You invest €20 000 at a nominal rate of 3.6% per year, compounded quarterly. Find the value FV of the investment after 6 years.
PV = €20 0003.6% / 4n = 6
FV = €
2.Time value of moneyHard
A loan of €25 000 is repaid with equal monthly payments over 5 years. The interest rate is 2.4% per year, compounded monthly. Find the monthly payment A.
P = €25 0002.4% / 12N = 60
A = €
3.NPV & IRRMedium
An investment of €20 000 gives these cash flows at the end of years 1 to 4: €8 000, €7 000, €9 000, €5 000. The cost of capital is 12%. Find the net present value NPV.
A project costs €40 000 and returns €26 000, €16 500, €28 500 at the end of years 1 to 3. Find its internal rate of return IRR in percent.
CF0 = −40 000CF1 = 26 000CF2 = 16 500CF3 = 28 500
IRR = %
5.Bond pricing & yieldMedium
A bond with a face value of €1 000 pays a 2% annual coupon in two half-yearly payments and matures in 7 years. The yield to maturity is 8% per year. Find the price P of the bond.
F = €1 000coupon = 2%YTM = 8%n = 7
P = €
6.Bond pricing & yieldHard
A bond with a face value of €1 000 and an annual coupon of 7% matures in 5 years and sells for €1 085. Find its yield to maturity YTM in percent.
F = €1 000coupon = 7%n = 5P = €1 085
YTM = %
7.CAPM & WACCMedium
A company has equity worth €12 000 000 and debt worth €6 000 000. Its cost of equity is 10%, its pre-tax cost of debt is 5% and the tax rate is 20%. Find the WACC.
A company has 4 000 000 shares trading at €48.50; the book value of its equity is €58 200 000. It just paid a dividend of €1.70 per share, and dividends grow by 5% per year. Its debt has a market value of €97 000 000 and a pre-tax cost of 5%. The tax rate is 28%. Find the WACC, using the dividend growth model for the cost of equity.
Find the sample standard deviation s of the data: 31, 60, 22, 22, 52, 49, 15.
n = 7
s =
10.Descriptive statisticsHard
Exam scores are normally distributed with mean 100 and standard deviation 20. Find the z-score z of a score of 108.
μ = 100σ = 20x = 108
z =
11.ProbabilityMedium
In how many ways N can a committee of 2 people be chosen from a group of 9? The order does not matter.
n = 9k = 2
N =
12.ProbabilityHard
A game costs €2 to play. You win €10 with probability 0.1 and €40 with probability 0.01; otherwise you win nothing. The stake is not returned. Find the expected net gain E(G) per game.
stake = €2€10: p = 0.1€40: p = 0.01
E(G) = €
13.Normal distributionMedium
Drag z so that the shaded area between −z and z under the standard normal curve is 0.9233. Find z to two decimals.
A = 0.9233
z =
14.Normal distributionHard
The IQ scores are normally distributed with mean 100 points and standard deviation 15 points. Find the value x below which 20% of them lie (the 20th percentile).
μ = 100σ = 15P = 20%
x = points
15.Confidence intervalsMedium
A sample of 16 items has mean 85.5 and standard deviation s = 3. The population is roughly normal. Find the margin of error E of a 99% confidence interval for the mean.
n = 16x̄ = 85.5s = 399%t(15) = 2.947
E =
16.Confidence intervalsHard
The population standard deviation is 30. How large a sample n do you need so that a 99% confidence interval for the mean has a margin of error of at most 5?
σ = 30E = 599%
n =
17.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
A sample of 81 students has a mean score of 98.76 and a sample standard deviation of 8. Find the test statistic t for H₀: μ = 100.
μ₀ = 100x̄ = 98.76s = 8n = 81
t =
18.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
How large must a sample be so that the 95% confidence interval for a mean has a margin of error of at most 2.5? The standard deviation is 5. Find the smallest sample size n.
σ = 5E = 2.595%
n =
19.Linear regression & correlationMedium
The table gives 6 paired observations of x = car age in years and y = price in k€. Find Pearson's correlation coefficient r.
n = 6
r =
20.Linear regression & correlationHard
The table gives 6 paired observations of x = load in kN and y = extension in mm. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. A new observation (3, 8) is made. Find its residual e = y − ŷ.
n = 6(3, 8)
e =
3Solutions
1.Time value of money
Answer: FV = 24798 €
Time value of money: money today is worth more than the same amount later, because it can earn interest. With interest rate i per period, an amount grows as FV = PV·(1 + i)n. A series of equal payments (an annuity) is valued by adding up each payment, which gives the annuity formulas.
