Statistics 2: Statistical Inference: cram pack

Formula sheets, the key method steps for every topic and 10 practice problems, with full solutions at the back.

New problemsBack to the course

In the print window, choose “Save as PDF” to keep a copy on your device.

1Formulas and methods

Normal distribution

z-score
z = (x − μ)/σ
Below x
P(X < x) = Φ(z)
Above x
P(X > x) = 1 − Φ(z)
Between
Φ(z2) − Φ(z1)
Percentile
x = μ + z·σ

Method

  1. Convert the value to a z-score: z = (x − μ)/σ.
  2. Look up Φ(z), the area to the left of z.
  3. For the area to the right use 1 − Φ(z); for an interval subtract the two left areas.
  4. For a percentile, work backwards: find z for the area, then x = μ + z·σ.

Confidence intervals

σ known
x̄ ± z·σ/√n
σ unknown
x̄ ± t·s/√n, df = n − 1
Critical z
90%: 1.645, 95%: 1.96, 99%: 2.576
Sample size
n = (z·σ/E)², rounded up

Method

  1. Decide between z (population σ known) and t (only the sample s, with n − 1 degrees of freedom).
  2. Find the critical value for the confidence level.
  3. Margin of error: E = critical value × standard deviation/√n.
  4. Interval: x̄ ± E.

Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

z-test for a mean
z = (x̄ − μ0)/(σ/√n)
t-test for a mean
t = (x̄ − μ0)/(s/√n), df = n − 1
Two-sided at 5%
reject H0 if |z| > 1.96
Confidence interval
x̄ ± z·σ/√n

Method

  1. State H₀ and H₁ and decide whether the test is one- or two-sided.
  2. Calculate the test statistic: (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n), or with s and t.
  3. Compare with the critical value, or find the p-value.
  4. Reject H₀ if the statistic is beyond the critical value (p below α), and state the conclusion in words.

Linear regression & correlation

Sums of squares
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = Σx² − (Σx)²/n, Sxy = Σxy − ΣxΣy/n
Slope
b = Sxy/Sxx
Intercept
a = ȳ − b·x̄
Correlation
r = Sxy/√(SxxSyy)
Residual
e = y − ŷ

Chi-square tests

Test statistic
χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E
Goodness of fit
E = n·p, df = k − 1 − (estimated parameters)
Independence
E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1)
Critical values (α = 0.05)
df 1: 3.841, 2: 5.991, 3: 7.815, 4: 9.488
Decision
reject H0 if χ² > χ²crit

2Practice problems

1.Normal distributionMedium
247.75256P = ?

The bag weights are normally distributed with mean 250 g and standard deviation 5 g. What fraction lies between 247.75 and 256 g? Give P as a decimal.

μ = 250σ = 5x1 = 247.75x2 = 256
P =
2.Normal distributionHard
μ = 500x = ?25%

The battery lifetimes are normally distributed with mean 500 h and standard deviation 40 h. Find the value x below which 25% of them lie (the 25th percentile).

μ = 500σ = 40P = 25%
x = h
3.Confidence intervalsMedium
n = 10, s = 10L = ?Ux̄ = 43.5E90%

A sample of 10 items has mean 43.5 and standard deviation s = 10. The population is roughly normal. Find the lower limit of the 90% confidence interval for the mean.

n = 10x̄ = 43.5s = 1090%t(9) = 1.833
lower limit =
4.Confidence intervalsHard
p = 0.5, n = ?p̂ − Ep̂ + Ep̂E = 0.0395%

Nothing is known in advance about the proportion of defective products. How many products n must be inspected so that a 95% confidence interval for the proportion has a margin of error of at most 0.03?

p = 0.5E = 0.0395%
n =
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
t −2.0302.03

A sample of 36 students has a mean score of 116.3 and a sample standard deviation of 10. Find the test statistic t for H₀: μ = 120.

μ₀ = 120x̄ = 116.3s = 10n = 36
t =
6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
z −2.57602.576

A sample of 81 measurements has mean 76.6. The population standard deviation is 12. Find the upper limit U of the 99% confidence interval for the mean.

x̄ = 76.6σ = 12n = 8199%
U =
7.Linear regression & correlationMedium
xy126230332437538642xy24625303540

The table gives 6 paired observations of x = advertising spend in k€ and y = sales in k€. Find the coefficient of determination r² of the least-squares line.

n = 6
r² =
8.Linear regression & correlationHard
xy187420802283249826105xy20258090100x = 23

The table gives 5 paired observations of x = temperature in °C and y = ice creams sold. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. Predict ŷ for x = 23.

n = 5x = 23
ŷ =
9.Chi-square testsMedium
no defectminormajorTotalday shift343333100night shift11303980Total456372180

The contingency table shows observed counts. Compute the chi-square statistic χ² for the test of independence between the row and column variables. Do not use a continuity correction.

