Statistics 2: Statistical Inference: cram pack

Formula sheets, the key method steps for every topic and 10 practice problems, with full solutions at the back.

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1Formulas and methods

Normal distribution

z-score
z = (x − μ)/σ
Below x
P(X < x) = Φ(z)
Above x
P(X > x) = 1 − Φ(z)
Between
Φ(z2) − Φ(z1)
Percentile
x = μ + z·σ

Method

  1. Convert the value to a z-score: z = (x − μ)/σ.
  2. Look up Φ(z), the area to the left of z.
  3. For the area to the right use 1 − Φ(z); for an interval subtract the two left areas.
  4. For a percentile, work backwards: find z for the area, then x = μ + z·σ.

Confidence intervals

σ known
x̄ ± z·σ/√n
σ unknown
x̄ ± t·s/√n, df = n − 1
Critical z
90%: 1.645, 95%: 1.96, 99%: 2.576
Sample size
n = (z·σ/E)², rounded up

Method

  1. Decide between z (population σ known) and t (only the sample s, with n − 1 degrees of freedom).
  2. Find the critical value for the confidence level.
  3. Margin of error: E = critical value × standard deviation/√n.
  4. Interval: x̄ ± E.

Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

z-test for a mean
z = (x̄ − μ0)/(σ/√n)
t-test for a mean
t = (x̄ − μ0)/(s/√n), df = n − 1
Two-sided at 5%
reject H0 if |z| > 1.96
Confidence interval
x̄ ± z·σ/√n

Method

  1. State H₀ and H₁ and decide whether the test is one- or two-sided.
  2. Calculate the test statistic: (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n), or with s and t.
  3. Compare with the critical value, or find the p-value.
  4. Reject H₀ if the statistic is beyond the critical value (p below α), and state the conclusion in words.

Linear regression & correlation

Sums of squares
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = Σx² − (Σx)²/n, Sxy = Σxy − ΣxΣy/n
Slope
b = Sxy/Sxx
Intercept
a = ȳ − b·x̄
Correlation
r = Sxy/√(SxxSyy)
Residual
e = y − ŷ

Chi-square tests

Test statistic
χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E
Goodness of fit
E = n·p, df = k − 1 − (estimated parameters)
Independence
E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1)
Critical values (α = 0.05)
df 1: 3.841, 2: 5.991, 3: 7.815, 4: 9.488
Decision
reject H0 if χ² > χ²crit

2Practice problems

1.Normal distributionMedium
−3−2−10123zshaded area to the right of z = 0.9382

Drag z so that the shaded area under the standard normal curve, to the right of z, is 0.9382. Find z to two decimals.

A = 0.9382
z =
2.Normal distributionHard
157164171178185192199cmtop 90%

The heights of adult men are normally distributed with mean 178 cm and standard deviation 7 cm. Drag the cut-off so the shaded top 90% is to the right of it. Find the cut-off x.

μ = 178 cmσ = 7 cm90%
x = cm
3.Confidence intervalsMedium
μ₁ − μ₂0L = ?Ux̄₁ − x̄₂E99%

The battery life of two phone models is compared. Model 1: 40 phones, mean 114 h, known standard deviation 11 h. Model 2: 30 phones, mean 106.5 h, known standard deviation 9 h. Find the lower limit of the 99% confidence interval for μ₁ − μ₂.

n₁ = 40x̄₁ = 114 hσ₁ = 11 hn₂ = 30x̄₂ = 106.5 hσ₂ = 9 h99%
lower limit = h
4.Confidence intervalsHard
n = 11σ = ?Us = 11.195%

The diameters of 11 machined shafts have a sample standard deviation of 11.1 µm. Assuming the diameters are normally distributed, find the lower limit σ of the 95% confidence interval for the population standard deviation. With df = 10, 2.5% of the χ² distribution lies below 3.247 and 2.5% lies above 20.483.

n = 11s = 11.1 µmχ² = 3.247, 20.483
σ = µm
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
−2.1312.131t = ?df = 15

Two teaching methods are compared. Group 1: 5 students, mean score 26, standard deviation 2.5. Group 2: 12 students, mean score 30, standard deviation 2. Assume equal population variances and use the pooled two-sample t test. Find the test statistic t for H₀: μ₁ = μ₂, taking the difference as x̄₁ − x̄₂ (group 1 minus group 2).

n₁ = 5x̄₁ = 26s₁ = 2.5n₂ = 12x̄₂ = 30s₂ = 2
t =
6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
z −1.64501.645

A sample of 81 measurements has mean 120.3. The population standard deviation is 5. Find the lower limit L of the 90% confidence interval for the mean.

x̄ = 120.3σ = 5n = 8190%
L =
7.Linear regression & correlationMedium
xy3355497579701178xy510406080

The table gives 5 paired observations of x = advertising spend in k€ and y = sales in k€. Find the coefficient of determination r² of the least-squares line.

n = 5
r² =
8.Linear regression & correlationHard
xy284156198261033xy510102030x = 7

The table gives 5 paired observations of x = load in kN and y = extension in mm. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. Predict ŷ for x = 7.

n = 5x = 7
ŷ =
9.Chi-square testsMedium
lowmediumhighTotalurban294427100rural652940Total354956140

The contingency table shows observed counts. Compute the chi-square statistic χ² for the test of independence between the row and column variables. Do not use a continuity correction.

