Statistics 2: Statistical Inference: cram pack

Formula sheets, the key method steps for every topic and 10 practice problems, with full solutions at the back.

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1Formulas and methods

Normal distribution

z-score
z = (x − μ)/σ
Below x
P(X < x) = Φ(z)
Above x
P(X > x) = 1 − Φ(z)
Between
Φ(z2) − Φ(z1)
Percentile
x = μ + z·σ

Method

  1. Convert the value to a z-score: z = (x − μ)/σ.
  2. Look up Φ(z), the area to the left of z.
  3. For the area to the right use 1 − Φ(z); for an interval subtract the two left areas.
  4. For a percentile, work backwards: find z for the area, then x = μ + z·σ.

Confidence intervals

σ known
x̄ ± z·σ/√n
σ unknown
x̄ ± t·s/√n, df = n − 1
Critical z
90%: 1.645, 95%: 1.96, 99%: 2.576
Sample size
n = (z·σ/E)², rounded up

Method

  1. Decide between z (population σ known) and t (only the sample s, with n − 1 degrees of freedom).
  2. Find the critical value for the confidence level.
  3. Margin of error: E = critical value × standard deviation/√n.
  4. Interval: x̄ ± E.

Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

z-test for a mean
z = (x̄ − μ0)/(σ/√n)
t-test for a mean
t = (x̄ − μ0)/(s/√n), df = n − 1
Two-sided at 5%
reject H0 if |z| > 1.96
Confidence interval
x̄ ± z·σ/√n

Method

  1. State H₀ and H₁ and decide whether the test is one- or two-sided.
  2. Calculate the test statistic: (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n), or with s and t.
  3. Compare with the critical value, or find the p-value.
  4. Reject H₀ if the statistic is beyond the critical value (p below α), and state the conclusion in words.

Linear regression & correlation

Sums of squares
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = Σx² − (Σx)²/n, Sxy = Σxy − ΣxΣy/n
Slope
b = Sxy/Sxx
Intercept
a = ȳ − b·x̄
Correlation
r = Sxy/√(SxxSyy)
Residual
e = y − ŷ

Chi-square tests

Test statistic
χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E
Goodness of fit
E = n·p, df = k − 1 − (estimated parameters)
Independence
E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1)
Critical values (α = 0.05)
df 1: 3.841, 2: 5.991, 3: 7.815, 4: 9.488
Decision
reject H0 if χ² > χ²crit

2Practice problems

1.Normal distributionMedium
−3−2−10123zshaded area to the right of z = 0.9778

Drag z so that the shaded area under the standard normal curve, to the right of z, is 0.9778. Find z to two decimals.

A = 0.9778
z =
2.Normal distributionHard
35455565758595pointstop 5%

The exam scores are normally distributed with mean 65 points and standard deviation 10 points. Drag the cut-off so the shaded top 5% is to the right of it. Find the cut-off x.

μ = 65 pointsσ = 10 points5%
x = points
3.Confidence intervalsMedium
n = 15, s = 15L = ?Ux̄ = 92E90%

A sample of 15 items has mean 92 and standard deviation s = 15. The population is roughly normal. Find the lower limit of the 90% confidence interval for the mean.

n = 15x̄ = 92s = 1590%t(14) = 1.761
lower limit =
4.Confidence intervalsHard
σ = 27, n = ?x̄ − Ex̄ + Ex̄E = 490%

The population standard deviation is 27. How large a sample n do you need so that a 90% confidence interval for the mean has a margin of error of at most 4?

σ = 27E = 490%
n =
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
t −2.06402.064

A sample of 25 students has a mean score of 113.8 and a sample standard deviation of 10. Find the test statistic t for H₀: μ = 120.

μ₀ = 120x̄ = 113.8s = 10n = 25
t =
6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
μ₀x̄c

A one-sided z test of H₀: μ = 80 against H₁: μ > 80 is done at α = 0.05 with a sample of 64; the standard deviation is known to be 12. In reality the mean is 84.95. Find the power 1 − β of the test in percent.

μ₀ = 80μ = 84.95σ = 12n = 64α = 0.05
1 − β = %
7.Linear regression & correlationMedium
xy345447552651755861xy46845505560

The table gives 6 paired observations of x = advertising spend in k€ and y = sales in k€. Their sums are given. Find Pearson's correlation coefficient r from these sums.

n = 6Σx = 33Σy = 311Σx² = 199Σy² = 16285Σxy = 1762
r =
8.Linear regression & correlationHard
xy124225324418518xy242025x = 1.5

The table gives 5 paired observations of x = car age in years and y = price in k€. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. Predict ŷ for x = 1.5.

n = 5x = 1.5
ŷ =
9.Chi-square testsMedium
yesnoTotalmen2694120women221840Total48112160

The contingency table shows observed counts. Compute the chi-square statistic χ² for the test of independence between the row and column variables. Do not use a continuity correction.

