You invest €20 000 at 7% per year with continuous compounding. Find the value FV after 11 years.
PV = €20 000r = 7%t = 11
FV = €
2.Time value of moneyHard
A loan of €25 000 is repaid with equal monthly payments over 3 years. The interest rate is 5.4% per year, compounded monthly. Find the monthly payment A.
P = €25 0005.4% / 12N = 36
A = €
3.NPV & IRRMedium
An investment of €75 000 gives these cash flows at the end of years 1 to 3: €30 000, €33 000, €22 000. The cost of capital is 6%. Find the net present value NPV.
A project costs €20 000 and returns €8 500, €13 000 at the end of years 1 to 2. Find its internal rate of return IRR in percent.
CF0 = −20 000CF1 = 8 500CF2 = 13 000
IRR = %
5.Bond pricing & yieldMedium
A bond with a face value of €1 000 pays an annual coupon of 6% and matures in 8 years. Its yield to maturity changes from 9% to 8%. By how much ΔP does the bond price change?
F = €1 000coupon = 6%n = 8y1 = 9%y2 = 8%
ΔP = €
6.Bond pricing & yieldHard
A bond with 10 years to maturity (face value €1 000, annual coupon 7%) sells for €1 154. The issuer can call it in 3 years at a call price of €1 070. Find the yield to call YTC in percent.
F = €1 000coupon = 7%P = €1 154call price = €1 070call in 3 years
YTC = %
7.CAPM & WACCMedium
A company has equity worth €10 000 000 and debt worth €6 000 000. Its cost of equity is 10%, its pre-tax cost of debt is 3.5% and the tax rate is 28%. Find the WACC.
A company has 2 000 000 shares trading at €28.00; the book value of its equity is €22 400 000. It just paid a dividend of €1.90 per share, and dividends grow by 2% per year. Its debt has a market value of €56 000 000 and a pre-tax cost of 6%. The tax rate is 20%. Find the WACC, using the dividend growth model for the cost of equity.
Find the sample standard deviation s of the data: 26, 57, 39, 25, 59, 35.
n = 6
s =
10.Descriptive statisticsHard
Exam scores are normally distributed with mean 100 and standard deviation 20. Find the z-score z of a score of 90.
μ = 100σ = 20x = 90
z =
11.ProbabilityMedium
For the distribution shown, find the variance Var(X) of X.
x: 1, 2, 3, 4p(x): 0.3, 0.2, 0.35, 0.15
Var(X) =
12.ProbabilityHard
12 components are tested, and each one fails with probability 0.25, independently. What is the probability P that at most one fails?
n = 12p = 0.25
P =
13.Normal distributionMedium
The battery lifetimes are normally distributed with mean 500 h and standard deviation 40 h. What fraction lies between 454 and 534 h? Give P as a decimal.
μ = 500σ = 40x1 = 454x2 = 534
P =
14.Normal distributionHard
The heights of adult men are normally distributed with mean 178 cm and standard deviation 7 cm. Drag the cut-off so the shaded top 5% is to the right of it. Find the cut-off x.
μ = 178 cmσ = 7 cm5%
x = cm
15.Confidence intervalsMedium
A sample of 6 items has mean 54 and standard deviation s = 18.5. The population is roughly normal. Find the upper limit of the 99% confidence interval for the mean.
n = 6x̄ = 54s = 18.599%t(5) = 4.032
upper limit =
16.Confidence intervalsHard
The population standard deviation is 12. How large a sample n do you need so that a 99% confidence interval for the mean has a margin of error of at most 1?
σ = 12E = 199%
n =
17.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
20 employees take a typing test before and after a training course. For each person the difference d = after − before (words per minute) is recorded. The mean difference is 1.45 and the standard deviation of the differences is 3.6. Find the paired test statistic t for H₀: μd = 0.
n = 20d̄ = 1.45sd = 3.6
t =
18.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
How large must a sample be so that the 95% confidence interval for a mean has a margin of error of at most 2.5? The standard deviation is 10. Find the smallest sample size n.
σ = 10E = 2.595%
n =
19.Linear regression & correlationMedium
The table gives 6 paired observations of x = temperature in °C and y = ice creams sold. Their sums are given. Find Pearson's correlation coefficient r from these sums.
The table gives 5 paired observations of x = advertising spend in k€ and y = sales in k€. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. Predict ŷ for x = 3.
n = 5x = 3
ŷ =
3Solutions
1.Time value of money
Answer: FV = 43195 €
Time value of money: money today is worth more than the same amount later, because it can earn interest. With interest rate i per period, an amount grows as FV = PV·(1 + i)n. A series of equal payments (an annuity) is valued by adding up each payment, which gives the annuity formulas.
