Statistics 2: Statistical Inference: cram pack

Formula sheets, the key method steps for every topic and 10 practice problems, with full solutions at the back.

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1Formulas and methods

Normal distribution

z-score
z = (x − μ)/σ
Below x
P(X < x) = Φ(z)
Above x
P(X > x) = 1 − Φ(z)
Between
Φ(z2) − Φ(z1)
Percentile
x = μ + z·σ

Method

  1. Convert the value to a z-score: z = (x − μ)/σ.
  2. Look up Φ(z), the area to the left of z.
  3. For the area to the right use 1 − Φ(z); for an interval subtract the two left areas.
  4. For a percentile, work backwards: find z for the area, then x = μ + z·σ.

Confidence intervals

σ known
x̄ ± z·σ/√n
σ unknown
x̄ ± t·s/√n, df = n − 1
Critical z
90%: 1.645, 95%: 1.96, 99%: 2.576
Sample size
n = (z·σ/E)², rounded up

Method

  1. Decide between z (population σ known) and t (only the sample s, with n − 1 degrees of freedom).
  2. Find the critical value for the confidence level.
  3. Margin of error: E = critical value × standard deviation/√n.
  4. Interval: x̄ ± E.

Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

z-test for a mean
z = (x̄ − μ0)/(σ/√n)
t-test for a mean
t = (x̄ − μ0)/(s/√n), df = n − 1
Two-sided at 5%
reject H0 if |z| > 1.96
Confidence interval
x̄ ± z·σ/√n

Method

  1. State H₀ and H₁ and decide whether the test is one- or two-sided.
  2. Calculate the test statistic: (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n), or with s and t.
  3. Compare with the critical value, or find the p-value.
  4. Reject H₀ if the statistic is beyond the critical value (p below α), and state the conclusion in words.

Linear regression & correlation

Sums of squares
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = Σx² − (Σx)²/n, Sxy = Σxy − ΣxΣy/n
Slope
b = Sxy/Sxx
Intercept
a = ȳ − b·x̄
Correlation
r = Sxy/√(SxxSyy)
Residual
e = y − ŷ

Chi-square tests

Test statistic
χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E
Goodness of fit
E = n·p, df = k − 1 − (estimated parameters)
Independence
E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1)
Critical values (α = 0.05)
df 1: 3.841, 2: 5.991, 3: 7.815, 4: 9.488
Decision
reject H0 if χ² > χ²crit

2Practice problems

1.Normal distributionMedium
−3−2−10123zshaded area to the right of z = 0.9115

Drag z so that the shaded area under the standard normal curve, to the right of z, is 0.9115. Find z to two decimals.

A = 0.9115
z =
2.Normal distributionHard
557085100115130145pointstop 75%

The IQ scores are normally distributed with mean 100 points and standard deviation 15 points. Drag the cut-off so the shaded top 75% is to the right of it. Find the cut-off x.

μ = 100 pointsσ = 15 points75%
x = points
3.Confidence intervalsMedium
x̄E₁ = 3.995%, n = 25x̄E₂ = ?95%, n = 100

A 95% confidence interval for a mean, based on 25 observations and a known σ, has a margin of error of 3.9. What is the margin of error E₂ if the same study uses 100 observations instead?

95%n₁ = 25E₁ = 3.9n₂ = 100
E₂ =
4.Confidence intervalsHard
σ = 9, n = ?x̄ − Ex̄ + Ex̄E = 290%

The population standard deviation is 9. How large a sample n do you need so that a 90% confidence interval for the mean has a margin of error of at most 2?

σ = 9E = 290%
n =
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
−2.0862.086t = ?df = 20

Two teaching methods are compared. Group 1: 17 students, mean score 82.5, standard deviation 12. Group 2: 5 students, mean score 87.3, standard deviation 11. Assume equal population variances and use the pooled two-sample t test. Find the test statistic t for H₀: μ₁ = μ₂, taking the difference as x̄₁ − x̄₂ (group 1 minus group 2).

n₁ = 17x̄₁ = 82.5s₁ = 12n₂ = 5x̄₂ = 87.3s₂ = 11
t =
6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
−1.961.96z = ?

In a trial, 55 of 100 patients on treatment A recover, and 79 of 120 patients on treatment B. Using the pooled proportion, find the test statistic z for H₀: p₁ = p₂.

x₁ = 55n₁ = 100x₂ = 79n₂ = 120
z =
7.Linear regression & correlationMedium
xy1483535677799851192xy5106080

The table gives 6 paired observations of x = advertising spend in k€ and y = sales in k€. Find the coefficient of determination r² of the least-squares line.

n = 6
r² =
8.Linear regression & correlationHard
xy24496168191023xy5101020x = 7

The table gives 5 paired observations of x = load in kN and y = extension in mm. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. A new observation (7, 19) is made. Find its residual e = y − ŷ.

n = 5(7, 19)
e =
9.Chi-square testsMedium
busbikecarTotalstudents8302260staff163450100Total246472160

The contingency table shows observed counts. Compute the chi-square statistic χ² for the test of independence between the row and column variables. Do not use a continuity correction.

