Statistics 2: Statistical Inference: cram pack

Formula sheets, the key method steps for every topic and 10 practice problems, with full solutions at the back.

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1Formulas and methods

Normal distribution

z-score
z = (x − μ)/σ
Below x
P(X < x) = Φ(z)
Above x
P(X > x) = 1 − Φ(z)
Between
Φ(z2) − Φ(z1)
Percentile
x = μ + z·σ

Method

  1. Convert the value to a z-score: z = (x − μ)/σ.
  2. Look up Φ(z), the area to the left of z.
  3. For the area to the right use 1 − Φ(z); for an interval subtract the two left areas.
  4. For a percentile, work backwards: find z for the area, then x = μ + z·σ.

Confidence intervals

σ known
x̄ ± z·σ/√n
σ unknown
x̄ ± t·s/√n, df = n − 1
Critical z
90%: 1.645, 95%: 1.96, 99%: 2.576
Sample size
n = (z·σ/E)², rounded up

Method

  1. Decide between z (population σ known) and t (only the sample s, with n − 1 degrees of freedom).
  2. Find the critical value for the confidence level.
  3. Margin of error: E = critical value × standard deviation/√n.
  4. Interval: x̄ ± E.

Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

z-test for a mean
z = (x̄ − μ0)/(σ/√n)
t-test for a mean
t = (x̄ − μ0)/(s/√n), df = n − 1
Two-sided at 5%
reject H0 if |z| > 1.96
Confidence interval
x̄ ± z·σ/√n

Method

  1. State H₀ and H₁ and decide whether the test is one- or two-sided.
  2. Calculate the test statistic: (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n), or with s and t.
  3. Compare with the critical value, or find the p-value.
  4. Reject H₀ if the statistic is beyond the critical value (p below α), and state the conclusion in words.

Linear regression & correlation

Sums of squares
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = Σx² − (Σx)²/n, Sxy = Σxy − ΣxΣy/n
Slope
b = Sxy/Sxx
Intercept
a = ȳ − b·x̄
Correlation
r = Sxy/√(SxxSyy)
Residual
e = y − ŷ

Chi-square tests

Test statistic
χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E
Goodness of fit
E = n·p, df = k − 1 − (estimated parameters)
Independence
E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1)
Critical values (α = 0.05)
df 1: 3.841, 2: 5.991, 3: 7.815, 4: 9.488
Decision
reject H0 if χ² > χ²crit

2Practice problems

1.Normal distributionMedium
−3−2−10123zshaded area to the right of z = 0.0526

Drag z so that the shaded area under the standard normal curve, to the right of z, is 0.0526. Find z to two decimals.

A = 0.0526
z =
2.Normal distributionHard
0.03 mm0D − d?

Hole diameters D are normal with mean 25.03 mm and standard deviation 0.01 mm. Shaft diameters d are independent and normal with mean 25 mm and standard deviation 0.02 mm. A randomly chosen shaft fits when D − d > 0. Find the probability P that it fits. Round z to two decimals.

hole: μ = 25.03 mm, σ = 0.01 mmshaft: μ = 25 mm, σ = 0.02 mm
P =
3.Confidence intervalsMedium
n = 6, s = 13LU = ?x̄ = 87E95%

A sample of 6 items has mean 87 and standard deviation s = 13. The population is roughly normal. Find the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval for the mean.

n = 6x̄ = 87s = 1395%t(5) = 2.571
upper limit =
4.Confidence intervalsHard
σ = 32, n = ?x̄ − Ex̄ + Ex̄E = 399%

The population standard deviation is 32. How large a sample n do you need so that a 99% confidence interval for the mean has a margin of error of at most 3?

σ = 32E = 399%
n =
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
t −1.9901.99

A sample of 81 students has a mean score of 98.76 and a sample standard deviation of 8. Find the test statistic t for H₀: μ = 100.

μ₀ = 100x̄ = 98.76s = 8n = 81
t =
6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
z −1.64501.645

A sample of 25 measurements has mean 504.5. The population standard deviation is 15. Find the lower limit L of the 90% confidence interval for the mean.

x̄ = 504.5σ = 15n = 2590%
L =
7.Linear regression & correlationMedium
xy357460565674778xy46607080

The table gives 5 paired observations of x = hours studied and y = exam score. Their sums are given. Find Pearson's correlation coefficient r from these sums.

n = 5Σx = 25Σy = 334Σx² = 135Σy² = 22634Σxy = 1726
r =
8.Linear regression & correlationHard
xy1313415417499541158xy51030405060x = 4

The table gives 6 paired observations of x = advertising spend in k€ and y = sales in k€. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. A new observation (4, 42) is made. Find its residual e = y − ŷ.

n = 6(4, 42)
e =
9.Chi-square testsMedium
improvednot improvedTotalnew drug271340placebo5050100Total7763140

The contingency table shows observed counts. Compute the chi-square statistic χ² for the test of independence between the row and column variables. Do not use a continuity correction.

