Statistics 2: Statistical Inference: cram pack

Formula sheets, the key method steps for every topic and 10 practice problems, with full solutions at the back.

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1Formulas and methods

Normal distribution

z-score
z = (x − μ)/σ
Below x
P(X < x) = Φ(z)
Above x
P(X > x) = 1 − Φ(z)
Between
Φ(z2) − Φ(z1)
Percentile
x = μ + z·σ

Method

  1. Convert the value to a z-score: z = (x − μ)/σ.
  2. Look up Φ(z), the area to the left of z.
  3. For the area to the right use 1 − Φ(z); for an interval subtract the two left areas.
  4. For a percentile, work backwards: find z for the area, then x = μ + z·σ.

Confidence intervals

σ known
x̄ ± z·σ/√n
σ unknown
x̄ ± t·s/√n, df = n − 1
Critical z
90%: 1.645, 95%: 1.96, 99%: 2.576
Sample size
n = (z·σ/E)², rounded up

Method

  1. Decide between z (population σ known) and t (only the sample s, with n − 1 degrees of freedom).
  2. Find the critical value for the confidence level.
  3. Margin of error: E = critical value × standard deviation/√n.
  4. Interval: x̄ ± E.

Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

z-test for a mean
z = (x̄ − μ0)/(σ/√n)
t-test for a mean
t = (x̄ − μ0)/(s/√n), df = n − 1
Two-sided at 5%
reject H0 if |z| > 1.96
Confidence interval
x̄ ± z·σ/√n

Method

  1. State H₀ and H₁ and decide whether the test is one- or two-sided.
  2. Calculate the test statistic: (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n), or with s and t.
  3. Compare with the critical value, or find the p-value.
  4. Reject H₀ if the statistic is beyond the critical value (p below α), and state the conclusion in words.

Linear regression & correlation

Sums of squares
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = Σx² − (Σx)²/n, Sxy = Σxy − ΣxΣy/n
Slope
b = Sxy/Sxx
Intercept
a = ȳ − b·x̄
Correlation
r = Sxy/√(SxxSyy)
Residual
e = y − ŷ

Chi-square tests

Test statistic
χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E
Goodness of fit
E = n·p, df = k − 1 − (estimated parameters)
Independence
E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1)
Critical values (α = 0.05)
df 1: 3.841, 2: 5.991, 3: 7.815, 4: 9.488
Decision
reject H0 if χ² > χ²crit

2Practice problems

1.Normal distributionMedium
32 min30.8 minX + Y?

X is normal with mean 12 min and standard deviation 1.5 min; Y is independent and normal with mean 20 min and standard deviation 2 min. Find the probability P that X + Y is more than 30.8 min. Round z to two decimals.

μX = 12, σX = 1.5μY = 20, σY = 2X + Y > 30.8 min
P =
2.Normal distributionHard
0.02 mm0D − d?

Hole diameters D are normal with mean 25.02 mm and standard deviation 0.01 mm. Shaft diameters d are independent and normal with mean 25 mm and standard deviation 0.01 mm. A randomly chosen shaft fits when D − d > 0. Find the probability P that it fits. Round z to two decimals.

hole: μ = 25.02 mm, σ = 0.01 mmshaft: μ = 25 mm, σ = 0.01 mm
P =
3.Confidence intervalsMedium
n = 20, sd​ = 5.10LU = ?d̄ = −1E90%

The blood pressure of 20 patients is measured before and after a treatment. The differences d = before − after (mmHg) have mean −1 and standard deviation 5.1. Find the upper limit of the 90% confidence interval for the mean difference.

n = 20d̄ = −1sd = 5.190%t(19) = 1.729
upper limit = mmHg
4.Confidence intervalsHard
σ = 19, n = ?x̄ − Ex̄ + Ex̄E = 490%

The population standard deviation is 19. How large a sample n do you need so that a 90% confidence interval for the mean has a margin of error of at most 4?

σ = 19E = 490%
n =
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
t −2.13102.131

A sample of 16 students has a mean score of 497.8 and a sample standard deviation of 4. Find the test statistic t for H₀: μ = 500.

μ₀ = 500x̄ = 497.8s = 4n = 16
t =
6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
z −1.9601.96

A sample of 25 measurements has mean 96.4. The population standard deviation is 10. Find the lower limit L of the 95% confidence interval for the mean.

x̄ = 96.4σ = 10n = 2595%
L =
7.Linear regression & correlationMedium
xy189421117241352715130159xy202530100150

The table gives 5 paired observations of x = temperature in °C and y = ice creams sold. Their sums are given. Find Pearson's correlation coefficient r from these sums.

n = 5Σx = 120Σy = 656Σx² = 2970Σy² = 88832Σxy = 16236
r =
8.Linear regression & correlationHard
xy349453553657756857xy4685055ŷ = 51

The table gives 6 paired observations of x = advertising spend in k€ and y = sales in k€. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. For which value x does the line predict ŷ = 51?

n = 6ŷ = 51
x =
9.Chi-square testsMedium
no defectminormajorTotalday shift28203280night shift5220880Total804040160

The contingency table shows observed counts. Compute the chi-square statistic χ² for the test of independence between the row and column variables. Do not use a continuity correction.