Time value of money: money today is worth more than the same amount later, because it can earn interest. With interest rate i per period, an amount grows as FV = PV·(1 + i)n. A series of equal payments (an annuity) is valued by adding up each payment, which gives the annuity formulas.
Monthly rate and number of payments
i = 0.024/12 = 0.002
N = 12·5 = 60
Payment
The present value of N equal payments A is A·(1 − (1 + i)⁻ᴺ)/i. Set it equal to the loan and solve for A.
(1 + i)−N = 0.887
A = 25 000·0.002/(1 − 0.887) = €442.58
Answer
A = €442.58
3.NPV & IRR
Answer: NPV = 2307 €
Net present value: discount every cash flow back to today with the required rate of return r, then add them up: NPV = Σ CFₜ/(1 + r)ᵗ. A project with NPV > 0 earns more than r and adds value. The internal rate of return (IRR) is the rate at which NPV = 0.
Present value of each cash flow
CF0 = −20 000
CF1/(1 + 0.12)1 = 8 000/1.12 = 7 142.86
CF2/(1 + 0.12)2 = 7 000/1.254 = 5 580.36
CF3/(1 + 0.12)3 = 9 000/1.405 = 6 406.02
CF4/(1 + 0.12)4 = 5 000/1.574 = 3 177.59
Add them up
NPV = €2 306.83
Answer
NPV = €2 306.83
NPV is positive, so the project earns more than the required return.
4.NPV & IRR
Answer: IRR = 34.81 %
Net present value: discount every cash flow back to today with the required rate of return r, then add them up: NPV = Σ CFₜ/(1 + r)ᵗ. A project with NPV > 0 earns more than r and adds value. The internal rate of return (IRR) is the rate at which NPV = 0.
Bracket the IRR
NPV falls as the rate rises, so the IRR lies between a rate with positive NPV and one with negative NPV.
NPV(30%) = 2 735.55
NPV(35%) = −103.64
Narrow down
Linear interpolation gives a first estimate; repeating it (or a calculator's IRR function) gives the exact rate.
Bond pricing: a bond’s price is the present value of its cash flows, discounted at the yield to maturity (YTM): the coupons form an annuity and the face value is paid back at maturity. P = C·(1 − (1 + y)⁻ⁿ)/y + F/(1 + y)ⁿ. When the yield is above the coupon rate the bond trades below face value, and the other way round.
Per period
C = €10.00, i = 0.04, N = 14
Present value of the coupons
€10.00·(1 − 0.5775)/0.04 = €105.63
Present value of the face value
€1 000·0.5775 = €577.48
Price
P = €683.11
Answer
P = €683.11
The yield is above the coupon rate, so the bond sells at a discount.
6.Bond pricing & yield
Answer: YTM = 5.035 %
Bond pricing: a bond’s price is the present value of its cash flows, discounted at the yield to maturity (YTM): the coupons form an annuity and the face value is paid back at maturity. P = C·(1 − (1 + y)⁻ⁿ)/y + F/(1 + y)ⁿ. When the yield is above the coupon rate the bond trades below face value, and the other way round.
Equation for the yield
€1 085 = €70·(1 − (1 + y)⁻⁵)/y + €1 000/(1 + y)⁵
Solve numerically
P(5%) = €1 086.59, P(6%) = €1 042.12
YTM = 5.035%
Answer
YTM = 5.035%
7.CAPM & WACC
Answer: WACC = 8 %
Cost of capital: CAPM gives the return shareholders require: re = rf + β·(rm − rf). The weighted average cost of capital mixes equity and debt by their market values: WACC = E/V·re + D/V·rd·(1 − T), with V = E + D. Interest is tax-deductible, hence the (1 − T).
Weights
V = €18 000 000, E/V = 0.6667, D/V = 0.3333
WACC
WACC = 0.6667·10% + 0.3333·5%·(1 − 0.2) = 8%
Answer
WACC = 8%
8.CAPM & WACC
Answer: WACC = 6.987 %
Cost of capital: CAPM gives the return shareholders require: re = rf + β·(rm − rf). The weighted average cost of capital mixes equity and debt by their market values: WACC = E/V·re + D/V·rd·(1 − T), with V = E + D. Interest is tax-deductible, hence the (1 − T).
Descriptive statistics: the mean is the sum divided by n; the median is the middle value of the sorted data (the average of the two middle values when n is even). The sample standard deviation is s = √(Σ(x − x̄)²/(n − 1)). A z-score z = (x − μ)/σ says how many standard deviations a value lies from the mean.