N = 1402 × 2
χ² =
10.Chi-square testsHard

A chi-square test of independence is carried out on a contingency table with 2 rows and 11 columns (not counting the totals). How many degrees of freedom df does the test have?

2 × 11
df =

3Solutions

1.Normal distribution

Answer: z = 1.62

From an area back to z: Φ(z) is the area to the left of z. For a left-tail area A, find z with Φ(z) = A in the table. A right-tail area A means Φ(z) = 1 − A. A central area A between −z and z leaves (1 − A)/2 in each tail, so Φ(z) = (1 + A)/2. For a value x, use x = μ + zσ.

Area to the left of z

Φ(z) = 1 − 0.0526 = 0.9474

Read the z-table backwards

Find 0.9474 inside the table and read off z.

z = 1.62

Answer

z = 1.62
2.Normal distribution

Answer: P = 0.9099

Sums and differences of normal variables: if X and Y are independent and normal, X + Y and X − Y are normal too. Means add or subtract: E(X ± Y) = μX ± μY. Variances always add, also for a difference: Var(X ± Y) = σX² + σY², so σ = √(σX² + σY²). Standard deviations never add directly. The total of n independent items with the same distribution has mean n·μ and standard deviation σ·√n. Then standardise as usual: z = (x − mean)/σ and read Φ(z).

Distribution of the difference

μ = 25.03 − 25 = 0.03 mm, σ = 0.02236 mm

Standardise

z = (0 − 0.03)/0.02236 = −1.34

Probability

P = 1 − Φ(−1.34) = 0.9099

Answer

P = 0.9099
3.Confidence intervals

Answer: upper limit = 100.6

Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.

Critical value

df = n − 1 = 5, t = 2.571

Margin of error

E = 2.571·13/√6 = 13.64

Interval

87 ± 13.64 → [73.36, 100.6]

Answer

upper limit = 100.6
4.Confidence intervals

Answer: n = 756

Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.

Solve for n

n = (2.576·32/3)² = 755

Round up

A sample size is a whole number, and rounding down would make the margin too large.

n = 756

Answer

n = 756
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: t = −1.395

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Standard error

SE = 8/√81 = 8/9 = 0.8889

Test statistic

t = (98.76 − 100)/0.8889 = −1.395

Answer

t = −1.395
t0.025; df = 80 = 1.99

|t| < 1.99, so H₀ is not rejected at the 5% level (two-sided).

6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: L = 499.6

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Margin of error

E = 1.645·15/√25 = 4.935

Interval limit

L = 504.5 − 4.935 = 499.6

Answer

L = 499.6
7.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: r = 0.9856

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Centred sums

Sxy = 1726 − 25·334/5 = 56
Sxx = 135 − 25²/5 = 10
Syy = 22634 − 334²/5 = 322.8

Correlation coefficient

r = 56/√(10·322.8) = 0.9856

Answer

r = 0.9856
8.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: e = 1.533

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 36/6 = 6
ȳ = 274/6 = 45.67

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 70
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 182

Regression line

b = 182/70 = 2.6
a = 45.67 − 2.6·6 = 30.07
ŷ = 30.07 + 2.6·x

Predicted value

ŷ = 30.07 + 2.6·4 = 40.47

Residual

e = 42 − 40.47 = 1.533

Answer

e = 1.533

The point lies above the line.

9.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ² = 3.535

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected counts

new drug: 40·77/140 = 22, 40·63/140 = 18
placebo: 100·77/140 = 55, 100·63/140 = 45

Chi-square statistic

χ² = (27 − 22)²/22 + (13 − 18)²/18 + (50 − 55)²/55 + (50 − 45)²/45
χ² = 3.535

Answer

χ² = 3.535

df = 1. At α = 0.05 the critical value is 3.841, so H₀ (independence) is not rejected.

10.Chi-square tests

Answer: df = 10

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Degrees of freedom

df = (2 − 1)·(11 − 1) = 10

Answer

df = 10

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