Statistics 2: Statistical Inference: cram pack

Formula sheets, the key method steps for every topic and 10 practice problems, with full solutions at the back.

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1Formulas and methods

Normal distribution

z-score
z = (x − μ)/σ
Below x
P(X < x) = Φ(z)
Above x
P(X > x) = 1 − Φ(z)
Between
Φ(z2) − Φ(z1)
Percentile
x = μ + z·σ

Method

  1. Convert the value to a z-score: z = (x − μ)/σ.
  2. Look up Φ(z), the area to the left of z.
  3. For the area to the right use 1 − Φ(z); for an interval subtract the two left areas.
  4. For a percentile, work backwards: find z for the area, then x = μ + z·σ.

Confidence intervals

σ known
x̄ ± z·σ/√n
σ unknown
x̄ ± t·s/√n, df = n − 1
Critical z
90%: 1.645, 95%: 1.96, 99%: 2.576
Sample size
n = (z·σ/E)², rounded up

Method

  1. Decide between z (population σ known) and t (only the sample s, with n − 1 degrees of freedom).
  2. Find the critical value for the confidence level.
  3. Margin of error: E = critical value × standard deviation/√n.
  4. Interval: x̄ ± E.

Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

z-test for a mean
z = (x̄ − μ0)/(σ/√n)
t-test for a mean
t = (x̄ − μ0)/(s/√n), df = n − 1
Two-sided at 5%
reject H0 if |z| > 1.96
Confidence interval
x̄ ± z·σ/√n

Method

  1. State H₀ and H₁ and decide whether the test is one- or two-sided.
  2. Calculate the test statistic: (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n), or with s and t.
  3. Compare with the critical value, or find the p-value.
  4. Reject H₀ if the statistic is beyond the critical value (p below α), and state the conclusion in words.

Linear regression & correlation

Sums of squares
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = Σx² − (Σx)²/n, Sxy = Σxy − ΣxΣy/n
Slope
b = Sxy/Sxx
Intercept
a = ȳ − b·x̄
Correlation
r = Sxy/√(SxxSyy)
Residual
e = y − ŷ

Chi-square tests

Test statistic
χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E
Goodness of fit
E = n·p, df = k − 1 − (estimated parameters)
Independence
E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1)
Critical values (α = 0.05)
df 1: 3.841, 2: 5.991, 3: 7.815, 4: 9.488
Decision
reject H0 if χ² > χ²crit

2Practice problems

1.Normal distributionMedium
−3−2−10123zshaded area between −z and z = 0.8557

Drag z so that the shaded area between −z and z under the standard normal curve is 0.8557. Find z to two decimals.

A = 0.8557
z =
2.Normal distributionHard
35455565758595pointstop 60%

The exam scores are normally distributed with mean 65 points and standard deviation 10 points. Drag the cut-off so the shaded top 60% is to the right of it. Find the cut-off x.

μ = 65 pointsσ = 10 points60%
x = points
3.Confidence intervalsMedium
μ₁ − μ₂0L = ?Ux̄₁ − x̄₂E95%

The battery life of two phone models is compared. Model 1: 60 phones, mean 75.5 h, known standard deviation 17 h. Model 2: 50 phones, mean 88.5 h, known standard deviation 18 h. Find the lower limit of the 95% confidence interval for μ₁ − μ₂.

n₁ = 60x̄₁ = 75.5 hσ₁ = 17 hn₂ = 50x̄₂ = 88.5 hσ₂ = 18 h95%
lower limit = h
4.Confidence intervalsHard
σ = 21, n = ?x̄ − Ex̄ + Ex̄E = 590%

The population standard deviation is 21. How large a sample n do you need so that a 90% confidence interval for the mean has a margin of error of at most 5?

σ = 21E = 590%
n =
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
−2p = ?

The mean of a population is claimed to be 50; the population standard deviation is known to be 5. A random sample of 25 observations has a mean of 48. Test H₀: μ = 50 against H₁: μ < 50. Find the p-value p.

μ₀ = 50σ = 5n = 25x̄ = 48H₁: μ < μ₀
p =
6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
−1.961.96z = ?

In a trial, 42 of 120 patients on treatment A recover, and 32 of 80 patients on treatment B. Using the pooled proportion, find the test statistic z for H₀: p₁ = p₂.

x₁ = 42n₁ = 120x₂ = 32n₂ = 80
z =
7.Linear regression & correlationMedium
xy3415407479511153xy510404550

The table gives 5 paired observations of x = advertising spend in k€ and y = sales in k€. Their sums are given. Find Pearson's correlation coefficient r from these sums.

n = 5Σx = 35Σy = 232Σx² = 285Σy² = 10900Σxy = 1694
r =
8.Linear regression & correlationHard
xy128225322420519616xy2462025x = 3.5

The table gives 6 paired observations of x = car age in years and y = price in k€. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. A new observation (3.5, 25) is made. Find its residual e = y − ŷ.

n = 6(3.5, 25)
e =
9.Chi-square testsMedium
no defectminormajorTotalday shift26233180night shift244749120Total507080200

The contingency table shows observed counts. Compute the chi-square statistic χ² for the test of independence between the row and column variables. Do not use a continuity correction.

N = 2002 × 3
χ² =
10.Chi-square testsHard
yesnoTotalline 155560line 2481260line 3572380Total16040200dfα = 0.05α = 0.0113.8416.63525.9919.21037.81511.34549.48813.277511.07015.086612.59216.812714.06718.475815.50720.090916.91921.6661018.30723.209

The table shows observed counts. Test at α = 0.05 whether the two variables are independent (no continuity correction). Compute the test statistic χ², then compare it with the critical value from the table.

