An annuity pays €8 000 at the end of each year for 20 years. The interest rate is 4% per year. Find the present value PV of the annuity.
A = €8 000i = 4%n = 20
PV = €
2.Time value of moneyHard
You save €500 at the end of every month for 30 years. The account pays 3.6% per year, compounded monthly. How much have you saved at the end? Find FV.
A = €5003.6% / 12N = 360
FV = €
3.NPV & IRRMedium
An investment of €45 000 gives these cash flows at the end of years 1 to 3: €21 000, €14 000, €18 000. The cost of capital is 5%. Find the net present value NPV.
A project costs €80 000 today. Its cash flow is €7 000 at the end of year 1 and grows by 3% per year until the last cash flow at the end of year 10. The cost of capital is 10%. Find the net present value NPV.
C0 = €80 000CF1 = €7 000g = 3%n = 10r = 10%
NPV = €
5.Bond pricing & yieldMedium
A bond with a face value of €1 000 matures in 8 years and pays annual coupons. It sells for €1 269 when the yield to maturity is 4%. Find the coupon rate c in percent.
F = €1 000n = 8P = €1 269YTM = 4%
c = %
6.Bond pricing & yieldHard
A bond with a face value of €1 000 pays a 4% annual coupon in two half-yearly payments and matures in 9 years. It sells for €1 078. Find its yield to maturity YTM as an annual rate (twice the half-yearly yield), in percent.
F = €1 000coupon = 4% (2×)n = 9P = €1 078
YTM = %
7.CAPM & WACCMedium
A company has equity worth €8 000 000 and debt worth €6 000 000. Its cost of equity is 11%, its pre-tax cost of debt is 7% and the tax rate is 25%. Find the WACC.
A company has 2 500 000 shares at €23.00 each and 5 000 bonds trading at €1 000 each. The pre-tax cost of debt is 4% and the tax rate is 20%. The share’s beta is 1.3, the risk-free rate 1.5% and the market return 7%. Find the WACC.
β = 1.3rf = 1.5%rm = 7%rd = 4%T = 20%
WACC = %
9.Descriptive statisticsMedium
Find the sample standard deviation s of the data: 47, 49, 28, 60, 47, 43.
n = 6
s =
10.Descriptive statisticsHard
A quantity is normally distributed with mean 500 and standard deviation 40. What proportion P of values is above 440?
μ = 500σ = 40x = 440
P =
11.ProbabilityMedium
A bag holds 8 red and 4 blue balls. You draw two balls without putting the first one back. What is the probability P that both are red?
8 / 4
P =
12.ProbabilityHard
A game costs €1 to play. You win €3 with probability 0.15 and €50 with probability 0.01; otherwise you win nothing. The stake is not returned. Find the expected net gain E(G) per game.
stake = €1€3: p = 0.15€50: p = 0.01
E(G) = €
13.Normal distributionMedium
The battery lifetimes are normally distributed with mean 500 h and standard deviation 40 h. What fraction lies between 482 and 562 h? Give P as a decimal.
μ = 500σ = 40x1 = 482x2 = 562
P =
14.Normal distributionHard
The delivery times are normally distributed with mean 32 min and standard deviation 6 min. Find the value x below which 90% of them lie (the 90th percentile).
μ = 32σ = 6P = 90%
x = min
15.Confidence intervalsMedium
A sample of 12 items has mean 34.5 and standard deviation s = 10. The population is roughly normal. Find the lower limit of the 90% confidence interval for the mean.
n = 12x̄ = 34.5s = 1090%t(11) = 1.796
lower limit =
16.Confidence intervalsHard
The population standard deviation is 7. How large a sample n do you need so that a 99% confidence interval for the mean has a margin of error of at most 1?
σ = 7E = 199%
n =
17.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
A sample of 64 students has a mean score of 122.9 and a sample standard deviation of 8. Find the test statistic t for H₀: μ = 120.
μ₀ = 120x̄ = 122.9s = 8n = 64
t =
18.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
A one-sided z test of H₀: μ = 80 against H₁: μ > 80 is done at α = 0.05 with a sample of 64; the standard deviation is known to be 8. In reality the mean is 81.5. Find the probability of a Type II error β in percent.
μ₀ = 80μ = 81.5σ = 8n = 64α = 0.05
β = %
19.Linear regression & correlationMedium
The table gives 5 paired observations of x = load in kN and y = extension in mm. Find the coefficient of determination r² of the least-squares line.
n = 5
r² =
20.Linear regression & correlationHard
The table gives 5 paired observations of x = load in kN and y = extension in mm. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. A new observation (5, 8) is made. Find its residual e = y − ŷ.
n = 5(5, 8)
e =
3Solutions
1.Time value of money
Answer: PV = 108723 €
Time value of money: money today is worth more than the same amount later, because it can earn interest. With interest rate i per period, an amount grows as FV = PV·(1 + i)n. A series of equal payments (an annuity) is valued by adding up each payment, which gives the annuity formulas.
