Statistics 2: Statistical Inference: cram pack

Formula sheets, the key method steps for every topic and 10 practice problems, with full solutions at the back.

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1Formulas and methods

Normal distribution

z-score
z = (x − μ)/σ
Below x
P(X < x) = Φ(z)
Above x
P(X > x) = 1 − Φ(z)
Between
Φ(z2) − Φ(z1)
Percentile
x = μ + z·σ

Method

  1. Convert the value to a z-score: z = (x − μ)/σ.
  2. Look up Φ(z), the area to the left of z.
  3. For the area to the right use 1 − Φ(z); for an interval subtract the two left areas.
  4. For a percentile, work backwards: find z for the area, then x = μ + z·σ.

Confidence intervals

σ known
x̄ ± z·σ/√n
σ unknown
x̄ ± t·s/√n, df = n − 1
Critical z
90%: 1.645, 95%: 1.96, 99%: 2.576
Sample size
n = (z·σ/E)², rounded up

Method

  1. Decide between z (population σ known) and t (only the sample s, with n − 1 degrees of freedom).
  2. Find the critical value for the confidence level.
  3. Margin of error: E = critical value × standard deviation/√n.
  4. Interval: x̄ ± E.

Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

z-test for a mean
z = (x̄ − μ0)/(σ/√n)
t-test for a mean
t = (x̄ − μ0)/(s/√n), df = n − 1
Two-sided at 5%
reject H0 if |z| > 1.96
Confidence interval
x̄ ± z·σ/√n

Method

  1. State H₀ and H₁ and decide whether the test is one- or two-sided.
  2. Calculate the test statistic: (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n), or with s and t.
  3. Compare with the critical value, or find the p-value.
  4. Reject H₀ if the statistic is beyond the critical value (p below α), and state the conclusion in words.

Linear regression & correlation

Sums of squares
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = Σx² − (Σx)²/n, Sxy = Σxy − ΣxΣy/n
Slope
b = Sxy/Sxx
Intercept
a = ȳ − b·x̄
Correlation
r = Sxy/√(SxxSyy)
Residual
e = y − ŷ

Chi-square tests

Test statistic
χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E
Goodness of fit
E = n·p, df = k − 1 − (estimated parameters)
Independence
E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1)
Critical values (α = 0.05)
df 1: 3.841, 2: 5.991, 3: 7.815, 4: 9.488
Decision
reject H0 if χ² > χ²crit

2Practice problems

1.Normal distributionMedium
680 kg730.9 kgT = X₁ + … + X₈?

The masses of passengers with luggage are independent and normal with mean 85 kg and standard deviation 12 kg. Find the probability P that the total mass of 8 of them exceeds 730.9 kg. Round z to two decimals.

μ = 85 kgσ = 12 kgn = 8> 730.9 kg
P =
2.Normal distributionHard
μ = 250x = ?10%

The bag weights are normally distributed with mean 250 g and standard deviation 5 g. Find the value x below which 10% of them lie (the 10th percentile).

μ = 250σ = 5P = 10%
x = g
3.Confidence intervalsMedium
n = 6, sd​ = 6.30LUd̄ = −8.8E = ?99%

The blood pressure of 6 patients is measured before and after a treatment. The differences d = before − after (mmHg) have mean −8.8 and standard deviation 6.3. Find the margin of error E of the 99% confidence interval for the mean difference.

n = 6d̄ = −8.8sd = 6.399%t(5) = 4.032
E = mmHg
4.Confidence intervalsHard
σ = 34, n = ?x̄ − Ex̄ + Ex̄E = 1.590%

The population standard deviation is 34. How large a sample n do you need so that a 90% confidence interval for the mean has a margin of error of at most 1.5?

σ = 34E = 1.590%
n =
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
t −1.98401.984

A sample of 100 students has a mean score of 198.3 and a sample standard deviation of 12. Find the test statistic t for H₀: μ = 200.

μ₀ = 200x̄ = 198.3s = 12n = 100
t =
6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
σ = 8, n = ?x̄ − Ex̄ + Ex̄E = 295%

How large must a sample be so that the 95% confidence interval for a mean has a margin of error of at most 2? The standard deviation is 8. Find the smallest sample size n.

