A property is expected to earn net rent of €10 000 next year. The rent is expected to grow by 1.5% per year forever. The required return is 5.5% per year. Find the value PV of the property today.
C1 = €10 000g = 1.5%r = 5.5%
PV = €
2.Time value of moneyHard
You save €250 at the end of every month for 6 years. The account pays 4.2% per year, compounded monthly. How much have you saved at the end? Find FV.
A = €2504.2% / 12N = 72
FV = €
3.NPV & IRRMedium
An investment of €30 000 gives these cash flows at the end of years 1 to 4: €12 000, €7 000, €15 000, €13 000. The cost of capital is 12%. Find the net present value NPV.
An investment of €10 000 returns €2 000 at the end of each year for 9 years. Find its internal rate of return IRR in percent.
C0 = €10 000CF = €2 000n = 9
IRR = %
5.Bond pricing & yieldMedium
A bond with a face value of €1 000 pays an annual coupon of 8% and matures in 7 years. Its yield to maturity changes from 5% to 7%. By how much ΔP does the bond price change?
F = €1 000coupon = 8%n = 7y1 = 5%y2 = 7%
ΔP = €
6.Bond pricing & yieldHard
A bond with a face value of €1 000 and an annual coupon of 8% matures in 3 years and sells for €940. Find its yield to maturity YTM in percent.
F = €1 000coupon = 8%n = 3P = €940
YTM = %
7.CAPM & WACCMedium
A company has equity worth €12 000 000 and debt worth €5 000 000. Its cost of equity is 14%, its pre-tax cost of debt is 5% and the tax rate is 20%. Find the WACC.
A company has 4 000 000 shares at €12.50 each and 40 000 bonds trading at €980 each. The pre-tax cost of debt is 3.5% and the tax rate is 20%. The share’s beta is 0.6, the risk-free rate 4% and the market return 8.5%. Find the WACC.
β = 0.6rf = 4%rm = 8.5%rd = 3.5%T = 20%
WACC = %
9.Descriptive statisticsMedium
Find the sample standard deviation s of the data: 17, 48, 38, 17, 47, 60.
n = 6
s =
10.Descriptive statisticsHard
A quantity is normally distributed with mean 60 and standard deviation 12. What proportion P of values is above 72?
μ = 60σ = 12x = 72
P =
11.ProbabilityMedium
For the distribution shown, find the variance Var(X) of X.
x: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5p(x): 0.2, 0.25, 0.35, 0.15, 0.05
Var(X) =
12.ProbabilityHard
A test has 9 multiple-choice questions. A student who guesses gets each one right with probability 0.1, independently. What is the probability P of exactly 4 correct answers?
n = 9p = 0.1k = 4
P =
13.Normal distributionMedium
The bag weights are normally distributed with mean 250 g and standard deviation 5 g. What fraction lies between 245.25 and 255.25 g? Give P as a decimal.
μ = 250σ = 5x1 = 245.25x2 = 255.25
P =
14.Normal distributionHard
Runner A's lap time X and runner B's lap time Y are independent and normal: X has mean 52 s and standard deviation 4 s, Y has mean 48 s and standard deviation 3 s. Find the probability P that X is greater than Y. Round z to two decimals.
μX = 52 s, σX = 4 sμY = 48 s, σY = 3 s
P =
15.Confidence intervalsMedium
The battery life of two phone models is compared. Model 1: 60 phones, mean 44 h, known standard deviation 7 h. Model 2: 100 phones, mean 55.5 h, known standard deviation 20 h. Find the upper limit of the 90% confidence interval for μ₁ − μ₂.
Two fertilisers are tested. Plot group 1: 8 plots, mean yield 68 kg, standard deviation 4 kg. Plot group 2: 9 plots, mean 76 kg, standard deviation 6.5 kg. Assume equal variances (pooled t, df = n₁ + n₂ − 2). Find the upper limit of the 90% confidence interval for μ₁ − μ₂.
9 employees take a typing test before and after a training course. For each person the difference d = after − before (words per minute) is recorded. The mean difference is 1.52 and the standard deviation of the differences is 5.7. Find the paired test statistic t for H₀: μd = 0.
n = 9d̄ = 1.52sd = 5.7
t =
18.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
A sample of 81 measurements has mean 99.2. The population standard deviation is 5. Find the upper limit U of the 95% confidence interval for the mean.
x̄ = 99.2σ = 5n = 8195%
U =
19.Linear regression & correlationMedium
The table gives 6 paired observations of x = hours studied and y = exam score. Find Pearson's correlation coefficient r.
n = 6
r =
20.Linear regression & correlationHard
The table gives 6 paired observations of x = hours studied and y = exam score. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. A new observation (2.5, 61) is made. Find its residual e = y − ŷ.
n = 6(2.5, 61)
e =
3Solutions
1.Time value of money
Answer: PV = 250000 €
Time value of money: money today is worth more than the same amount later, because it can earn interest. With interest rate i per period, an amount grows as FV = PV·(1 + i)n. A series of equal payments (an annuity) is valued by adding up each payment, which gives the annuity formulas.