Annuity factor
(1 − (1 + i)−n)/i = (1 − 0.4564)/0.04 = 13.59
Present value
PV = 8 000·13.59 = €108 722.61
Answer
PV = €108 722.61
2.Time value of money
Answer: FV = 323320 €
Time value of money: money today is worth more than the same amount later, because it can earn interest. With interest rate i per period, an amount grows as FV = PV·(1 + i)n. A series of equal payments (an annuity) is valued by adding up each payment, which gives the annuity formulas.
You paid in €180 000 yourself; the rest is interest.
3.NPV & IRR
Answer: NPV = 3247 €
Net present value: discount every cash flow back to today with the required rate of return r, then add them up: NPV = Σ CFₜ/(1 + r)ᵗ. A project with NPV > 0 earns more than r and adds value. The internal rate of return (IRR) is the rate at which NPV = 0.
Present value of each cash flow
CF0 = −45 000
CF1/(1 + 0.05)1 = 21 000/1.05 = 20 000.00
CF2/(1 + 0.05)2 = 14 000/1.103 = 12 698.41
CF3/(1 + 0.05)3 = 18 000/1.158 = 15 549.08
Add them up
NPV = €3 247.49
Answer
NPV = €3 247.49
NPV is positive, so the project earns more than the required return.
4.NPV & IRR
Answer: NPV = −31814 €
Net present value: discount every cash flow back to today with the required rate of return r, then add them up: NPV = Σ CFₜ/(1 + r)ᵗ. A project with NPV > 0 earns more than r and adds value. The internal rate of return (IRR) is the rate at which NPV = 0.
Present value of the growing annuity
((1.03)/(1.1))10 = 0.5181
PV = 7 000/(0.1 − 0.03)·(1 − 0.5181) = 48 186.21
NPV
NPV = 48 186.21 − 80 000 = −€31 813.79
Answer
NPV = −€31 813.79
NPV is negative, so the project earns less than the required return.
5.Bond pricing & yield
Answer: c = 7.995 %
Bond pricing: a bond’s price is the present value of its cash flows, discounted at the yield to maturity (YTM): the coupons form an annuity and the face value is paid back at maturity. P = C·(1 − (1 + y)⁻ⁿ)/y + F/(1 + y)ⁿ. When the yield is above the coupon rate the bond trades below face value, and the other way round.
Present value of the face value
1000·(1 + 0.04)−8 = €730.69
Coupon
C = (1269 − 730.69)/6.733 = €79.95
Coupon rate
c = 79.95/1000 = 7.995%
Answer
c = 7.995%
6.Bond pricing & yield
Answer: YTM = 3.004 %
Bond pricing: a bond’s price is the present value of its cash flows, discounted at the yield to maturity (YTM): the coupons form an annuity and the face value is paid back at maturity. P = C·(1 − (1 + y)⁻ⁿ)/y + F/(1 + y)ⁿ. When the yield is above the coupon rate the bond trades below face value, and the other way round.
Per period
C = €20.00, N = 18
Solve numerically
i = 1.502% per half-year
YTM
YTM = 2·1.502% = 3.004%
Answer
YTM = 3.004%
7.CAPM & WACC
Answer: WACC = 8.536 %
Cost of capital: CAPM gives the return shareholders require: re = rf + β·(rm − rf). The weighted average cost of capital mixes equity and debt by their market values: WACC = E/V·re + D/V·rd·(1 − T), with V = E + D. Interest is tax-deductible, hence the (1 − T).
Weights
V = €14 000 000, E/V = 0.5714, D/V = 0.4286
WACC
WACC = 0.5714·11% + 0.4286·7%·(1 − 0.25) = 8.536%
Answer
WACC = 8.536%
8.CAPM & WACC
Answer: WACC = 8.214 %
Cost of capital: CAPM gives the return shareholders require: re = rf + β·(rm − rf). The weighted average cost of capital mixes equity and debt by their market values: WACC = E/V·re + D/V·rd·(1 − T), with V = E + D. Interest is tax-deductible, hence the (1 − T).
Market values
E = 2 500 000·€23.00 = €57 500 000
D = 5 000·€1 000 = €5 000 000
Cost of equity (CAPM)
re = 1.5% + 1.3·5.5% = 8.65%
Weights
V = €62 500 000, E/V = 0.92, D/V = 0.08
WACC
WACC = 0.92·8.65% + 0.08·4%·(1 − 0.2) = 8.214%
Answer
WACC = 8.214%
9.Descriptive statistics
Answer: s = 10.39
Descriptive statistics: the mean is the sum divided by n; the median is the middle value of the sorted data (the average of the two middle values when n is even). The sample standard deviation is s = √(Σ(x − x̄)²/(n − 1)). A z-score z = (x − μ)/σ says how many standard deviations a value lies from the mean.
Descriptive statistics: the mean is the sum divided by n; the median is the middle value of the sorted data (the average of the two middle values when n is even). The sample standard deviation is s = √(Σ(x − x̄)²/(n − 1)). A z-score z = (x − μ)/σ says how many standard deviations a value lies from the mean.
