Statistics 2: Statistical Inference: cram pack

Formula sheets, the key method steps for every topic and 10 practice problems, with full solutions at the back.

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1Formulas and methods

Normal distribution

z-score
z = (x − μ)/σ
Below x
P(X < x) = Φ(z)
Above x
P(X > x) = 1 − Φ(z)
Between
Φ(z2) − Φ(z1)
Percentile
x = μ + z·σ

Method

  1. Convert the value to a z-score: z = (x − μ)/σ.
  2. Look up Φ(z), the area to the left of z.
  3. For the area to the right use 1 − Φ(z); for an interval subtract the two left areas.
  4. For a percentile, work backwards: find z for the area, then x = μ + z·σ.

Confidence intervals

σ known
x̄ ± z·σ/√n
σ unknown
x̄ ± t·s/√n, df = n − 1
Critical z
90%: 1.645, 95%: 1.96, 99%: 2.576
Sample size
n = (z·σ/E)², rounded up

Method

  1. Decide between z (population σ known) and t (only the sample s, with n − 1 degrees of freedom).
  2. Find the critical value for the confidence level.
  3. Margin of error: E = critical value × standard deviation/√n.
  4. Interval: x̄ ± E.

Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

z-test for a mean
z = (x̄ − μ0)/(σ/√n)
t-test for a mean
t = (x̄ − μ0)/(s/√n), df = n − 1
Two-sided at 5%
reject H0 if |z| > 1.96
Confidence interval
x̄ ± z·σ/√n

Method

  1. State H₀ and H₁ and decide whether the test is one- or two-sided.
  2. Calculate the test statistic: (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n), or with s and t.
  3. Compare with the critical value, or find the p-value.
  4. Reject H₀ if the statistic is beyond the critical value (p below α), and state the conclusion in words.

Linear regression & correlation

Sums of squares
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = Σx² − (Σx)²/n, Sxy = Σxy − ΣxΣy/n
Slope
b = Sxy/Sxx
Intercept
a = ȳ − b·x̄
Correlation
r = Sxy/√(SxxSyy)
Residual
e = y − ŷ

Chi-square tests

Test statistic
χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E
Goodness of fit
E = n·p, df = k − 1 − (estimated parameters)
Independence
E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1)
Critical values (α = 0.05)
df 1: 3.841, 2: 5.991, 3: 7.815, 4: 9.488
Decision
reject H0 if χ² > χ²crit

2Practice problems

1.Normal distributionMedium
470560P = ?

The battery lifetimes are normally distributed with mean 500 h and standard deviation 40 h. What fraction lies between 470 and 560 h? Give P as a decimal.

μ = 500σ = 40x1 = 470x2 = 560
P =
2.Normal distributionHard
380420460500540580620hbottom 5%

The battery lifetimes are normally distributed with mean 500 h and standard deviation 40 h. Drag the cut-off so the shaded bottom 5% is to the left of it. Find the cut-off x.

μ = 500 hσ = 40 h5%
x = h
3.Confidence intervalsMedium
n = 15, sd​ = 40LU = ?d̄ = −9.3E95%

The blood pressure of 15 patients is measured before and after a treatment. The differences d = before − after (mmHg) have mean −9.3 and standard deviation 4. Find the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval for the mean difference.

n = 15d̄ = −9.3sd = 495%t(14) = 2.145
upper limit = mmHg
4.Confidence intervalsHard
σ = 35, n = ?x̄ − Ex̄ + Ex̄E = 0.599%

The population standard deviation is 35. How large a sample n do you need so that a 99% confidence interval for the mean has a margin of error of at most 0.5?

σ = 35E = 0.599%
n =
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
−2.2622.262t = ?df = 9

10 employees take a typing test before and after a training course. For each person the difference d = after − before (words per minute) is recorded. The mean difference is 1.95 and the standard deviation of the differences is 2.8. Find the paired test statistic t for H₀: μd = 0.

n = 10d̄ = 1.95sd = 2.8
t =
6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
−1.961.96z = ?

In a trial, 45 of 100 patients on treatment A recover, and 171 of 300 patients on treatment B. Using the pooled proportion, find the test statistic z for H₀: p₁ = p₂.

x₁ = 45n₁ = 100x₂ = 171n₂ = 300
z =
7.Linear regression & correlationMedium
xy125224322420516617xy2462025

The table gives 6 paired observations of x = car age in years and y = price in k€. Find Pearson's correlation coefficient r.

n = 6
r =
8.Linear regression & correlationHard
xy24444264885110581262xy5105060ŷ = 47

The table gives 6 paired observations of x = advertising spend in k€ and y = sales in k€. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. For which value x does the line predict ŷ = 47?

n = 6ŷ = 47
x =
9.Chi-square testsMedium
busbikecarTotalstudents8381258staff28153780Total365349138

The contingency table shows observed counts. For a chi-square test of independence, find the expected count E for the cell “students, car”.

row total = 58column total = 49N = 138
E =
10.Chi-square testsHard
passfailTotalage 18–302476100age 31–502674100age 51+283260Total78182260dfα = 0.05α = 0.0113.8416.63525.9919.21037.81511.34549.48813.277511.07015.086612.59216.812714.06718.475815.50720.090916.91921.6661018.30723.209

The table shows observed counts. Test at α = 0.05 whether the two variables are independent (no continuity correction). Compute the test statistic χ², then compare it with the critical value from the table.