N = 1602 × 2
χ² =
10.Chi-square testsHard

A chi-square test of independence is carried out on a contingency table with 3 rows and 6 columns (not counting the totals). How many degrees of freedom df does the test have?

3 × 6
df =

3Solutions

1.Normal distribution

Answer: z = −2.01

From an area back to z: Φ(z) is the area to the left of z. For a left-tail area A, find z with Φ(z) = A in the table. A right-tail area A means Φ(z) = 1 − A. A central area A between −z and z leaves (1 − A)/2 in each tail, so Φ(z) = (1 + A)/2. For a value x, use x = μ + zσ.

Area to the left of z

Φ(z) = 1 − 0.9778 = 0.0222

Read the z-table backwards

Find 0.0222 inside the table and read off z.

z = −2.01

Answer

z = −2.01
2.Normal distribution

Answer: x = 81.4 points

From an area back to z: Φ(z) is the area to the left of z. For a left-tail area A, find z with Φ(z) = A in the table. A right-tail area A means Φ(z) = 1 − A. A central area A between −z and z leaves (1 − A)/2 in each tail, so Φ(z) = (1 + A)/2. For a value x, use x = μ + zσ.

Area to the left

Φ(z) = 0.95

z from the table

z ≈ 1.64

Back to the original units

x = 65 + 1.64·10 = 81.4 points

Answer

x = 81.4 points
3.Confidence intervals

Answer: lower limit = 85.18

Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.

Critical value

df = n − 1 = 14, t = 1.761

Margin of error

E = 1.761·15/√15 = 6.82

Interval

92 ± 6.82 → [85.18, 98.82]

Answer

lower limit = 85.18
4.Confidence intervals

Answer: n = 124

Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.

Solve for n

n = (1.645·27/4)² = 123.3

Round up

A sample size is a whole number, and rounding down would make the margin too large.

n = 124

Answer

n = 124
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: t = −3.1

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Standard error

SE = 10/√25 = 10/5 = 2

Test statistic

t = (113.8 − 120)/2 = −3.1

Answer

t = −3.1
t0.025; df = 24 = 2.064

|t| > 2.064, so H₀ is rejected at the 5% level (two-sided).

6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: 1 − β = 95.1 %

Power of a test: power = 1 − β is the probability of rejecting H₀ when it is false. Find the cutoff x̄c from μ₀ and z_α, then compute the probability of landing beyond x̄c using the true mean: z = (x̄c − μ)/(σ/√n).

Critical sample mean

SE = 12/√64 = 1.5
x̄c = 80 + 1.645·1.5 = 82.47

z under the true mean

z = (82.47 − 84.95)/1.5 = −1.655

Power

power = P(Z > −1.655) = 95.1%
1 − β = 95.1%

Answer

1 − β = 95.1%
7.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: r = 0.9589

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Centred sums

Sxy = 1762 − 33·311/6 = 51.5
Sxx = 199 − 33²/6 = 17.5
Syy = 16285 − 311²/6 = 164.8

Correlation coefficient

r = 51.5/√(17.5·164.8) = 0.9589

Answer

r = 0.9589
8.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: ŷ = 24.65

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 15/5 = 3
ȳ = 109/5 = 21.8

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 10
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = −19

Regression line

b = −19/10 = −1.9
a = 21.8 − (−1.9)·3 = 27.5
ŷ = 27.5 − 1.9·x

Prediction

ŷ = 27.5 + (−1.9)·1.5 = 24.65

Answer

ŷ = 24.65
9.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ² = 15.87

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected counts

men: 120·48/160 = 36, 120·112/160 = 84
women: 40·48/160 = 12, 40·112/160 = 28

Chi-square statistic

χ² = (26 − 36)²/36 + (94 − 84)²/84 + (22 − 12)²/12 + (18 − 28)²/28
χ² = 15.87

Answer

χ² = 15.87

df = 1. At α = 0.05 the critical value is 3.841, so H₀ (independence) is rejected.

10.Chi-square tests

Answer: df = 10

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Degrees of freedom

df = (3 − 1)·(6 − 1) = 10

Answer

df = 10

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