N = 1602 × 3
χ² =
10.Chi-square testsHard
dfα = 0.05α = 0.0113.8416.63525.9919.21037.81511.34549.48813.277511.07015.086612.59216.812714.06718.475815.50720.090916.91921.6661018.30723.209

A chi-square test of independence is carried out on a contingency table with 3 rows and 6 columns (not counting the totals). Using the table, find the critical value χ²crit at significance level α = 0.01.

α = 0.01
χ²crit =

3Solutions

1.Normal distribution

Answer: P = 0.6844

Sums and differences of normal variables: if X and Y are independent and normal, X + Y and X − Y are normal too. Means add or subtract: E(X ± Y) = μX ± μY. Variances always add, also for a difference: Var(X ± Y) = σX² + σY², so σ = √(σX² + σY²). Standard deviations never add directly. The total of n independent items with the same distribution has mean n·μ and standard deviation σ·√n. Then standardise as usual: z = (x − mean)/σ and read Φ(z).

Distribution of the sum

μ = 32 min, σ = √(1.5² + 2²) = 2.5 min

Standardise

z = (30.8 − 32)/2.5 = −0.48

Upper tail

P = 1 − Φ(−0.48) = 1 − 0.3156 = 0.6844

Answer

P = 0.6844
2.Normal distribution

Answer: P = 0.9207

Sums and differences of normal variables: if X and Y are independent and normal, X + Y and X − Y are normal too. Means add or subtract: E(X ± Y) = μX ± μY. Variances always add, also for a difference: Var(X ± Y) = σX² + σY², so σ = √(σX² + σY²). Standard deviations never add directly. The total of n independent items with the same distribution has mean n·μ and standard deviation σ·√n. Then standardise as usual: z = (x − mean)/σ and read Φ(z).

Distribution of the difference

μ = 25.02 − 25 = 0.02 mm, σ = 0.01414 mm

Standardise

z = (0 − 0.02)/0.01414 = −1.41

Probability

P = 1 − Φ(−1.41) = 0.9207

Answer

P = 0.9207
3.Confidence intervals

Answer: upper limit = 0.9717 mmHg

Interval for a difference: estimate ± critical value × standard error. For two independent means with known σ: SE = √(σ₁²/n₁ + σ₂²/n₂) and z. With equal unknown variances: pooled s_p and t with n₁ + n₂ − 2 degrees of freedom. For paired data, work with the differences: d̄ ± t·s_d/√n.

Critical value

df = 19, t = 1.729

Margin of error

E = 1.729·5.1/√20 = 1.972

Interval

−1 ± 1.972 → [−2.972, 0.9717]

Answer

upper limit = 0.9717 mmHg
4.Confidence intervals

Answer: n = 62

Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.

Solve for n

n = (1.645·19/4)² = 61.05

Round up

A sample size is a whole number, and rounding down would make the margin too large.

n = 62

Answer

n = 62
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: t = −2.2

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Standard error

SE = 4/√16 = 4/4 = 1

Test statistic

t = (497.8 − 500)/1 = −2.2

Answer

t = −2.2
t0.025; df = 15 = 2.131

|t| > 2.131, so H₀ is rejected at the 5% level (two-sided).

6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: L = 92.48

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Margin of error

E = 1.96·10/√25 = 3.92

Interval limit

L = 96.4 − 3.92 = 92.48

Answer

L = 92.48
7.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: r = 0.9863

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Centred sums

Sxy = 16236 − 120·656/5 = 492
Sxx = 2970 − 120²/5 = 90
Syy = 88832 − 656²/5 = 2765

Correlation coefficient

r = 492/√(90·2765) = 0.9863

Answer

r = 0.9863
8.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: x = 3.409

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 33/6 = 5.5
ȳ = 325/6 = 54.17

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 17.5
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 26.5

Regression line

b = 26.5/17.5 = 1.514
a = 54.17 − 1.514·5.5 = 45.84
ŷ = 45.84 + 1.514·x

Solve for x

x = (51 − 45.84)/1.514 = 3.409

Answer

x = 3.409
9.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ² = 21.6

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected counts

day shift: 80·80/160 = 40, 80·40/160 = 20, 80·40/160 = 20
night shift: 80·80/160 = 40, 80·40/160 = 20, 80·40/160 = 20

Chi-square statistic

χ² = (28 − 40)²/40 + (20 − 20)²/20 + (32 − 20)²/20 + (52 − 40)²/40 + (20 − 20)²/20 + (8 − 20)²/20
χ² = 21.6

Answer

χ² = 21.6

df = 2. At α = 0.05 the critical value is 5.991, so H₀ (independence) is rejected.

10.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ²crit = 23.21

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Degrees of freedom

df = (3 − 1)·(6 − 1) = 10

Table

χ²crit(df = 10, α = 0.01) = 23.209

Answer

χ²crit = 23.209

Reject H₀ if the computed χ² is larger than this value.

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