Exponent
r·t = 0.07·11 = 0.77
e0.77 = 2.16
Future value
FV = 20 000·2.16 = €43 195.33
Answer
FV = €43 195.33
2.Time value of money
Answer: A = 753.8 €
Time value of money: money today is worth more than the same amount later, because it can earn interest. With interest rate i per period, an amount grows as FV = PV·(1 + i)n. A series of equal payments (an annuity) is valued by adding up each payment, which gives the annuity formulas.
Monthly rate and number of payments
i = 0.054000000000000006/12 = 0.0045
N = 12·3 = 36
Payment
The present value of N equal payments A is A·(1 − (1 + i)⁻ᴺ)/i. Set it equal to the loan and solve for A.
(1 + i)−N = 0.8508
A = 25 000·0.0045/(1 − 0.8508) = €753.77
Answer
A = €753.77
3.NPV & IRR
Answer: NPV = 1143 €
Net present value: discount every cash flow back to today with the required rate of return r, then add them up: NPV = Σ CFₜ/(1 + r)ᵗ. A project with NPV > 0 earns more than r and adds value. The internal rate of return (IRR) is the rate at which NPV = 0.
Present value of each cash flow
CF0 = −75 000
CF1/(1 + 0.06)1 = 30 000/1.06 = 28 301.89
CF2/(1 + 0.06)2 = 33 000/1.124 = 29 369.88
CF3/(1 + 0.06)3 = 22 000/1.191 = 18 471.62
Add them up
NPV = €1 143.39
Answer
NPV = €1 143.39
NPV is positive, so the project earns more than the required return.
4.NPV & IRR
Answer: IRR = 4.626 %
Net present value: discount every cash flow back to today with the required rate of return r, then add them up: NPV = Σ CFₜ/(1 + r)ᵗ. A project with NPV > 0 earns more than r and adds value. The internal rate of return (IRR) is the rate at which NPV = 0.
Bracket the IRR
NPV falls as the rate rises, so the IRR lies between a rate with positive NPV and one with negative NPV.
NPV(0%) = 1 500.00
NPV(5%) = −113.38
Narrow down
Linear interpolation gives a first estimate; repeating it (or a calculator's IRR function) gives the exact rate.
Bond pricing: a bond’s price is the present value of its cash flows, discounted at the yield to maturity (YTM): the coupons form an annuity and the face value is paid back at maturity. P = C·(1 − (1 + y)⁻ⁿ)/y + F/(1 + y)ⁿ. When the yield is above the coupon rate the bond trades below face value, and the other way round.
Bond pricing: a bond’s price is the present value of its cash flows, discounted at the yield to maturity (YTM): the coupons form an annuity and the face value is paid back at maturity. P = C·(1 − (1 + y)⁻ⁿ)/y + F/(1 + y)ⁿ. When the yield is above the coupon rate the bond trades below face value, and the other way round.
Equation for the yield
1154 = 70·(1 − (1 + y)−3)/y + 1070/(1 + y)3
Solve numerically
y = 3%: €1 177.20
y = 4%: €1 145.48
YTC = 3.728%
Answer
YTC = 3.728%
The yield to maturity is 5.005%. Investors in a premium bond expect it to be called, so the lower yield to call is the more realistic one.
7.CAPM & WACC
Answer: WACC = 7.195 %
Cost of capital: CAPM gives the return shareholders require: re = rf + β·(rm − rf). The weighted average cost of capital mixes equity and debt by their market values: WACC = E/V·re + D/V·rd·(1 − T), with V = E + D. Interest is tax-deductible, hence the (1 − T).
Weights
V = €16 000 000, E/V = 0.625, D/V = 0.375
WACC
WACC = 0.625·10% + 0.375·3.5%·(1 − 0.28) = 7.195%
Answer
WACC = 7.195%
8.CAPM & WACC
Answer: WACC = 6.861 %
Cost of capital: CAPM gives the return shareholders require: re = rf + β·(rm − rf). The weighted average cost of capital mixes equity and debt by their market values: WACC = E/V·re + D/V·rd·(1 − T), with V = E + D. Interest is tax-deductible, hence the (1 − T).
Cost of equity
D1 = 1.9·1.02 = €1.94
re = 1.938/28 + 0.02 = 8.921%
Market values
E = 2 000 000·€28.00 = €56 000 000
V = €112 000 000, E/V = 0.5, D/V = 0.5
WACC
WACC = 0.5·8.921% + 0.5·6%·(1 − 0.2) = 6.861%
Answer
WACC = 6.861%
9.Descriptive statistics
Answer: s = 14.81
Descriptive statistics: the mean is the sum divided by n; the median is the middle value of the sorted data (the average of the two middle values when n is even). The sample standard deviation is s = √(Σ(x − x̄)²/(n − 1)). A z-score z = (x − μ)/σ says how many standard deviations a value lies from the mean.