N = 2603 × 2α = 0.05
χ² =

3Solutions

1.Normal distribution

Answer: P = 0.7066

Normal distribution: convert a value x to a z-score, z = (x − μ)/σ, which counts standard deviations from the mean. A z-table (or Φ(z)) gives the area to the left of z, which is P(X < x). The area to the right is 1 − Φ(z), and the area between two values is the difference of their two areas.

z-scores

z₁ = (470 − 500)/40 = −0.75
z₂ = (560 − 500)/40 = 1.5

Area between

P = Φ(1.5) − Φ(−0.75) = 0.9332 − 0.2266 = 0.7066

Answer

P = 0.7066
2.Normal distribution

Answer: x = 434 h

From an area back to z: Φ(z) is the area to the left of z. For a left-tail area A, find z with Φ(z) = A in the table. A right-tail area A means Φ(z) = 1 − A. A central area A between −z and z leaves (1 − A)/2 in each tail, so Φ(z) = (1 + A)/2. For a value x, use x = μ + zσ.

Area to the left

Φ(z) = 0.05

z from the table

z ≈ −1.64

Back to the original units

x = 500 − 1.64·40 = 434 h

Answer

x = 434 h
3.Confidence intervals

Answer: upper limit = −7.085 mmHg

Interval for a difference: estimate ± critical value × standard error. For two independent means with known σ: SE = √(σ₁²/n₁ + σ₂²/n₂) and z. With equal unknown variances: pooled s_p and t with n₁ + n₂ − 2 degrees of freedom. For paired data, work with the differences: d̄ ± t·s_d/√n.

Critical value

df = 14, t = 2.145

Margin of error

E = 2.145·4/√15 = 2.215

Interval

−9.3 ± 2.215 → [−11.52, −7.085]

Answer

upper limit = −7.085 mmHg
4.Confidence intervals

Answer: n = 32516

Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.

Solve for n

n = (2.576·35/0.5)² = 32515

Round up

A sample size is a whole number, and rounding down would make the margin too large.

n = 32516

Answer

n = 32516
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: t = 2.202

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Standard error of the mean difference

SE = 2.8/√10 = 0.8854

Test statistic

t = 1.95/0.8854 = 2.202

Answer

t = 2.202

With df = 9, the two-sided 5% critical value is 2.262; |t| is smaller, so H₀ is not rejected.

6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: z = −2.085

Hypothesis test: the test statistic = (estimate − value under H₀)/(standard error under H₀). The p-value is the probability, assuming H₀ is true, of a statistic at least as extreme as the one observed: the area in one tail for a one-sided H₁, twice the tail area for a two-sided H₁. Reject H₀ when p ≤ α.

Sample proportions

p̂₁ = 45/100 = 0.45
p̂₂ = 171/300 = 0.57
p̂ = 216/400 = 0.54

Standard error under H₀

SE = √(0.54·0.46·(1/100 + 1/300)) = 0.05755

Test statistic

z = (0.45 − 0.57)/0.05755 = −2.085

Answer

z = −2.085

|z| > 1.96, so H₀ is rejected at the 5% level (two-sided).

7.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: r = −0.9613

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 21/6 = 3.5
ȳ = 124/6 = 20.67

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 17.5
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = −33
Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² = 67.33

Correlation coefficient

r = −33/√(17.5·67.33) = −0.9613

Answer

r = −0.9613
8.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: x = 5.097

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 42/6 = 7
ȳ = 305/6 = 50.83

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 70
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 141

Regression line

b = 141/70 = 2.014
a = 50.83 − 2.014·7 = 36.73
ŷ = 36.73 + 2.014·x

Solve for x

x = (47 − 36.73)/2.014 = 5.097

Answer

x = 5.097
9.Chi-square tests

Answer: E = 20.59

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected count

E = 58·49/138 = 20.59

Answer

E = 20.59
10.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ² = 10.41

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected counts

age 18–30: 30, 70
age 31–50: 30, 70
age 51+: 18, 42

Chi-square statistic

χ² = (24 − 30)²/30 + (76 − 70)²/70 + (26 − 30)²/30 + (74 − 70)²/70 + (28 − 18)²/18 + (32 − 42)²/42
χ² = 10.41

Decision

df = 2, χ²crit = 5.991
10.41 > 5.991

Answer

χ² = 10.41

χ² is above the critical value, so H₀ is rejected: the variables appear to be related.

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