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1Formulas and methods
Evidence-based practice statistics
Sensitivity and specificity
Se = a/(a + c), Sp = d/(b + d)
Predictive values
PPV = a/(a + b), NPV = d/(c + d)
Accuracy
(a + d)/n
Likelihood ratios
LR+ = Se/(1 − Sp), LR− = (1 − Se)/Sp
PPV at prevalence p
Se·p / (Se·p + (1 − Sp)(1 − p))
Odds
odds = p/(1 − p); p = odds/(1 + odds); post-test odds = pre-test odds × LR
Risk measures
RR = EER/CER, ARR = CER − EER, RRR = ARR/CER
Number needed to treat
NNT = 1/ARR, rounded up; NNH = 1/(EER − CER)
Odds ratio
OR = ad/(bc)
Incidence rate
new cases / person-time
Method
Draw the 2 × 2 table and label a, b, c and d before you calculate.
Read sensitivity and specificity down the columns, predictive values along the rows.
For another prevalence, imagine 10 000 people and fill the table with Se, Sp and the prevalence.
For a likelihood ratio, convert the probability to odds, multiply, and convert back.
For a trial, find EER and CER first; then RR = EER/CER, ARR = CER − EER and NNT = 1/ARR rounded up.
Descriptive statistics
Mean
x̄ = Σx/n
Sample standard deviation
s = √(Σ(x − x̄)²/(n − 1))
Median
middle value of the sorted data
z-score
z = (x − μ)/σ
Normal distribution
68% within ±1σ, 95% within ±2σ
Confidence intervals
σ known
x̄ ± z·σ/√n
σ unknown
x̄ ± t·s/√n, df = n − 1
Critical z
90%: 1.645, 95%: 1.96, 99%: 2.576
Sample size
n = (z·σ/E)², rounded up
Method
Decide between z (population σ known) and t (only the sample s, with n − 1 degrees of freedom).
Find the critical value for the confidence level.
Margin of error: E = critical value × standard deviation/√n.
Interval: x̄ ± E.
Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals
z-test for a mean
z = (x̄ − μ0)/(σ/√n)
t-test for a mean
t = (x̄ − μ0)/(s/√n), df = n − 1
Two-sided at 5%
reject H0 if |z| > 1.96
Confidence interval
x̄ ± z·σ/√n
Method
State H₀ and H₁ and decide whether the test is one- or two-sided.
Calculate the test statistic: (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n), or with s and t.
Compare with the critical value, or find the p-value.
Reject H₀ if the statistic is beyond the critical value (p below α), and state the conclusion in words.
2Practice problems
1.Evidence-based practice statisticsMedium
Practice exercise (made-up values, not clinical guidance). A new test was compared with the reference standard in a study (see the 2 × 2 table). Find the negative likelihood ratio LR−. Round to two decimal places.
a = 266b = 478c = 94d = 1292
LR− =
2.Evidence-based practice statisticsHard
Practice exercise (made-up values, not clinical guidance). A patient has a pre-test probability of 15% for a disease. A test with sensitivity 60% and specificity 75% comes back positive. Find the post-test probability p′ of the disease as a percentage. Round to one decimal place.
pre-test 15%Se = 60%Sp = 75%positive
p′ = %
3.Descriptive statisticsMedium
Find the sample standard deviation s of the data: 54, 10, 53, 16, 51, 46, 12.
n = 7
s =
4.Descriptive statisticsHard
A quantity is normally distributed with mean 500 and standard deviation 50. What proportion P of values is below 440?
μ = 500σ = 50x = 440
P =
5.Confidence intervalsMedium
A sample of 11 items has mean 36 and standard deviation s = 13. The population is roughly normal. Find the lower limit of the 95% confidence interval for the mean.
n = 11x̄ = 36s = 1395%t(10) = 2.228
lower limit =
6.Confidence intervalsHard
The population standard deviation is 25. How large a sample n do you need so that a 95% confidence interval for the mean has a margin of error of at most 4?
σ = 25E = 495%
n =
7.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
A sample of 81 students has a mean score of 203.8 and a sample standard deviation of 20. Find the test statistic t for H₀: μ = 200.
μ₀ = 200x̄ = 203.8s = 20n = 81
t =
8.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
How large must a sample be so that the 90% confidence interval for a mean has a margin of error of at most 1? The standard deviation is 15. Find the smallest sample size n.
σ = 15E = 190%
n =
3Solutions
1.Evidence-based practice statistics
Answer: LR− = 0.36
Likelihood ratios and risk measures: LR+ = sensitivity/(1 − specificity), LR− = (1 − sensitivity)/specificity. In a trial, EER and CER are the event rates with and without treatment: RR = EER/CER, ARR = CER − EER, RRR = ARR/CER and NNT = 1/ARR, rounded up. In a case-control study only the odds ratio OR = ad/(bc) can be used. An incidence rate = new cases/person-time.
Sensitivity and specificity
Se = 266/360 = 0.7389
Sp = 1292/1770 = 0.7299
Negative likelihood ratio
LR− = (1 − 0.7389)/0.7299 = 0.3577 ≈ 0.36
Answer
LR− = 0.36
2.Evidence-based practice statistics
Answer: p′ = 29.8 %
Predictive values depend on prevalence: PPV = Se·p/(Se·p + (1 − Sp)(1 − p)) and NPV = Sp(1 − p)/(Sp(1 − p) + (1 − Se)p). With likelihood ratios: pre-test odds = p/(1 − p), post-test odds = pre-test odds × LR, probability = odds/(1 + odds). For a population of N, true positives = N·p·Se and false positives = N·(1 − p)·(1 − Sp). NNT = 1/(CER × RRR), rounded up.
Likelihood ratio
LR+ = 0.6/(1 − 0.75) = 2.4
Pre-test odds
0.15/(1 − 0.15) = 0.1765
Post-test odds
0.1765·2.4 = 0.4235
Post-test probability
p′ = 0.4235/(1 + 0.4235) = 0.2975 ≈ 29.8%
Answer
p′ = 29.8%
3.Descriptive statistics
Answer: s = 20.72
Descriptive statistics: the mean is the sum divided by n; the median is the middle value of the sorted data (the average of the two middle values when n is even). The sample standard deviation is s = √(Σ(x − x̄)²/(n − 1)). A z-score z = (x − μ)/σ says how many standard deviations a value lies from the mean.
Descriptive statistics: the mean is the sum divided by n; the median is the middle value of the sorted data (the average of the two middle values when n is even). The sample standard deviation is s = √(Σ(x − x̄)²/(n − 1)). A z-score z = (x − μ)/σ says how many standard deviations a value lies from the mean.
Standardise
z = −1.2
Standard normal table
Φ(−1.2) = 0.1151
P = 0.1151
Answer
P = 0.1151
5.Confidence intervals
Answer: lower limit = 27.27
Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.
Critical value
df = n − 1 = 10, t = 2.228
Margin of error
E = 2.228·13/√11 = 8.733
Interval
36 ± 8.733 → [27.27, 44.73]
Answer
lower limit = 27.27
6.Confidence intervals
Answer: n = 151
Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.
Solve for n
n = (1.96·25/4)² = 150.1
Round up
A sample size is a whole number, and rounding down would make the margin too large.
n = 151
Answer
n = 151
7.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals
Answer: t = 1.71
Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).
Standard error
SE = 20/√81 = 20/9 = 2.222
Test statistic
t = (203.8 − 200)/2.222 = 1.71
Answer
t = 1.71
t0.025; df = 80 = 1.99
|t| < 1.99, so H₀ is not rejected at the 5% level (two-sided).
8.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals
Answer: n = 609
Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).