N = 2003 × 2α = 0.05
χ² =

3Solutions

1.Normal distribution

Answer: z = 1.46

From an area back to z: Φ(z) is the area to the left of z. For a left-tail area A, find z with Φ(z) = A in the table. A right-tail area A means Φ(z) = 1 − A. A central area A between −z and z leaves (1 − A)/2 in each tail, so Φ(z) = (1 + A)/2. For a value x, use x = μ + zσ.

Area to the left of z

Φ(z) = (1 + 0.8557)/2 = 0.9279

Read the z-table backwards

Find 0.9279 inside the table and read off z.

z = 1.46

Answer

z = 1.46
2.Normal distribution

Answer: x = 62.5 points

From an area back to z: Φ(z) is the area to the left of z. For a left-tail area A, find z with Φ(z) = A in the table. A right-tail area A means Φ(z) = 1 − A. A central area A between −z and z leaves (1 − A)/2 in each tail, so Φ(z) = (1 + A)/2. For a value x, use x = μ + zσ.

Area to the left

Φ(z) = 0.4

z from the table

z ≈ −0.25

Back to the original units

x = 65 − 0.25·10 = 62.5 points

Answer

x = 62.5 points
3.Confidence intervals

Answer: lower limit = −19.59 h

Interval for a difference: estimate ± critical value × standard error. For two independent means with known σ: SE = √(σ₁²/n₁ + σ₂²/n₂) and z. With equal unknown variances: pooled s_p and t with n₁ + n₂ − 2 degrees of freedom. For paired data, work with the differences: d̄ ± t·s_d/√n.

Point estimate

x̄₁ − x̄₂ = 75.5 − 88.5 = −13

Standard error

SE = √(17²/60 + 18²/50) = 3.361

Margin of error

E = 1.96·3.361 = 6.588

Interval

−13 ± 6.588 → [−19.59, −6.412]

Answer

lower limit = −19.59 h

The interval does not contain 0, so the means differ significantly.

4.Confidence intervals

Answer: n = 48

Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.

Solve for n

n = (1.645·21/5)² = 47.73

Round up

A sample size is a whole number, and rounding down would make the margin too large.

n = 48

Answer

n = 48
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: p = 0.02275

Hypothesis test: the test statistic = (estimate − value under H₀)/(standard error under H₀). The p-value is the probability, assuming H₀ is true, of a statistic at least as extreme as the one observed: the area in one tail for a one-sided H₁, twice the tail area for a two-sided H₁. Reject H₀ when p ≤ α.

Test statistic

SE = σ/√n = 5/√25 = 1
z = (48 − 50)/1 = −2

Tail area

Φ(2) = 0.9772
1 − Φ(2) = 0.0228

p-value

p = 0.02275

Answer

p = 0.02275

p ≤ 0.05, so H₀ is rejected at the 5% level.

6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: z = −0.7175

Hypothesis test: the test statistic = (estimate − value under H₀)/(standard error under H₀). The p-value is the probability, assuming H₀ is true, of a statistic at least as extreme as the one observed: the area in one tail for a one-sided H₁, twice the tail area for a two-sided H₁. Reject H₀ when p ≤ α.

Sample proportions

p̂₁ = 42/120 = 0.35
p̂₂ = 32/80 = 0.4
p̂ = 74/200 = 0.37

Standard error under H₀

SE = √(0.37·0.63·(1/120 + 1/80)) = 0.06969

Test statistic

z = (0.35 − 0.4)/0.06969 = −0.7175

Answer

z = −0.7175

|z| < 1.96, so H₀ is not rejected at the 5% level (two-sided).

7.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: r = 0.9519

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Centred sums

Sxy = 1694 − 35·232/5 = 70
Sxx = 285 − 35²/5 = 40
Syy = 10900 − 232²/5 = 135.2

Correlation coefficient

r = 70/√(40·135.2) = 0.9519

Answer

r = 0.9519
8.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: e = 3.333

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 21/6 = 3.5
ȳ = 130/6 = 21.67

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 17.5
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = −40

Regression line

b = −40/17.5 = −2.286
a = 21.67 − (−2.286)·3.5 = 29.67
ŷ = 29.67 − 2.286·x

Predicted value

ŷ = 29.67 + (−2.286)·3.5 = 21.67

Residual

e = 25 − 21.67 = 3.333

Answer

e = 3.333

The point lies above the line.

9.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ² = 4.54

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected counts

day shift: 80·50/200 = 20, 80·70/200 = 28, 80·80/200 = 32
night shift: 120·50/200 = 30, 120·70/200 = 42, 120·80/200 = 48

Chi-square statistic

χ² = (26 − 20)²/20 + (23 − 28)²/28 + (31 − 32)²/32 + (24 − 30)²/30 + (47 − 42)²/42 + (49 − 48)²/48
χ² = 4.54

Answer

χ² = 4.54

df = 2. At α = 0.05 the critical value is 5.991, so H₀ (independence) is not rejected.

10.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ² = 8.932

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected counts

line 1: 48, 12
line 2: 48, 12
line 3: 64, 16

Chi-square statistic

χ² = (55 − 48)²/48 + (5 − 12)²/12 + (48 − 48)²/48 + (12 − 12)²/12 + (57 − 64)²/64 + (23 − 16)²/16
χ² = 8.932

Decision

df = 2, χ²crit = 5.991
8.932 > 5.991

Answer

χ² = 8.932

χ² is above the critical value, so H₀ is rejected: the variables appear to be related.

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