Standardise
z = −1.5
Standard normal table
Φ(−1.5) = 0.06681
P = 1 − 0.06681 = 0.9332
Answer
P = 0.9332
11.Probability
Answer: P = 0.4242
Probability: with equally likely outcomes, P(A) = favourable/total. For independent events multiply: P(A and B) = P(A)·P(B). The complement often helps: P(at least one) = 1 − P(none). Binomial: in n independent trials with success probability p, P(X = k) = C(n, k)·pᵏ·(1 − p)ⁿ⁻ᵏ.
First and second draw
P = 8/12 · 7/11 = 56/132 = 0.4242
Answer
P = 0.4242
12.Probability
Answer: E(G) = −0.05 €
Discrete random variables: a probability distribution lists every value x a variable can take with its probability p(x); the probabilities are between 0 and 1 and add up to 1. The expected value (mean) is E(X) = Σx·p(x), the long-run average. The variance is Var(X) = Σ(x − μ)²·p(x) = E(X²) − μ², and the standard deviation σ = √Var(X). For a linear change Y = aX + b: E(Y) = a·E(X) + b, Var(Y) = a²·Var(X) and σY = |a|·σX; adding a constant does not change the spread.
Net outcomes
G: 2 (p = 0.15), 49 (p = 0.01), −1 (p = 0.84)
Expected value
E(G) = 2·0.15 + 49·0.01 − 1·0.84 = −0.05 €
Answer
E(G) = −0.05 €
A negative value means you lose money on average.
13.Normal distribution
Answer: P = 0.6131
Normal distribution: convert a value x to a z-score, z = (x − μ)/σ, which counts standard deviations from the mean. A z-table (or Φ(z)) gives the area to the left of z, which is P(X < x). The area to the right is 1 − Φ(z), and the area between two values is the difference of their two areas.
z-scores
z₁ = (482 − 500)/40 = −0.45
z₂ = (562 − 500)/40 = 1.55
Area between
P = Φ(1.55) − Φ(−0.45) = 0.9394 − 0.3264 = 0.6131
Answer
P = 0.6131
14.Normal distribution
Answer: x = 39.69 min
Normal distribution: convert a value x to a z-score, z = (x − μ)/σ, which counts standard deviations from the mean. A z-table (or Φ(z)) gives the area to the left of z, which is P(X < x). The area to the right is 1 − Φ(z), and the area between two values is the difference of their two areas.
z for the percentile
Φ(z) = 0.9 → z = 1.282
Back to x
x = 32 + 1.282·6 = 39.69 min
Answer
x = 39.69 min
15.Confidence intervals
Answer: lower limit = 29.32
Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.
Critical value
df = n − 1 = 11, t = 1.796
Margin of error
E = 1.796·10/√12 = 5.185
Interval
34.5 ± 5.185 → [29.32, 39.68]
Answer
lower limit = 29.32
16.Confidence intervals
Answer: n = 326
Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.
Solve for n
n = (2.576·7/1)² = 325.2
Round up
A sample size is a whole number, and rounding down would make the margin too large.
n = 326
Answer
n = 326
17.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals
Answer: t = 2.9
Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).
Standard error
SE = 8/√64 = 8/8 = 1
Test statistic
t = (122.9 − 120)/1 = 2.9
Answer
t = 2.9
t0.025; df = 63 = 1.998
|t| > 1.998, so H₀ is rejected at the 5% level (two-sided).
18.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals
Answer: β = 55.76 %
Power of a test: power = 1 − β is the probability of rejecting H₀ when it is false. Find the cutoff x̄c from μ₀ and z_α, then compute the probability of landing beyond x̄c using the true mean: z = (x̄c − μ)/(σ/√n).
Critical sample mean
SE = 8/√64 = 1
x̄c = 80 + 1.645·1 = 81.64
z under the true mean
z = (81.64 − 81.5)/1 = 0.145
Type II error
power = P(Z > 0.145) = 44.24%
β = 100% − 44.24% = 55.76%
Answer
β = 55.76%
19.Linear regression & correlation
Answer: r² = 0.9745
Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.
Means
x̄ = 30/5 = 6
ȳ = 92/5 = 18.4
Sums of squares and products
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 40
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 118
Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² = 357.2
Coefficient of determination
r² = 118²/(40·357.2) = 0.9745
Answer
r² = 0.9745
About 97.45% of the variation in y is explained by the line.
20.Linear regression & correlation
Answer: e = −3.2
Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.
Means
x̄ = 30/5 = 6
ȳ = 69/5 = 13.8
Sums of squares and products
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 40
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 104
Regression line
b = 104/40 = 2.6
a = 13.8 − 2.6·6 = −1.8
ŷ = −1.8 + 2.6·x
Predicted value
ŷ = −1.8 + 2.6·5 = 11.2
Residual
e = 8 − 11.2 = −3.2
Answer
e = −3.2
The point lies below the line.
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