σ = 8E = 295%
n =
7.Linear regression & correlationMedium
xy124222319414512611xy24610152025

The table gives 6 paired observations of x = car age in years and y = price in k€. Find Pearson's correlation coefficient r.

n = 6
r =
8.Linear regression & correlationHard
xy244345454556659763xy2465060x = 6.5

The table gives 6 paired observations of x = hours studied and y = exam score. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. A new observation (6.5, 59) is made. Find its residual e = y − ŷ.

n = 6(6.5, 59)
e =
9.Chi-square testsMedium
yesnoTotalmen2773100women453580Total72108180

The contingency table shows observed counts. Compute the chi-square statistic χ² for the test of independence between the row and column variables. Do not use a continuity correction.

N = 1802 × 2
χ² =
10.Chi-square testsHard

A chi-square goodness-of-fit test compares observed counts in 6 categories with fully specified expected proportions (no parameters are estimated from the data). How many degrees of freedom df does the test have?

k = 6
df =

3Solutions

1.Normal distribution

Answer: P = 0.06681

Sums and differences of normal variables: if X and Y are independent and normal, X + Y and X − Y are normal too. Means add or subtract: E(X ± Y) = μX ± μY. Variances always add, also for a difference: Var(X ± Y) = σX² + σY², so σ = √(σX² + σY²). Standard deviations never add directly. The total of n independent items with the same distribution has mean n·μ and standard deviation σ·√n. Then standardise as usual: z = (x − mean)/σ and read Φ(z).

Distribution of the total

μT = 680 kg, σT = 12·√8 = 33.94 kg

Standardise

z = (730.9 − 680)/33.94 = 1.5

Probability

P = 1 − Φ(1.5) = 0.06681

Answer

P = 0.06681
2.Normal distribution

Answer: x = 243.6 g

Normal distribution: convert a value x to a z-score, z = (x − μ)/σ, which counts standard deviations from the mean. A z-table (or Φ(z)) gives the area to the left of z, which is P(X < x). The area to the right is 1 − Φ(z), and the area between two values is the difference of their two areas.

z for the percentile

Φ(z) = 0.1 → z = −1.282

Back to x

x = 250 + −1.282·5 = 243.59 g

Answer

x = 243.59 g
3.Confidence intervals

Answer: E = 10.37 mmHg

Interval for a difference: estimate ± critical value × standard error. For two independent means with known σ: SE = √(σ₁²/n₁ + σ₂²/n₂) and z. With equal unknown variances: pooled s_p and t with n₁ + n₂ − 2 degrees of freedom. For paired data, work with the differences: d̄ ± t·s_d/√n.

Critical value

df = 5, t = 4.032

Margin of error

E = 4.032·6.3/√6 = 10.37

Answer

E = 10.37 mmHg
4.Confidence intervals

Answer: n = 1391

Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.

Solve for n

n = (1.645·34/1.5)² = 1390

Round up

A sample size is a whole number, and rounding down would make the margin too large.

n = 1391

Answer

n = 1391
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: t = −1.417

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Standard error

SE = 12/√100 = 12/10 = 1.2

Test statistic

t = (198.3 − 200)/1.2 = −1.417

Answer

t = −1.417
t0.025; df = 99 = 1.984

|t| < 1.984, so H₀ is not rejected at the 5% level (two-sided).

6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: n = 62

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Solve for n

n = (1.96·8/2)² = 61.47

Round up

n = 62

Answer

n = 62
7.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: r = −0.9825

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 21/6 = 3.5
ȳ = 102/6 = 17

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 17.5
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = −50
Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² = 148

Correlation coefficient

r = −50/√(17.5·148) = −0.9825

Answer

r = −0.9825
8.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: e = −2.443

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 27/6 = 4.5
ȳ = 321/6 = 53.5

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 17.5
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 69.5

Regression line

b = 69.5/17.5 = 3.971
a = 53.5 − 3.971·4.5 = 35.63
ŷ = 35.63 + 3.971·x

Predicted value

ŷ = 35.63 + 3.971·6.5 = 61.44

Residual

e = 59 − 61.44 = −2.443

Answer

e = −2.443

The point lies below the line.

9.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ² = 15.84

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected counts

men: 100·72/180 = 40, 100·108/180 = 60
women: 80·72/180 = 32, 80·108/180 = 48

Chi-square statistic

χ² = (27 − 40)²/40 + (73 − 60)²/60 + (45 − 32)²/32 + (35 − 48)²/48
χ² = 15.84

Answer

χ² = 15.84

df = 1. At α = 0.05 the critical value is 3.841, so H₀ (independence) is rejected.

10.Chi-square tests

Answer: df = 5

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Degrees of freedom

df = 6 − 1 = 5

Answer

df = 5

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