Statistics 2: Statistical Inference: cram pack

Formula sheets, the key method steps for every topic and 10 practice problems, with full solutions at the back.

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1Formulas and methods

Normal distribution

z-score
z = (x − μ)/σ
Below x
P(X < x) = Φ(z)
Above x
P(X > x) = 1 − Φ(z)
Between
Φ(z2) − Φ(z1)
Percentile
x = μ + z·σ

Method

  1. Convert the value to a z-score: z = (x − μ)/σ.
  2. Look up Φ(z), the area to the left of z.
  3. For the area to the right use 1 − Φ(z); for an interval subtract the two left areas.
  4. For a percentile, work backwards: find z for the area, then x = μ + z·σ.

Confidence intervals

σ known
x̄ ± z·σ/√n
σ unknown
x̄ ± t·s/√n, df = n − 1
Critical z
90%: 1.645, 95%: 1.96, 99%: 2.576
Sample size
n = (z·σ/E)², rounded up

Method

  1. Decide between z (population σ known) and t (only the sample s, with n − 1 degrees of freedom).
  2. Find the critical value for the confidence level.
  3. Margin of error: E = critical value × standard deviation/√n.
  4. Interval: x̄ ± E.

Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

z-test for a mean
z = (x̄ − μ0)/(σ/√n)
t-test for a mean
t = (x̄ − μ0)/(s/√n), df = n − 1
Two-sided at 5%
reject H0 if |z| > 1.96
Confidence interval
x̄ ± z·σ/√n

Method

  1. State H₀ and H₁ and decide whether the test is one- or two-sided.
  2. Calculate the test statistic: (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n), or with s and t.
  3. Compare with the critical value, or find the p-value.
  4. Reject H₀ if the statistic is beyond the critical value (p below α), and state the conclusion in words.

Linear regression & correlation

Sums of squares
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = Σx² − (Σx)²/n, Sxy = Σxy − ΣxΣy/n
Slope
b = Sxy/Sxx
Intercept
a = ȳ − b·x̄
Correlation
r = Sxy/√(SxxSyy)
Residual
e = y − ŷ

Chi-square tests

Test statistic
χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E
Goodness of fit
E = n·p, df = k − 1 − (estimated parameters)
Independence
E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1)
Critical values (α = 0.05)
df 1: 3.841, 2: 5.991, 3: 7.815, 4: 9.488
Decision
reject H0 if χ² > χ²crit

2Practice problems

1.Normal distributionMedium
−3−2−10123zshaded area between −z and z = 0.7373

Drag z so that the shaded area between −z and z under the standard normal curve is 0.7373. Find z to two decimals.

A = 0.7373
z =
2.Normal distributionHard
μ = 500x = ?75%

The battery lifetimes are normally distributed with mean 500 h and standard deviation 40 h. Find the value x below which 75% of them lie (the 75th percentile).

μ = 500σ = 40P = 75%
x = h
3.Confidence intervalsMedium
n = 20, s = 2LUx̄ = 48E = ?95%

A sample of 20 items has mean 48 and standard deviation s = 2. The population is roughly normal. Find the margin of error E of a 95% confidence interval for the mean.

n = 20x̄ = 48s = 295%t(19) = 2.093
E =
4.Confidence intervalsHard
σ = 34, n = ?x̄ − Ex̄ + Ex̄E = 590%

The population standard deviation is 34. How large a sample n do you need so that a 90% confidence interval for the mean has a margin of error of at most 5?

σ = 34E = 590%
n =
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
t −2.06402.064

A sample of 25 students has a mean score of 118.6 and a sample standard deviation of 5. Find the test statistic t for H₀: μ = 120.

μ₀ = 120x̄ = 118.6s = 5n = 25
t =
6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
z −1.9601.96

A sample of 81 measurements has mean 50.8. The population standard deviation is 5. Find the upper limit U of the 95% confidence interval for the mean.

x̄ = 50.8σ = 5n = 8195%
U =
7.Linear regression & correlationMedium
xy348447558665772877xy46850607080

The table gives 6 paired observations of x = advertising spend in k€ and y = sales in k€. Find the coefficient of determination r² of the least-squares line.

n = 6
r² =
8.Linear regression & correlationHard
xy248351450562659768xy246506070x = 2.5

The table gives 6 paired observations of x = advertising spend in k€ and y = sales in k€. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. A new observation (2.5, 46) is made. Find its residual e = y − ŷ.

n = 6(2.5, 46)
e =
9.Chi-square testsMedium
busbikecarTotalstudents18283480staff12141440Total304248120

The contingency table shows observed counts. Compute the chi-square statistic χ² for the test of independence between the row and column variables. Do not use a continuity correction.

