Statistics 2: Statistical Inference: cram pack

Formula sheets, the key method steps for every topic and 10 practice problems, with full solutions at the back.

New problemsBack to the course

In the print window, choose “Save as PDF” to keep a copy on your device.

1Formulas and methods

Normal distribution

z-score
z = (x − μ)/σ
Below x
P(X < x) = Φ(z)
Above x
P(X > x) = 1 − Φ(z)
Between
Φ(z2) − Φ(z1)
Percentile
x = μ + z·σ

Method

  1. Convert the value to a z-score: z = (x − μ)/σ.
  2. Look up Φ(z), the area to the left of z.
  3. For the area to the right use 1 − Φ(z); for an interval subtract the two left areas.
  4. For a percentile, work backwards: find z for the area, then x = μ + z·σ.

Confidence intervals

σ known
x̄ ± z·σ/√n
σ unknown
x̄ ± t·s/√n, df = n − 1
Critical z
90%: 1.645, 95%: 1.96, 99%: 2.576
Sample size
n = (z·σ/E)², rounded up

Method

  1. Decide between z (population σ known) and t (only the sample s, with n − 1 degrees of freedom).
  2. Find the critical value for the confidence level.
  3. Margin of error: E = critical value × standard deviation/√n.
  4. Interval: x̄ ± E.

Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

z-test for a mean
z = (x̄ − μ0)/(σ/√n)
t-test for a mean
t = (x̄ − μ0)/(s/√n), df = n − 1
Two-sided at 5%
reject H0 if |z| > 1.96
Confidence interval
x̄ ± z·σ/√n

Method

  1. State H₀ and H₁ and decide whether the test is one- or two-sided.
  2. Calculate the test statistic: (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n), or with s and t.
  3. Compare with the critical value, or find the p-value.
  4. Reject H₀ if the statistic is beyond the critical value (p below α), and state the conclusion in words.

Linear regression & correlation

Sums of squares
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = Σx² − (Σx)²/n, Sxy = Σxy − ΣxΣy/n
Slope
b = Sxy/Sxx
Intercept
a = ȳ − b·x̄
Correlation
r = Sxy/√(SxxSyy)
Residual
e = y − ŷ

Chi-square tests

Test statistic
χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E
Goodness of fit
E = n·p, df = k − 1 − (estimated parameters)
Independence
E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1)
Critical values (α = 0.05)
df 1: 3.841, 2: 5.991, 3: 7.815, 4: 9.488
Decision
reject H0 if χ² > χ²crit

2Practice problems

1.Normal distributionMedium
−3−2−10123zshaded area between −z and z = 0.8690

Drag z so that the shaded area between −z and z under the standard normal curve is 0.8690. Find z to two decimals.

A = 0.8690
z =
2.Normal distributionHard
0.03 mm0D − d?

Hole diameters D are normal with mean 25.03 mm and standard deviation 0.015 mm. Shaft diameters d are independent and normal with mean 25 mm and standard deviation 0.01 mm. A randomly chosen shaft fits when D − d > 0. Find the probability P that it fits. Round z to two decimals.

hole: μ = 25.03 mm, σ = 0.015 mmshaft: μ = 25 mm, σ = 0.01 mm
P =
3.Confidence intervalsMedium
n = 12, sd​ = 6.60LU = ?d̄ = 7.2E99%

The blood pressure of 12 patients is measured before and after a treatment. The differences d = before − after (mmHg) have mean 7.2 and standard deviation 6.6. Find the upper limit of the 99% confidence interval for the mean difference.

n = 12d̄ = 7.2sd = 6.699%t(11) = 3.106
upper limit = mmHg
4.Confidence intervalsHard
p = 0.5, n = ?p̂ − Ep̂ + Ep̂E = 0.0199%

Nothing is known in advance about the proportion of defective products. How many products n must be inspected so that a 99% confidence interval for the proportion has a margin of error of at most 0.01?

p = 0.5E = 0.0199%
n =
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
t −2.01102.011

A sample of 49 students has a mean score of 202.9 and a sample standard deviation of 12. Find the test statistic t for H₀: μ = 200.

μ₀ = 200x̄ = 202.9s = 12n = 49
t =
6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
z −2.57602.576

A sample of 100 measurements has mean 120.2. The population standard deviation is 5. Find the lower limit L of the 99% confidence interval for the mean.

x̄ = 120.2σ = 5n = 10099%
L =
7.Linear regression & correlationMedium
xy3565717829961110513118xy5106080100120

The table gives 6 paired observations of x = hours studied and y = exam score. Find the coefficient of determination r² of the least-squares line.

n = 6
r² =
8.Linear regression & correlationHard
xy18722087221002411226115xy202580100120x = 23

The table gives 5 paired observations of x = temperature in °C and y = ice creams sold. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. A new observation (23, 100) is made. Find its residual e = y − ŷ.

n = 5(23, 100)
e =
9.Chi-square testsMedium
lowmediumhighTotalurban268640rural442729100Total703535140

The contingency table shows observed counts. Compute the chi-square statistic χ² for the test of independence between the row and column variables. Do not use a continuity correction.