Descriptive statistics: the mean is the sum divided by n; the median is the middle value of the sorted data (the average of the two middle values when n is even). The sample standard deviation is s = √(Σ(x − x̄)²/(n − 1)). A z-score z = (x − μ)/σ says how many standard deviations a value lies from the mean.
Standardise
z = (108 − 100)/20 = 0.4
Answer
z = 0.4
11.Probability
Answer: N = 36
Probability: with equally likely outcomes, P(A) = favourable/total. For independent events multiply: P(A and B) = P(A)·P(B). The complement often helps: P(at least one) = 1 − P(none). Binomial: in n independent trials with success probability p, P(X = k) = C(n, k)·pᵏ·(1 − p)ⁿ⁻ᵏ.
Combinations
C(9, 2) = (9·8)/(2·1) = 36
Answer
N = 36
12.Probability
Answer: E(G) = −0.6 €
Discrete random variables: a probability distribution lists every value x a variable can take with its probability p(x); the probabilities are between 0 and 1 and add up to 1. The expected value (mean) is E(X) = Σx·p(x), the long-run average. The variance is Var(X) = Σ(x − μ)²·p(x) = E(X²) − μ², and the standard deviation σ = √Var(X). For a linear change Y = aX + b: E(Y) = a·E(X) + b, Var(Y) = a²·Var(X) and σY = |a|·σX; adding a constant does not change the spread.
Net outcomes
G: 8 (p = 0.1), 38 (p = 0.01), −2 (p = 0.89)
Expected value
E(G) = 8·0.1 + 38·0.01 − 2·0.89 = −0.6 €
Answer
E(G) = −0.6 €
A negative value means you lose money on average.
13.Normal distribution
Answer: z = 1.77
From an area back to z: Φ(z) is the area to the left of z. For a left-tail area A, find z with Φ(z) = A in the table. A right-tail area A means Φ(z) = 1 − A. A central area A between −z and z leaves (1 − A)/2 in each tail, so Φ(z) = (1 + A)/2. For a value x, use x = μ + zσ.
Area to the left of z
Φ(z) = (1 + 0.9233)/2 = 0.9616
Read the z-table backwards
Find 0.9616 inside the table and read off z.
z = 1.77
Answer
z = 1.77
14.Normal distribution
Answer: x = 87.38 points
Normal distribution: convert a value x to a z-score, z = (x − μ)/σ, which counts standard deviations from the mean. A z-table (or Φ(z)) gives the area to the left of z, which is P(X < x). The area to the right is 1 − Φ(z), and the area between two values is the difference of their two areas.
z for the percentile
Φ(z) = 0.2 → z = −0.8416
Back to x
x = 100 + −0.8416·15 = 87.38 points
Answer
x = 87.38 points
15.Confidence intervals
Answer: E = 2.21
Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.
Critical value
df = n − 1 = 15, t = 2.947
Margin of error
E = 2.947·3/√16 = 2.21
Answer
E = 2.21
16.Confidence intervals
Answer: n = 239
Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.
Solve for n
n = (2.576·30/5)² = 238.9
Round up
A sample size is a whole number, and rounding down would make the margin too large.
n = 239
Answer
n = 239
17.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals
Answer: t = −1.395
Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).
Standard error
SE = 8/√81 = 8/9 = 0.8889
Test statistic
t = (98.76 − 100)/0.8889 = −1.395
Answer
t = −1.395
t0.025; df = 80 = 1.99
|t| < 1.99, so H₀ is not rejected at the 5% level (two-sided).
18.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals
Answer: n = 16
Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).
Solve for n
n = (1.96·5/2.5)² = 15.37
Round up
n = 16
Answer
n = 16
19.Linear regression & correlation
Answer: r = −0.9523
Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.
Means
x̄ = 21/6 = 3.5
ȳ = 104/6 = 17.33
Sums of squares and products
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 17.5
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = −46
Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² = 133.3
Correlation coefficient
r = −46/√(17.5·133.3) = −0.9523
Answer
r = −0.9523
20.Linear regression & correlation
Answer: e = −5.162
Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.
Means
x̄ = 42/6 = 7
ȳ = 164/6 = 27.33
Sums of squares and products
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 70
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 248
Regression line
b = 248/70 = 3.543
a = 27.33 − 3.543·7 = 2.533
ŷ = 2.533 + 3.543·x
Predicted value
ŷ = 2.533 + 3.543·3 = 13.16
Residual
e = 8 − 13.16 = −5.162
Answer
e = −5.162
The point lies below the line.
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