Statistics 2: Statistical Inference: cram pack

Formula sheets, the key method steps for every topic and 10 practice problems, with full solutions at the back.

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1Formulas and methods

Normal distribution

z-score
z = (x − μ)/σ
Below x
P(X < x) = Φ(z)
Above x
P(X > x) = 1 − Φ(z)
Between
Φ(z2) − Φ(z1)
Percentile
x = μ + z·σ

Method

  1. Convert the value to a z-score: z = (x − μ)/σ.
  2. Look up Φ(z), the area to the left of z.
  3. For the area to the right use 1 − Φ(z); for an interval subtract the two left areas.
  4. For a percentile, work backwards: find z for the area, then x = μ + z·σ.

Confidence intervals

σ known
x̄ ± z·σ/√n
σ unknown
x̄ ± t·s/√n, df = n − 1
Critical z
90%: 1.645, 95%: 1.96, 99%: 2.576
Sample size
n = (z·σ/E)², rounded up

Method

  1. Decide between z (population σ known) and t (only the sample s, with n − 1 degrees of freedom).
  2. Find the critical value for the confidence level.
  3. Margin of error: E = critical value × standard deviation/√n.
  4. Interval: x̄ ± E.

Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

z-test for a mean
z = (x̄ − μ0)/(σ/√n)
t-test for a mean
t = (x̄ − μ0)/(s/√n), df = n − 1
Two-sided at 5%
reject H0 if |z| > 1.96
Confidence interval
x̄ ± z·σ/√n

Method

  1. State H₀ and H₁ and decide whether the test is one- or two-sided.
  2. Calculate the test statistic: (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n), or with s and t.
  3. Compare with the critical value, or find the p-value.
  4. Reject H₀ if the statistic is beyond the critical value (p below α), and state the conclusion in words.

Linear regression & correlation

Sums of squares
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = Σx² − (Σx)²/n, Sxy = Σxy − ΣxΣy/n
Slope
b = Sxy/Sxx
Intercept
a = ȳ − b·x̄
Correlation
r = Sxy/√(SxxSyy)
Residual
e = y − ŷ

Chi-square tests

Test statistic
χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E
Goodness of fit
E = n·p, df = k − 1 − (estimated parameters)
Independence
E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1)
Critical values (α = 0.05)
df 1: 3.841, 2: 5.991, 3: 7.815, 4: 9.488
Decision
reject H0 if χ² > χ²crit

2Practice problems

1.Normal distributionMedium
−3−2−10123zshaded area between −z and z = 0.9566

Drag z so that the shaded area between −z and z under the standard normal curve is 0.9566. Find z to two decimals.

A = 0.9566
z =
2.Normal distributionHard
μ = 500x = ?97.5%

The battery lifetimes are normally distributed with mean 500 h and standard deviation 40 h. Find the value x below which 97.5% of them lie (the 97.5th percentile).

μ = 500σ = 40P = 97.5%
x = h
3.Confidence intervalsMedium
μ₁ − μ₂0LU = ?x̄₁ − x̄₂E90%

The battery life of two phone models is compared. Model 1: 50 phones, mean 58 h, known standard deviation 17 h. Model 2: 50 phones, mean 46 h, known standard deviation 18 h. Find the upper limit of the 90% confidence interval for μ₁ − μ₂.

n₁ = 50x̄₁ = 58 hσ₁ = 17 hn₂ = 50x̄₂ = 46 hσ₂ = 18 h90%
upper limit = h
4.Confidence intervalsHard
n = 20σ = ?Us = 4.395%

The diameters of 20 machined shafts have a sample standard deviation of 4.3 µm. Assuming the diameters are normally distributed, find the lower limit σ of the 95% confidence interval for the population standard deviation. With df = 19, 2.5% of the χ² distribution lies below 8.907 and 2.5% lies above 32.852.

n = 20s = 4.3 µmχ² = 8.907, 32.852
σ = µm
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
−1.961.96z = ?

Two production lines make the same part. Line 1: a sample of 80 parts has mean length 103.5 mm, and the line's known standard deviation is 4 mm. Line 2: a sample of 80 parts has mean 105 mm, known standard deviation 6 mm. Find the test statistic z for H₀: μ₁ = μ₂, taking the difference as x̄₁ − x̄₂ (line 1 minus line 2).

n₁ = 80x̄₁ = 103.5 mmσ₁ = 4 mmn₂ = 80x̄₂ = 105 mmσ₂ = 6 mm
z =
6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
z −1.9601.96

A sample of 36 measurements has mean 118.4. The population standard deviation is 5. Find the lower limit L of the 95% confidence interval for the mean.

x̄ = 118.4σ = 5n = 3695%
L =
7.Linear regression & correlationMedium
xy338438544649752xy46404550

The table gives 5 paired observations of x = advertising spend in k€ and y = sales in k€. Their sums are given. Find Pearson's correlation coefficient r from these sums.

n = 5Σx = 25Σy = 221Σx² = 135Σy² = 9929Σxy = 1144
r =
8.Linear regression & correlationHard
xy125221319418512xy24152025ŷ = 20

The table gives 5 paired observations of x = car age in years and y = price in k€. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. For which value x does the line predict ŷ = 20?

n = 5ŷ = 20
x =
9.Chi-square testsMedium
busbikecarTotalstudents3815760staff422533100Total804040160

The contingency table shows observed counts. Compute the chi-square statistic χ² for the test of independence between the row and column variables. Do not use a continuity correction.