N = 1402 × 3
χ² =
10.Chi-square testsHard

A chi-square test of independence is carried out on a contingency table with 3 rows and 6 columns (not counting the totals). How many degrees of freedom df does the test have?

3 × 6
df =

3Solutions

1.Normal distribution

Answer: z = 1.51

From an area back to z: Φ(z) is the area to the left of z. For a left-tail area A, find z with Φ(z) = A in the table. A right-tail area A means Φ(z) = 1 − A. A central area A between −z and z leaves (1 − A)/2 in each tail, so Φ(z) = (1 + A)/2. For a value x, use x = μ + zσ.

Area to the left of z

Φ(z) = (1 + 0.8690)/2 = 0.9345

Read the z-table backwards

Find 0.9345 inside the table and read off z.

z = 1.51

Answer

z = 1.51
2.Normal distribution

Answer: P = 0.9515

Sums and differences of normal variables: if X and Y are independent and normal, X + Y and X − Y are normal too. Means add or subtract: E(X ± Y) = μX ± μY. Variances always add, also for a difference: Var(X ± Y) = σX² + σY², so σ = √(σX² + σY²). Standard deviations never add directly. The total of n independent items with the same distribution has mean n·μ and standard deviation σ·√n. Then standardise as usual: z = (x − mean)/σ and read Φ(z).

Distribution of the difference

μ = 25.03 − 25 = 0.03 mm, σ = 0.01803 mm

Standardise

z = (0 − 0.03)/0.01803 = −1.66

Probability

P = 1 − Φ(−1.66) = 0.9515

Answer

P = 0.9515
3.Confidence intervals

Answer: upper limit = 13.12 mmHg

Interval for a difference: estimate ± critical value × standard error. For two independent means with known σ: SE = √(σ₁²/n₁ + σ₂²/n₂) and z. With equal unknown variances: pooled s_p and t with n₁ + n₂ − 2 degrees of freedom. For paired data, work with the differences: d̄ ± t·s_d/√n.

Critical value

df = 11, t = 3.106

Margin of error

E = 3.106·6.6/√12 = 5.918

Interval

7.2 ± 5.918 → [1.282, 13.12]

Answer

upper limit = 13.12 mmHg
4.Confidence intervals

Answer: n = 16590

Confidence interval for a proportion: p̂ ± z·√(p̂(1 − p̂)/n), where p̂ = x/n. To reach a margin E you need n ≥ z²·p(1 − p)/E², rounded up; without a prior estimate use p = 0.5, which gives the largest n.

Solve for n

n = 2.576²·0.5·0.5/0.01² = 16589

Round up

n = 16590

Answer

n = 16590
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: t = 1.692

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Standard error

SE = 12/√49 = 12/7 = 1.714

Test statistic

t = (202.9 − 200)/1.714 = 1.692

Answer

t = 1.692
t0.025; df = 48 = 2.011

|t| < 2.011, so H₀ is not rejected at the 5% level (two-sided).

6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: L = 118.9

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Margin of error

E = 2.576·5/√100 = 1.288

Interval limit

L = 120.2 − 1.288 = 118.9

Answer

L = 118.9
7.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: r² = 0.9964

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 48/6 = 8
ȳ = 528/6 = 88

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 70
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 426
Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² = 2602

Coefficient of determination

r² = 426²/(70·2602) = 0.9964

Answer

r² = 0.9964

About 99.64% of the variation in y is explained by the line.

8.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: e = −2.75

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 110/5 = 22
ȳ = 486/5 = 97.2

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 40
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 222

Regression line

b = 222/40 = 5.55
a = 97.2 − 5.55·22 = −24.9
ŷ = −24.9 + 5.55·x

Predicted value

ŷ = −24.9 + 5.55·23 = 102.8

Residual

e = 100 − 102.8 = −2.75

Answer

e = −2.75

The point lies below the line.

9.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ² = 5.32

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected counts

urban: 40·70/140 = 20, 40·35/140 = 10, 40·35/140 = 10
rural: 100·70/140 = 50, 100·35/140 = 25, 100·35/140 = 25

Chi-square statistic

χ² = (26 − 20)²/20 + (8 − 10)²/10 + (6 − 10)²/10 + (44 − 50)²/50 + (27 − 25)²/25 + (29 − 25)²/25
χ² = 5.32

Answer

χ² = 5.32

df = 2. At α = 0.05 the critical value is 5.991, so H₀ (independence) is not rejected.

10.Chi-square tests

Answer: df = 10

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Degrees of freedom

df = (3 − 1)·(6 − 1) = 10

Answer

df = 10

ExamProblems · examproblems.com/courses/statistics-2-inference