N = 1202 × 3
χ² =
10.Chi-square testsHard
dfα = 0.05α = 0.0113.8416.63525.9919.21037.81511.34549.48813.277511.07015.086612.59216.812714.06718.475815.50720.090916.91921.6661018.30723.209

A chi-square test of independence is carried out on a contingency table with 3 rows and 3 columns (not counting the totals). Using the table, find the critical value χ²crit at significance level α = 0.05.

α = 0.05
χ²crit =

3Solutions

1.Normal distribution

Answer: z = 1.12

From an area back to z: Φ(z) is the area to the left of z. For a left-tail area A, find z with Φ(z) = A in the table. A right-tail area A means Φ(z) = 1 − A. A central area A between −z and z leaves (1 − A)/2 in each tail, so Φ(z) = (1 + A)/2. For a value x, use x = μ + zσ.

Area to the left of z

Φ(z) = (1 + 0.7373)/2 = 0.8686

Read the z-table backwards

Find 0.8686 inside the table and read off z.

z = 1.12

Answer

z = 1.12
2.Normal distribution

Answer: x = 527 h

Normal distribution: convert a value x to a z-score, z = (x − μ)/σ, which counts standard deviations from the mean. A z-table (or Φ(z)) gives the area to the left of z, which is P(X < x). The area to the right is 1 − Φ(z), and the area between two values is the difference of their two areas.

z for the percentile

Φ(z) = 0.75 → z = 0.6745

Back to x

x = 500 + 0.6745·40 = 526.98 h

Answer

x = 526.98 h
3.Confidence intervals

Answer: E = 0.936

Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.

Critical value

df = n − 1 = 19, t = 2.093

Margin of error

E = 2.093·2/√20 = 0.936

Answer

E = 0.936
4.Confidence intervals

Answer: n = 126

Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.

Solve for n

n = (1.645·34/5)² = 125.1

Round up

A sample size is a whole number, and rounding down would make the margin too large.

n = 126

Answer

n = 126
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: t = −1.4

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Standard error

SE = 5/√25 = 5/5 = 1

Test statistic

t = (118.6 − 120)/1 = −1.4

Answer

t = −1.4
t0.025; df = 24 = 2.064

|t| < 2.064, so H₀ is not rejected at the 5% level (two-sided).

6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: U = 51.89

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Margin of error

E = 1.96·5/√81 = 1.089

Interval limit

U = 50.8 + 1.089 = 51.89

Answer

U = 51.89
7.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: r² = 0.96

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 33/6 = 5.5
ȳ = 367/6 = 61.17

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 17.5
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 113.5
Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² = 766.8

Coefficient of determination

r² = 113.5²/(17.5·766.8) = 0.96

Answer

r² = 0.96

About 96% of the variation in y is explained by the line.

8.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: e = −2.562

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 27/6 = 4.5
ȳ = 338/6 = 56.33

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 17.5
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 68

Regression line

b = 68/17.5 = 3.886
a = 56.33 − 3.886·4.5 = 38.85
ŷ = 38.85 + 3.886·x

Predicted value

ŷ = 38.85 + 3.886·2.5 = 48.56

Residual

e = 46 − 48.56 = −2.562

Answer

e = −2.562

The point lies below the line.

9.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ² = 0.975

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected counts

students: 80·30/120 = 20, 80·42/120 = 28, 80·48/120 = 32
staff: 40·30/120 = 10, 40·42/120 = 14, 40·48/120 = 16

Chi-square statistic

χ² = (18 − 20)²/20 + (28 − 28)²/28 + (34 − 32)²/32 + (12 − 10)²/10 + (14 − 14)²/14 + (14 − 16)²/16
χ² = 0.975

Answer

χ² = 0.975

df = 2. At α = 0.05 the critical value is 5.991, so H₀ (independence) is not rejected.

10.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ²crit = 9.488

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Degrees of freedom

df = (3 − 1)·(3 − 1) = 4

Table

χ²crit(df = 4, α = 0.05) = 9.488

Answer

χ²crit = 9.488

Reject H₀ if the computed χ² is larger than this value.

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