N = 1602 × 3
χ² =
10.Chi-square testsHard
passfailTotalplant A291140plant B423880plant C6139100Total13288220dfα = 0.05α = 0.0113.8416.63525.9919.21037.81511.34549.48813.277511.07015.086612.59216.812714.06718.475815.50720.090916.91921.6661018.30723.209

The table shows observed counts. Test at α = 0.05 whether the two variables are independent (no continuity correction). Compute the test statistic χ², then compare it with the critical value from the table.

N = 2203 × 2α = 0.05
χ² =

3Solutions

1.Normal distribution

Answer: z = −1.35

From an area back to z: Φ(z) is the area to the left of z. For a left-tail area A, find z with Φ(z) = A in the table. A right-tail area A means Φ(z) = 1 − A. A central area A between −z and z leaves (1 − A)/2 in each tail, so Φ(z) = (1 + A)/2. For a value x, use x = μ + zσ.

Area to the left of z

Φ(z) = 1 − 0.9115 = 0.0885

Read the z-table backwards

Find 0.0885 inside the table and read off z.

z = −1.35

Answer

z = −1.35
2.Normal distribution

Answer: x = 90 points

From an area back to z: Φ(z) is the area to the left of z. For a left-tail area A, find z with Φ(z) = A in the table. A right-tail area A means Φ(z) = 1 − A. A central area A between −z and z leaves (1 − A)/2 in each tail, so Φ(z) = (1 + A)/2. For a value x, use x = μ + zσ.

Area to the left

Φ(z) = 0.25

z from the table

z ≈ −0.67

Back to the original units

x = 100 − 0.67·15 = 90 points

Answer

x = 90 points
3.Confidence intervals

Answer: E₂ = 1.95

Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.

Ratio of margins

E₂/E₁ = (1.96/1.96)·√(25/100) = 0.5

New margin

E₂ = 3.9·0.5 = 1.95

Answer

E₂ = 1.95
4.Confidence intervals

Answer: n = 55

Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.

Solve for n

n = (1.645·9/2)² = 54.8

Round up

A sample size is a whole number, and rounding down would make the margin too large.

n = 55

Answer

n = 55
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: t = −0.7991

Hypothesis test: the test statistic = (estimate − value under H₀)/(standard error under H₀). The p-value is the probability, assuming H₀ is true, of a statistic at least as extreme as the one observed: the area in one tail for a one-sided H₁, twice the tail area for a two-sided H₁. Reject H₀ when p ≤ α.

Pooled variance

sp² = (16·12² + 4·11²)/20 = 139.4
sp = 11.81

Standard error

SE = 11.81·√(1/17 + 1/5) = 6.007

Test statistic

t = (82.5 − 87.3)/6.007 = −0.7991

Answer

t = −0.7991

With df = 20, the two-sided 5% critical value is 2.086; |t| is smaller, so H₀ is not rejected.

6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: z = −1.64

Hypothesis test: the test statistic = (estimate − value under H₀)/(standard error under H₀). The p-value is the probability, assuming H₀ is true, of a statistic at least as extreme as the one observed: the area in one tail for a one-sided H₁, twice the tail area for a two-sided H₁. Reject H₀ when p ≤ α.

Sample proportions

p̂₁ = 55/100 = 0.55
p̂₂ = 79/120 = 0.6583
p̂ = 134/220 = 0.6091

Standard error under H₀

SE = √(0.6091·0.3909·(1/100 + 1/120)) = 0.06607

Test statistic

z = (0.55 − 0.6583)/0.06607 = −1.64

Answer

z = −1.64

|z| < 1.96, so H₀ is not rejected at the 5% level (two-sided).

7.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: r² = 0.9793

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 36/6 = 6
ȳ = 424/6 = 70.67

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 70
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 328
Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² = 1569

Coefficient of determination

r² = 328²/(70·1569) = 0.9793

Answer

r² = 0.9793

About 97.93% of the variation in y is explained by the line.

8.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: e = 2.4

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 30/5 = 6
ȳ = 71/5 = 14.2

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 40
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 96

Regression line

b = 96/40 = 2.4
a = 14.2 − 2.4·6 = −0.2
ŷ = −0.2 + 2.4·x

Predicted value

ŷ = −0.2 + 2.4·7 = 16.6

Residual

e = 19 − 16.6 = 2.4

Answer

e = 2.4

The point lies above the line.

9.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ² = 4.059

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected counts

students: 60·24/160 = 9, 60·64/160 = 24, 60·72/160 = 27
staff: 100·24/160 = 15, 100·64/160 = 40, 100·72/160 = 45

Chi-square statistic

χ² = (8 − 9)²/9 + (30 − 24)²/24 + (22 − 27)²/27 + (16 − 15)²/15 + (34 − 40)²/40 + (50 − 45)²/45
χ² = 4.059

Answer

χ² = 4.059

df = 2. At α = 0.05 the critical value is 5.991, so H₀ (independence) is not rejected.

10.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ² = 4.521

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected counts

plant A: 24, 16
plant B: 48, 32
plant C: 60, 40

Chi-square statistic

χ² = (29 − 24)²/24 + (11 − 16)²/16 + (42 − 48)²/48 + (38 − 32)²/32 + (61 − 60)²/60 + (39 − 40)²/40
χ² = 4.521

Decision

df = 2, χ²crit = 5.991
4.521 < 5.991

Answer

χ² = 4.521

χ² is below the critical value, so H₀ is not rejected: there is no significant evidence of a relationship.

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