Time value of money: money today is worth more than the same amount later, because it can earn interest. With interest rate i per period, an amount grows as FV = PV·(1 + i)n. A series of equal payments (an annuity) is valued by adding up each payment, which gives the annuity formulas.
You paid in €18 000 yourself; the rest is interest.
3.NPV & IRR
Answer: NPV = 5233 €
Net present value: discount every cash flow back to today with the required rate of return r, then add them up: NPV = Σ CFₜ/(1 + r)ᵗ. A project with NPV > 0 earns more than r and adds value. The internal rate of return (IRR) is the rate at which NPV = 0.
Present value of each cash flow
CF0 = −30 000
CF1/(1 + 0.12)1 = 12 000/1.12 = 10 714.29
CF2/(1 + 0.12)2 = 7 000/1.254 = 5 580.36
CF3/(1 + 0.12)3 = 15 000/1.405 = 10 676.70
CF4/(1 + 0.12)4 = 13 000/1.574 = 8 261.74
Add them up
NPV = €5 233.08
Answer
NPV = €5 233.08
NPV is positive, so the project earns more than the required return.
4.NPV & IRR
Answer: IRR = 13.7 %
Net present value: discount every cash flow back to today with the required rate of return r, then add them up: NPV = Σ CFₜ/(1 + r)ᵗ. A project with NPV > 0 earns more than r and adds value. The internal rate of return (IRR) is the rate at which NPV = 0.
Required annuity factor
(1 − (1 + i)−9)/i = 10 000/2 000 = 5
Solve for the rate
The annuity factor falls as the rate rises; bracket the rate and narrow down.
i = 13%: 5.132
i = 14%: 4.946
IRR = 13.7%
Answer
IRR = 13.7%
5.Bond pricing & yield
Answer: ΔP = −119.7 €
Bond pricing: a bond’s price is the present value of its cash flows, discounted at the yield to maturity (YTM): the coupons form an annuity and the face value is paid back at maturity. P = C·(1 − (1 + y)⁻ⁿ)/y + F/(1 + y)ⁿ. When the yield is above the coupon rate the bond trades below face value, and the other way round.
Bond pricing: a bond’s price is the present value of its cash flows, discounted at the yield to maturity (YTM): the coupons form an annuity and the face value is paid back at maturity. P = C·(1 − (1 + y)⁻ⁿ)/y + F/(1 + y)ⁿ. When the yield is above the coupon rate the bond trades below face value, and the other way round.
Equation for the yield
€940 = €80·(1 − (1 + y)⁻³)/y + €1 000/(1 + y)³
Solve numerically
P(10%) = €950.26, P(11%) = €926.69
YTM = 10.43%
Answer
YTM = 10.43%
7.CAPM & WACC
Answer: WACC = 11.06 %
Cost of capital: CAPM gives the return shareholders require: re = rf + β·(rm − rf). The weighted average cost of capital mixes equity and debt by their market values: WACC = E/V·re + D/V·rd·(1 − T), with V = E + D. Interest is tax-deductible, hence the (1 − T).
Weights
V = €17 000 000, E/V = 0.7059, D/V = 0.2941
WACC
WACC = 0.7059·14% + 0.2941·5%·(1 − 0.2) = 11.06%
Answer
WACC = 11.06%
8.CAPM & WACC
Answer: WACC = 4.986 %
Cost of capital: CAPM gives the return shareholders require: re = rf + β·(rm − rf). The weighted average cost of capital mixes equity and debt by their market values: WACC = E/V·re + D/V·rd·(1 − T), with V = E + D. Interest is tax-deductible, hence the (1 − T).
Descriptive statistics: the mean is the sum divided by n; the median is the middle value of the sorted data (the average of the two middle values when n is even). The sample standard deviation is s = √(Σ(x − x̄)²/(n − 1)). A z-score z = (x − μ)/σ says how many standard deviations a value lies from the mean.
Descriptive statistics: the mean is the sum divided by n; the median is the middle value of the sorted data (the average of the two middle values when n is even). The sample standard deviation is s = √(Σ(x − x̄)²/(n − 1)). A z-score z = (x − μ)/σ says how many standard deviations a value lies from the mean.
