Statistics 2: Statistical Inference: cram pack

Formula sheets, the key method steps for every topic and 10 practice problems, with full solutions at the back.

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1Formulas and methods

Normal distribution

z-score
z = (x − μ)/σ
Below x
P(X < x) = Φ(z)
Above x
P(X > x) = 1 − Φ(z)
Between
Φ(z2) − Φ(z1)
Percentile
x = μ + z·σ

Method

  1. Convert the value to a z-score: z = (x − μ)/σ.
  2. Look up Φ(z), the area to the left of z.
  3. For the area to the right use 1 − Φ(z); for an interval subtract the two left areas.
  4. For a percentile, work backwards: find z for the area, then x = μ + z·σ.

Confidence intervals

σ known
x̄ ± z·σ/√n
σ unknown
x̄ ± t·s/√n, df = n − 1
Critical z
90%: 1.645, 95%: 1.96, 99%: 2.576
Sample size
n = (z·σ/E)², rounded up

Method

  1. Decide between z (population σ known) and t (only the sample s, with n − 1 degrees of freedom).
  2. Find the critical value for the confidence level.
  3. Margin of error: E = critical value × standard deviation/√n.
  4. Interval: x̄ ± E.

Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

z-test for a mean
z = (x̄ − μ0)/(σ/√n)
t-test for a mean
t = (x̄ − μ0)/(s/√n), df = n − 1
Two-sided at 5%
reject H0 if |z| > 1.96
Confidence interval
x̄ ± z·σ/√n

Method

  1. State H₀ and H₁ and decide whether the test is one- or two-sided.
  2. Calculate the test statistic: (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n), or with s and t.
  3. Compare with the critical value, or find the p-value.
  4. Reject H₀ if the statistic is beyond the critical value (p below α), and state the conclusion in words.

Linear regression & correlation

Sums of squares
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = Σx² − (Σx)²/n, Sxy = Σxy − ΣxΣy/n
Slope
b = Sxy/Sxx
Intercept
a = ȳ − b·x̄
Correlation
r = Sxy/√(SxxSyy)
Residual
e = y − ŷ

Chi-square tests

Test statistic
χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E
Goodness of fit
E = n·p, df = k − 1 − (estimated parameters)
Independence
E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1)
Critical values (α = 0.05)
df 1: 3.841, 2: 5.991, 3: 7.815, 4: 9.488
Decision
reject H0 if χ² > χ²crit

2Practice problems

1.Normal distributionMedium
−3−2−10123zshaded area to the right of z = 0.6293

Drag z so that the shaded area under the standard normal curve, to the right of z, is 0.6293. Find z to two decimals.

A = 0.6293
z =
2.Normal distributionHard
μ = 500x = ?5%

The battery lifetimes are normally distributed with mean 500 h and standard deviation 40 h. Find the value x below which 5% of them lie (the 5th percentile).

μ = 500σ = 40P = 5%
x = h
3.Confidence intervalsMedium
μ₁ − μ₂0LU = ?x̄₁ − x̄₂E90%

The battery life of two phone models is compared. Model 1: 100 phones, mean 146 h, known standard deviation 8 h. Model 2: 40 phones, mean 135 h, known standard deviation 15 h. Find the upper limit of the 90% confidence interval for μ₁ − μ₂.

n₁ = 100x̄₁ = 146 hσ₁ = 8 hn₂ = 40x̄₂ = 135 hσ₂ = 15 h90%
upper limit = h
4.Confidence intervalsHard
n = 25σ = ?Us = 9.495%

The diameters of 25 machined shafts have a sample standard deviation of 9.4 µm. Assuming the diameters are normally distributed, find the lower limit σ of the 95% confidence interval for the population standard deviation. With df = 24, 2.5% of the χ² distribution lies below 12.401 and 2.5% lies above 39.364.

n = 25s = 9.4 µmχ² = 12.401, 39.364
σ = µm
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
t −2.13102.131

A sample of 16 students has a mean score of 501.7 and a sample standard deviation of 4. Find the test statistic t for H₀: μ = 500.

μ₀ = 500x̄ = 501.7s = 4n = 16
t =
6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
z −2.57602.576

A sample of 49 measurements has mean 120.9. The population standard deviation is 15. Find the upper limit U of the 99% confidence interval for the mean.

x̄ = 120.9σ = 15n = 4999%
U =
7.Linear regression & correlationMedium
xy127221319419516xy242025

The table gives 5 paired observations of x = car age in years and y = price in k€. Find the coefficient of determination r² of the least-squares line.

n = 5
r² =
8.Linear regression & correlationHard
xy127221322419518xy242025x = 1.5

The table gives 5 paired observations of x = car age in years and y = price in k€. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. A new observation (1.5, 21) is made. Find its residual e = y − ŷ.

n = 5(1.5, 21)
e =
9.Chi-square testsMedium
busbikecarTotalstudents3093574staff8161236Total382547110

The contingency table shows observed counts. For a chi-square test of independence, find the expected count E for the cell “staff, bus”.

row total = 36column total = 38N = 110
E =
10.Chi-square testsHard
dfα = 0.05α = 0.0113.8416.63525.9919.21037.81511.34549.48813.277511.07015.086612.59216.812714.06718.475815.50720.090916.91921.6661018.30723.209

A chi-square test of independence is carried out on a contingency table with 2 rows and 11 columns (not counting the totals). Using the table, find the critical value χ²crit at significance level α = 0.01.