N = 1802 × 3
χ² =
10.Chi-square testsHard

A chi-square test of independence is carried out on a contingency table with 2 rows and 6 columns (not counting the totals). How many degrees of freedom df does the test have?

2 × 6
df =

3Solutions

1.Normal distribution

Answer: P = 0.5586

Normal distribution: convert a value x to a z-score, z = (x − μ)/σ, which counts standard deviations from the mean. A z-table (or Φ(z)) gives the area to the left of z, which is P(X < x). The area to the right is 1 − Φ(z), and the area between two values is the difference of their two areas.

z-scores

z₁ = (247.75 − 250)/5 = −0.45
z₂ = (256 − 250)/5 = 1.2

Area between

P = Φ(1.2) − Φ(−0.45) = 0.8849 − 0.3264 = 0.5586

Answer

P = 0.5586
2.Normal distribution

Answer: x = 473 h

Normal distribution: convert a value x to a z-score, z = (x − μ)/σ, which counts standard deviations from the mean. A z-table (or Φ(z)) gives the area to the left of z, which is P(X < x). The area to the right is 1 − Φ(z), and the area between two values is the difference of their two areas.

z for the percentile

Φ(z) = 0.25 → z = −0.6745

Back to x

x = 500 + −0.6745·40 = 473.02 h

Answer

x = 473.02 h
3.Confidence intervals

Answer: lower limit = 37.7

Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.

Critical value

df = n − 1 = 9, t = 1.833

Margin of error

E = 1.833·10/√10 = 5.796

Interval

43.5 ± 5.796 → [37.7, 49.3]

Answer

lower limit = 37.7
4.Confidence intervals

Answer: n = 1068

Confidence interval for a proportion: p̂ ± z·√(p̂(1 − p̂)/n), where p̂ = x/n. To reach a margin E you need n ≥ z²·p(1 − p)/E², rounded up; without a prior estimate use p = 0.5, which gives the largest n.

Solve for n

n = 1.96²·0.5·0.5/0.03² = 1067

Round up

n = 1068

Answer

n = 1068
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: t = −2.22

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Standard error

SE = 10/√36 = 10/6 = 1.667

Test statistic

t = (116.3 − 120)/1.667 = −2.22

Answer

t = −2.22
t0.025; df = 35 = 2.03

|t| > 2.03, so H₀ is rejected at the 5% level (two-sided).

6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: U = 80.03

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Margin of error

E = 2.576·12/√81 = 3.435

Interval limit

U = 76.6 + 3.435 = 80.03

Answer

U = 80.03
7.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: r² = 0.982

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 21/6 = 3.5
ȳ = 205/6 = 34.17

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 17.5
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 54.5
Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² = 172.8

Coefficient of determination

r² = 54.5²/(17.5·172.8) = 0.982

Answer

r² = 0.982

About 98.2% of the variation in y is explained by the line.

8.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: ŷ = 92

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 110/5 = 22
ȳ = 440/5 = 88

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 40
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 160

Regression line

b = 160/40 = 4
a = 88 − 4·22 = 0
ŷ = 0 + 4·x

Prediction

ŷ = 0 + 4·23 = 92

Answer

ŷ = 92
9.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ² = 10.3

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected counts

day shift: 100·45/180 = 25, 100·63/180 = 35, 100·72/180 = 40
night shift: 80·45/180 = 20, 80·63/180 = 28, 80·72/180 = 32

Chi-square statistic

χ² = (34 − 25)²/25 + (33 − 35)²/35 + (33 − 40)²/40 + (11 − 20)²/20 + (30 − 28)²/28 + (39 − 32)²/32
χ² = 10.3

Answer

χ² = 10.3

df = 2. At α = 0.05 the critical value is 5.991, so H₀ (independence) is rejected.

10.Chi-square tests

Answer: df = 5

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Degrees of freedom

df = (2 − 1)·(6 − 1) = 5

Answer

df = 5

ExamProblems · examproblems.com/courses/statistics-2-inference