Descriptive statistics: the mean is the sum divided by n; the median is the middle value of the sorted data (the average of the two middle values when n is even). The sample standard deviation is s = √(Σ(x − x̄)²/(n − 1)). A z-score z = (x − μ)/σ says how many standard deviations a value lies from the mean.
Standardise
z = (90 − 100)/20 = −0.5
Answer
z = −0.5
11.Probability
Answer: Var(X) = 1.128
Discrete random variables: a probability distribution lists every value x a variable can take with its probability p(x); the probabilities are between 0 and 1 and add up to 1. The expected value (mean) is E(X) = Σx·p(x), the long-run average. The variance is Var(X) = Σ(x − μ)²·p(x) = E(X²) − μ², and the standard deviation σ = √Var(X). For a linear change Y = aX + b: E(Y) = a·E(X) + b, Var(Y) = a²·Var(X) and σY = |a|·σX; adding a constant does not change the spread.
Mean
μ = 1·0.3 + 2·0.2 + 3·0.35 + 4·0.15 = 2.35
Mean of the squares
E(X²) = 1·0.3 + 4·0.2 + 9·0.35 + 16·0.15 = 6.65
Variance
Var(X) = 6.65 − 2.35² = 1.128
Answer
Var(X) = 1.128
12.Probability
Answer: P = 0.1584
Probability: with equally likely outcomes, P(A) = favourable/total. For independent events multiply: P(A and B) = P(A)·P(B). The complement often helps: P(at least one) = 1 − P(none). Binomial: in n independent trials with success probability p, P(X = k) = C(n, k)·pᵏ·(1 − p)ⁿ⁻ᵏ.
Zero and one failure
P(X = 0) = 0.7512 = 0.03168
P(X = 1) = 12·0.25·0.7511 = 0.1267
Add them
P = 0.03168 + 0.1267 = 0.1584
Answer
P = 0.1584
13.Normal distribution
Answer: P = 0.6773
Normal distribution: convert a value x to a z-score, z = (x − μ)/σ, which counts standard deviations from the mean. A z-table (or Φ(z)) gives the area to the left of z, which is P(X < x). The area to the right is 1 − Φ(z), and the area between two values is the difference of their two areas.
z-scores
z₁ = (454 − 500)/40 = −1.15
z₂ = (534 − 500)/40 = 0.85
Area between
P = Φ(0.85) − Φ(−1.15) = 0.8023 − 0.1251 = 0.6773
Answer
P = 0.6773
14.Normal distribution
Answer: x = 189.5 cm
From an area back to z: Φ(z) is the area to the left of z. For a left-tail area A, find z with Φ(z) = A in the table. A right-tail area A means Φ(z) = 1 − A. A central area A between −z and z leaves (1 − A)/2 in each tail, so Φ(z) = (1 + A)/2. For a value x, use x = μ + zσ.
Area to the left
Φ(z) = 0.95
z from the table
z ≈ 1.64
Back to the original units
x = 178 + 1.64·7 = 189.5 cm
Answer
x = 189.5 cm
15.Confidence intervals
Answer: upper limit = 84.45
Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.
Critical value
df = n − 1 = 5, t = 4.032
Margin of error
E = 4.032·18.5/√6 = 30.45
Interval
54 ± 30.45 → [23.55, 84.45]
Answer
upper limit = 84.45
16.Confidence intervals
Answer: n = 956
Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.
Solve for n
n = (2.576·12/1)² = 955.6
Round up
A sample size is a whole number, and rounding down would make the margin too large.
n = 956
Answer
n = 956
17.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals
Answer: t = 1.801
Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).
Standard error of the mean difference
SE = 3.6/√20 = 0.805
Test statistic
t = 1.45/0.805 = 1.801
Answer
t = 1.801
With df = 19, the two-sided 5% critical value is 2.093; |t| is smaller, so H₀ is not rejected.
18.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals
Answer: n = 62
Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).
Solve for n
n = (1.96·10/2.5)² = 61.47
Round up
n = 62
Answer
n = 62
19.Linear regression & correlation
Answer: r = 0.997
Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.
Centred sums
Sxy = 11703 − 129·507/6 = 802.5
Sxx = 2931 − 129²/6 = 157.5
Syy = 46955 − 507²/6 = 4114
Correlation coefficient
r = 802.5/√(157.5·4114) = 0.997
Answer
r = 0.997
20.Linear regression & correlation
Answer: ŷ = 45.4
Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.
Means
x̄ = 30/5 = 6
ȳ = 251/5 = 50.2
Sums of squares and products
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 40
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 64
Regression line
b = 64/40 = 1.6
a = 50.2 − 1.6·6 = 40.6
ŷ = 40.6 + 1.6·x
Prediction
ŷ = 40.6 + 1.6·3 = 45.4
Answer
ŷ = 45.4
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