α = 0.01
χ²crit =

3Solutions

1.Normal distribution

Answer: z = −0.33

From an area back to z: Φ(z) is the area to the left of z. For a left-tail area A, find z with Φ(z) = A in the table. A right-tail area A means Φ(z) = 1 − A. A central area A between −z and z leaves (1 − A)/2 in each tail, so Φ(z) = (1 + A)/2. For a value x, use x = μ + zσ.

Area to the left of z

Φ(z) = 1 − 0.6293 = 0.3707

Read the z-table backwards

Find 0.3707 inside the table and read off z.

z = −0.33

Answer

z = −0.33
2.Normal distribution

Answer: x = 434.2 h

Normal distribution: convert a value x to a z-score, z = (x − μ)/σ, which counts standard deviations from the mean. A z-table (or Φ(z)) gives the area to the left of z, which is P(X < x). The area to the right is 1 − Φ(z), and the area between two values is the difference of their two areas.

z for the percentile

Φ(z) = 0.05 → z = −1.645

Back to x

x = 500 + −1.645·40 = 434.2 h

Answer

x = 434.2 h
3.Confidence intervals

Answer: upper limit = 15.12 h

Interval for a difference: estimate ± critical value × standard error. For two independent means with known σ: SE = √(σ₁²/n₁ + σ₂²/n₂) and z. With equal unknown variances: pooled s_p and t with n₁ + n₂ − 2 degrees of freedom. For paired data, work with the differences: d̄ ± t·s_d/√n.

Point estimate

x̄₁ − x̄₂ = 146 − 135 = 11

Standard error

SE = √(8²/100 + 15²/40) = 2.503

Margin of error

E = 1.645·2.503 = 4.117

Interval

11 ± 4.117 → [6.883, 15.12]

Answer

upper limit = 15.12 h

The interval does not contain 0, so the means differ significantly.

4.Confidence intervals

Answer: σ = 7.34 µm

Interval for a variance: (n − 1)s²/σ² has a χ² distribution with n − 1 degrees of freedom. The 95% interval for σ² runs from (n − 1)s² divided by the upper χ² value (2.5% above it) to (n − 1)s² divided by the lower χ² value (2.5% below it); the interval for σ is the square root of both limits. It is not symmetric around s.

Sum of squares

(n − 1)s² = 24·9.4² = 2121

Limits for σ²

2121/39.364 = 53.87
2121/12.401 = 171

Limit for σ

σ = √53.87 = 7.34 µm

Answer

σ = 7.34 µm

95% interval for σ: [7.34, 13.08] µm.

5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: t = 1.7

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Standard error

SE = 4/√16 = 4/4 = 1

Test statistic

t = (501.7 − 500)/1 = 1.7

Answer

t = 1.7
t0.025; df = 15 = 2.131

|t| < 2.131, so H₀ is not rejected at the 5% level (two-sided).

6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: U = 126.4

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Margin of error

E = 2.576·15/√49 = 5.52

Interval limit

U = 120.9 + 5.52 = 126.4

Answer

U = 126.4
7.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: r² = 0.8571

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 15/5 = 3
ȳ = 102/5 = 20.4

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 10
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = −24
Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² = 67.2

Coefficient of determination

r² = −24²/(10·67.2) = 0.8571

Answer

r² = 0.8571

About 85.71% of the variation in y is explained by the line.

8.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: e = −3.4

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 15/5 = 3
ȳ = 107/5 = 21.4

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 10
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = −20

Regression line

b = −20/10 = −2
a = 21.4 − (−2)·3 = 27.4
ŷ = 27.4 − 2·x

Predicted value

ŷ = 27.4 + (−2)·1.5 = 24.4

Residual

e = 21 − 24.4 = −3.4

Answer

e = −3.4

The point lies below the line.

9.Chi-square tests

Answer: E = 12.44

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected count

E = 36·38/110 = 12.44

Answer

E = 12.44
10.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ²crit = 23.21

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Degrees of freedom

df = (2 − 1)·(11 − 1) = 10

Table

χ²crit(df = 10, α = 0.01) = 23.209

Answer

χ²crit = 23.209

Reject H₀ if the computed χ² is larger than this value.

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