N = 1402 × 3
χ² =
10.Chi-square testsHard
dfα = 0.05α = 0.0113.8416.63525.9919.21037.81511.34549.48813.277511.07015.086612.59216.812714.06718.475815.50720.090916.91921.6661018.30723.209

A chi-square goodness-of-fit test checks whether counts in 7 categories follow a Poisson distribution whose mean is estimated from the same data. Using the table, find the critical value χ²crit at significance level α = 0.05.

α = 0.05
χ²crit =

3Solutions

1.Normal distribution

Answer: z = −1.54

From an area back to z: Φ(z) is the area to the left of z. For a left-tail area A, find z with Φ(z) = A in the table. A right-tail area A means Φ(z) = 1 − A. A central area A between −z and z leaves (1 − A)/2 in each tail, so Φ(z) = (1 + A)/2. For a value x, use x = μ + zσ.

Area to the left of z

Φ(z) = 1 − 0.9382 = 0.0618

Read the z-table backwards

Find 0.0618 inside the table and read off z.

z = −1.54

Answer

z = −1.54
2.Normal distribution

Answer: x = 169 cm

From an area back to z: Φ(z) is the area to the left of z. For a left-tail area A, find z with Φ(z) = A in the table. A right-tail area A means Φ(z) = 1 − A. A central area A between −z and z leaves (1 − A)/2 in each tail, so Φ(z) = (1 + A)/2. For a value x, use x = μ + zσ.

Area to the left

Φ(z) = 0.1

z from the table

z ≈ −1.28

Back to the original units

x = 178 − 1.28·7 = 169 cm

Answer

x = 169 cm
3.Confidence intervals

Answer: lower limit = 1.336 h

Interval for a difference: estimate ± critical value × standard error. For two independent means with known σ: SE = √(σ₁²/n₁ + σ₂²/n₂) and z. With equal unknown variances: pooled s_p and t with n₁ + n₂ − 2 degrees of freedom. For paired data, work with the differences: d̄ ± t·s_d/√n.

Point estimate

x̄₁ − x̄₂ = 114 − 106.5 = 7.5

Standard error

SE = √(11²/40 + 9²/30) = 2.393

Margin of error

E = 2.576·2.393 = 6.164

Interval

7.5 ± 6.164 → [1.336, 13.66]

Answer

lower limit = 1.336 h

The interval does not contain 0, so the means differ significantly.

4.Confidence intervals

Answer: σ = 7.756 µm

Interval for a variance: (n − 1)s²/σ² has a χ² distribution with n − 1 degrees of freedom. The 95% interval for σ² runs from (n − 1)s² divided by the upper χ² value (2.5% above it) to (n − 1)s² divided by the lower χ² value (2.5% below it); the interval for σ is the square root of both limits. It is not symmetric around s.

Sum of squares

(n − 1)s² = 10·11.1² = 1232

Limits for σ²

1232/20.483 = 60.15
1232/3.247 = 379.5

Limit for σ

σ = √60.15 = 7.756 µm

Answer

σ = 7.756 µm

95% interval for σ: [7.756, 19.48] µm.

5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: t = −3.504

Hypothesis test: the test statistic = (estimate − value under H₀)/(standard error under H₀). The p-value is the probability, assuming H₀ is true, of a statistic at least as extreme as the one observed: the area in one tail for a one-sided H₁, twice the tail area for a two-sided H₁. Reject H₀ when p ≤ α.

Pooled variance

sp² = (4·2.5² + 11·2²)/15 = 4.6
sp = 2.145

Standard error

SE = 2.145·√(1/5 + 1/12) = 1.142

Test statistic

t = (26 − 30)/1.142 = −3.504

Answer

t = −3.504

With df = 15, the two-sided 5% critical value is 2.131; |t| is larger, so H₀ is rejected.

6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: L = 119.4

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Margin of error

E = 1.645·5/√81 = 0.9139

Interval limit

L = 120.3 − 0.9139 = 119.4

Answer

L = 119.4
7.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: r² = 0.9914

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 35/5 = 7
ȳ = 289/5 = 57.8

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 40
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 214
Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² = 1155

Coefficient of determination

r² = 214²/(40·1155) = 0.9914

Answer

r² = 0.9914

About 99.14% of the variation in y is explained by the line.

8.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: ŷ = 23.25

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 30/5 = 6
ȳ = 101/5 = 20.2

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 40
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 122

Regression line

b = 122/40 = 3.05
a = 20.2 − 3.05·6 = 1.9
ŷ = 1.9 + 3.05·x

Prediction

ŷ = 1.9 + 3.05·7 = 23.25

Answer

ŷ = 23.25
9.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ² = 25.13

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected counts

urban: 100·35/140 = 25, 100·49/140 = 35, 100·56/140 = 40
rural: 40·35/140 = 10, 40·49/140 = 14, 40·56/140 = 16

Chi-square statistic

χ² = (29 − 25)²/25 + (44 − 35)²/35 + (27 − 40)²/40 + (6 − 10)²/10 + (5 − 14)²/14 + (29 − 16)²/16
χ² = 25.13

Answer

χ² = 25.13

df = 2. At α = 0.05 the critical value is 5.991, so H₀ (independence) is rejected.

10.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ²crit = 11.07

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Degrees of freedom

df = 7 − 1 − 1 = 5

Table

χ²crit(df = 5, α = 0.05) = 11.070

Answer

χ²crit = 11.070

Reject H₀ if the computed χ² is larger than this value.

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