N = 1602 × 3
χ² =
10.Chi-square testsHard

A chi-square test of independence is carried out on a contingency table with 2 rows and 6 columns (not counting the totals). How many degrees of freedom df does the test have?

2 × 6
df =

3Solutions

1.Normal distribution

Answer: z = 2.02

From an area back to z: Φ(z) is the area to the left of z. For a left-tail area A, find z with Φ(z) = A in the table. A right-tail area A means Φ(z) = 1 − A. A central area A between −z and z leaves (1 − A)/2 in each tail, so Φ(z) = (1 + A)/2. For a value x, use x = μ + zσ.

Area to the left of z

Φ(z) = (1 + 0.9566)/2 = 0.9783

Read the z-table backwards

Find 0.9783 inside the table and read off z.

z = 2.02

Answer

z = 2.02
2.Normal distribution

Answer: x = 578.4 h

Normal distribution: convert a value x to a z-score, z = (x − μ)/σ, which counts standard deviations from the mean. A z-table (or Φ(z)) gives the area to the left of z, which is P(X < x). The area to the right is 1 − Φ(z), and the area between two values is the difference of their two areas.

z for the percentile

Φ(z) = 0.975 → z = 1.96

Back to x

x = 500 + 1.96·40 = 578.4 h

Answer

x = 578.4 h
3.Confidence intervals

Answer: upper limit = 17.76 h

Interval for a difference: estimate ± critical value × standard error. For two independent means with known σ: SE = √(σ₁²/n₁ + σ₂²/n₂) and z. With equal unknown variances: pooled s_p and t with n₁ + n₂ − 2 degrees of freedom. For paired data, work with the differences: d̄ ± t·s_d/√n.

Point estimate

x̄₁ − x̄₂ = 58 − 46 = 12

Standard error

SE = √(17²/50 + 18²/50) = 3.501

Margin of error

E = 1.645·3.501 = 5.76

Interval

12 ± 5.76 → [6.24, 17.76]

Answer

upper limit = 17.76 h

The interval does not contain 0, so the means differ significantly.

4.Confidence intervals

Answer: σ = 3.27 µm

Interval for a variance: (n − 1)s²/σ² has a χ² distribution with n − 1 degrees of freedom. The 95% interval for σ² runs from (n − 1)s² divided by the upper χ² value (2.5% above it) to (n − 1)s² divided by the lower χ² value (2.5% below it); the interval for σ is the square root of both limits. It is not symmetric around s.

Sum of squares

(n − 1)s² = 19·4.3² = 351.3

Limits for σ²

351.3/32.852 = 10.69
351.3/8.907 = 39.44

Limit for σ

σ = √10.69 = 3.27 µm

Answer

σ = 3.27 µm

95% interval for σ: [3.27, 6.28] µm.

5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: z = −1.861

Hypothesis test: the test statistic = (estimate − value under H₀)/(standard error under H₀). The p-value is the probability, assuming H₀ is true, of a statistic at least as extreme as the one observed: the area in one tail for a one-sided H₁, twice the tail area for a two-sided H₁. Reject H₀ when p ≤ α.

Standard error of the difference

SE = √(4²/80 + 6²/80) = √0.65 = 0.8062

Test statistic

z = (103.5 − 105)/0.8062 = −1.861

Answer

z = −1.861

|z| < 1.96, so H₀ is not rejected at the 5% level (two-sided).

6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: L = 116.8

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Margin of error

E = 1.96·5/√36 = 1.633

Interval limit

L = 118.4 − 1.633 = 116.8

Answer

L = 116.8
7.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: r = 0.9726

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Centred sums

Sxy = 1144 − 25·221/5 = 39
Sxx = 135 − 25²/5 = 10
Syy = 9929 − 221²/5 = 160.8

Correlation coefficient

r = 39/√(10·160.8) = 0.9726

Answer

r = 0.9726
8.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: x = 2.655

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 15/5 = 3
ȳ = 95/5 = 19

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 10
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = −29

Regression line

b = −29/10 = −2.9
a = 19 − (−2.9)·3 = 27.7
ŷ = 27.7 − 2.9·x

Solve for x

x = (20 − 27.7)/(−2.9) = 2.655

Answer

x = 2.655
9.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ² = 10.24

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected counts

students: 60·80/160 = 30, 60·40/160 = 15, 60·40/160 = 15
staff: 100·80/160 = 50, 100·40/160 = 25, 100·40/160 = 25

Chi-square statistic

χ² = (38 − 30)²/30 + (15 − 15)²/15 + (7 − 15)²/15 + (42 − 50)²/50 + (25 − 25)²/25 + (33 − 25)²/25
χ² = 10.24

Answer

χ² = 10.24

df = 2. At α = 0.05 the critical value is 5.991, so H₀ (independence) is rejected.

10.Chi-square tests

Answer: df = 5

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Degrees of freedom

df = (2 − 1)·(6 − 1) = 5

Answer

df = 5

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