Standardise
z = 1
Standard normal table
Φ(1) = 0.8413
P = 1 − 0.8413 = 0.1587
Answer
P = 0.1587
11.Probability
Answer: Var(X) = 1.24
Discrete random variables: a probability distribution lists every value x a variable can take with its probability p(x); the probabilities are between 0 and 1 and add up to 1. The expected value (mean) is E(X) = Σx·p(x), the long-run average. The variance is Var(X) = Σ(x − μ)²·p(x) = E(X²) − μ², and the standard deviation σ = √Var(X). For a linear change Y = aX + b: E(Y) = a·E(X) + b, Var(Y) = a²·Var(X) and σY = |a|·σX; adding a constant does not change the spread.
Probability: with equally likely outcomes, P(A) = favourable/total. For independent events multiply: P(A and B) = P(A)·P(B). The complement often helps: P(at least one) = 1 − P(none). Binomial: in n independent trials with success probability p, P(X = k) = C(n, k)·pᵏ·(1 − p)ⁿ⁻ᵏ.
Normal distribution: convert a value x to a z-score, z = (x − μ)/σ, which counts standard deviations from the mean. A z-table (or Φ(z)) gives the area to the left of z, which is P(X < x). The area to the right is 1 − Φ(z), and the area between two values is the difference of their two areas.
z-scores
z₁ = (245.25 − 250)/5 = −0.95
z₂ = (255.25 − 250)/5 = 1.05
Area between
P = Φ(1.05) − Φ(−0.95) = 0.8531 − 0.1711 = 0.6821
Answer
P = 0.6821
14.Normal distribution
Answer: P = 0.7881
Sums and differences of normal variables: if X and Y are independent and normal, X + Y and X − Y are normal too. Means add or subtract: E(X ± Y) = μX ± μY. Variances always add, also for a difference: Var(X ± Y) = σX² + σY², so σ = √(σX² + σY²). Standard deviations never add directly. The total of n independent items with the same distribution has mean n·μ and standard deviation σ·√n. Then standardise as usual: z = (x − mean)/σ and read Φ(z).
Distribution of the difference
μ = 52 − 48 = 4 s, σ = 5 s
Standardise
z = (0 − 4)/5 = −0.8
Probability
P = 1 − Φ(−0.8) = 0.7881
Answer
P = 0.7881
15.Confidence intervals
Answer: upper limit = −7.89 h
Interval for a difference: estimate ± critical value × standard error. For two independent means with known σ: SE = √(σ₁²/n₁ + σ₂²/n₂) and z. With equal unknown variances: pooled s_p and t with n₁ + n₂ − 2 degrees of freedom. For paired data, work with the differences: d̄ ± t·s_d/√n.
Point estimate
x̄₁ − x̄₂ = 44 − 55.5 = −11.5
Standard error
SE = √(7²/60 + 20²/100) = 2.195
Margin of error
E = 1.645·2.195 = 3.61
Interval
−11.5 ± 3.61 → [−15.11, −7.89]
Answer
upper limit = −7.89 h
The interval does not contain 0, so the means differ significantly.
16.Confidence intervals
Answer: upper limit = −3.334 kg
Interval for a difference: estimate ± critical value × standard error. For two independent means with known σ: SE = √(σ₁²/n₁ + σ₂²/n₂) and z. With equal unknown variances: pooled s_p and t with n₁ + n₂ − 2 degrees of freedom. For paired data, work with the differences: d̄ ± t·s_d/√n.
Pooled standard deviation
sp² = (7·4² + 8·6.5²)/15 = 30
sp = 5.477
Margin of error
E = 1.753·5.477·√(1/8 + 1/9) = 4.666
Interval
−8 ± 4.666 → [−12.67, −3.334]
Answer
upper limit = −3.334 kg
17.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals
Answer: t = 0.8
Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).
Standard error of the mean difference
SE = 5.7/√9 = 1.9
Test statistic
t = 1.52/1.9 = 0.8
Answer
t = 0.8
With df = 8, the two-sided 5% critical value is 2.306; |t| is smaller, so H₀ is not rejected.
18.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals
Answer: U = 100.3
Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).
Margin of error
E = 1.96·5/√81 = 1.089
Interval limit
U = 99.2 + 1.089 = 100.3
Answer
U = 100.3
19.Linear regression & correlation
Answer: r = 0.9498
Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.
Means
x̄ = 33/6 = 5.5
ȳ = 377/6 = 62.83
Sums of squares and products
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 17.5
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 70.5
Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² = 314.8
Correlation coefficient
r = 70.5/√(17.5·314.8) = 0.9498
Answer
r = 0.9498
20.Linear regression & correlation
Answer: e = 5.495
Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.
Means
x̄ = 21/6 = 3.5
ȳ = 356/6 = 59.33
Sums of squares and products
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 17.5
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 67
Regression line
b = 67/17.5 = 3.829
a = 59.33 − 3.829·3.5 = 45.93
ŷ = 45.93 + 3.829·x
Predicted value
ŷ = 45.93 + 3.829·2.5 = 55.5
Residual
e = 61 − 55.5 = 5.495
Answer
e = 5.495
The point lies above the line.
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