Statistics 2: Statistical Inference: cram pack

Formula sheets, the key method steps for every topic and 10 practice problems, with full solutions at the back.

New problemsBack to the course

In the print window, choose “Save as PDF” to keep a copy on your device.

1Formulas and methods

Normal distribution

z-score
z = (x − μ)/σ
Below x
P(X < x) = Φ(z)
Above x
P(X > x) = 1 − Φ(z)
Between
Φ(z2) − Φ(z1)
Percentile
x = μ + z·σ

Method

  1. Convert the value to a z-score: z = (x − μ)/σ.
  2. Look up Φ(z), the area to the left of z.
  3. For the area to the right use 1 − Φ(z); for an interval subtract the two left areas.
  4. For a percentile, work backwards: find z for the area, then x = μ + z·σ.

Confidence intervals

σ known
x̄ ± z·σ/√n
σ unknown
x̄ ± t·s/√n, df = n − 1
Critical z
90%: 1.645, 95%: 1.96, 99%: 2.576
Sample size
n = (z·σ/E)², rounded up

Method

  1. Decide between z (population σ known) and t (only the sample s, with n − 1 degrees of freedom).
  2. Find the critical value for the confidence level.
  3. Margin of error: E = critical value × standard deviation/√n.
  4. Interval: x̄ ± E.

Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

z-test for a mean
z = (x̄ − μ0)/(σ/√n)
t-test for a mean
t = (x̄ − μ0)/(s/√n), df = n − 1
Two-sided at 5%
reject H0 if |z| > 1.96
Confidence interval
x̄ ± z·σ/√n

Method

  1. State H₀ and H₁ and decide whether the test is one- or two-sided.
  2. Calculate the test statistic: (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n), or with s and t.
  3. Compare with the critical value, or find the p-value.
  4. Reject H₀ if the statistic is beyond the critical value (p below α), and state the conclusion in words.

Linear regression & correlation

Sums of squares
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = Σx² − (Σx)²/n, Sxy = Σxy − ΣxΣy/n
Slope
b = Sxy/Sxx
Intercept
a = ȳ − b·x̄
Correlation
r = Sxy/√(SxxSyy)
Residual
e = y − ŷ

Chi-square tests

Test statistic
χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E
Goodness of fit
E = n·p, df = k − 1 − (estimated parameters)
Independence
E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1)
Critical values (α = 0.05)
df 1: 3.841, 2: 5.991, 3: 7.815, 4: 9.488
Decision
reject H0 if χ² > χ²crit

2Practice problems

1.Normal distributionMedium
−3−2−10123zshaded area to the right of z = 0.2946

Drag z so that the shaded area under the standard normal curve, to the right of z, is 0.2946. Find z to two decimals.

A = 0.2946
z =
2.Normal distributionHard
μ = 178x = ?75%

The heights of adult men are normally distributed with mean 178 cm and standard deviation 7 cm. Find the value x below which 75% of them lie (the 75th percentile).

μ = 178σ = 7P = 75%
x = cm
3.Confidence intervalsMedium
μ₁ − μ₂0L = ?Ux̄₁ − x̄₂E99%

The battery life of two phone models is compared. Model 1: 50 phones, mean 81.5 h, known standard deviation 10 h. Model 2: 80 phones, mean 95.5 h, known standard deviation 4 h. Find the lower limit of the 99% confidence interval for μ₁ − μ₂.

n₁ = 50x̄₁ = 81.5 hσ₁ = 10 hn₂ = 80x̄₂ = 95.5 hσ₂ = 4 h99%
lower limit = h
4.Confidence intervalsHard
p ≈ 0.15, n = ?p̂ − Ep̂ + Ep̂E = 0.0399%

A pilot study suggests that about 0.15 of products are defective. How many products n must be inspected so that a 99% confidence interval for the proportion has a margin of error of at most 0.03?

p ≈ 0.15E = 0.0399%
n =
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
t −2.0302.03

A sample of 36 students has a mean score of 44.83 and a sample standard deviation of 10. Find the test statistic t for H₀: μ = 50.

μ₀ = 50x̄ = 44.83s = 10n = 36
t =
6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
z −1.64501.645

A sample of 100 measurements has mean 103.6. The population standard deviation is 20. Find the lower limit L of the 90% confidence interval for the mean.

x̄ = 103.6σ = 20n = 10090%
L =
7.Linear regression & correlationMedium
xy125224321422520617xy2462025

The table gives 6 paired observations of x = car age in years and y = price in k€. Find the coefficient of determination r² of the least-squares line.

n = 6
r² =
8.Linear regression & correlationHard
xy18692189241052711530137xy202530100x = 19.5

The table gives 5 paired observations of x = temperature in °C and y = ice creams sold. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. A new observation (19.5, 76) is made. Find its residual e = y − ŷ.

n = 5(19.5, 76)
e =
9.Chi-square testsMedium
yesnoTotalmen221840women233760Total4555100

The contingency table shows observed counts. Compute the chi-square statistic χ² for the test of independence between the row and column variables. Do not use a continuity correction.

N = 1002 × 2
χ² =
10.Chi-square testsHard

A chi-square test of independence is carried out on a contingency table with 2 rows and 4 columns (not counting the totals). How many degrees of freedom df does the test have?

2 × 4
df =

3Solutions

1.Normal distribution

Answer: z = 0.54

From an area back to z: Φ(z) is the area to the left of z. For a left-tail area A, find z with Φ(z) = A in the table. A right-tail area A means Φ(z) = 1 − A. A central area A between −z and z leaves (1 − A)/2 in each tail, so Φ(z) = (1 + A)/2. For a value x, use x = μ + zσ.

Area to the left of z

Φ(z) = 1 − 0.2946 = 0.7054

Read the z-table backwards

Find 0.7054 inside the table and read off z.

z = 0.54

Answer

z = 0.54
2.Normal distribution

Answer: x = 182.7 cm

Normal distribution: convert a value x to a z-score, z = (x − μ)/σ, which counts standard deviations from the mean. A z-table (or Φ(z)) gives the area to the left of z, which is P(X < x). The area to the right is 1 − Φ(z), and the area between two values is the difference of their two areas.

z for the percentile

Φ(z) = 0.75 → z = 0.6745

Back to x

x = 178 + 0.6745·7 = 182.72 cm

Answer

x = 182.72 cm
3.Confidence intervals

Answer: lower limit = −17.82 h

Interval for a difference: estimate ± critical value × standard error. For two independent means with known σ: SE = √(σ₁²/n₁ + σ₂²/n₂) and z. With equal unknown variances: pooled s_p and t with n₁ + n₂ − 2 degrees of freedom. For paired data, work with the differences: d̄ ± t·s_d/√n.

Point estimate

x̄₁ − x̄₂ = 81.5 − 95.5 = −14

Standard error

SE = √(10²/50 + 4²/80) = 1.483

Margin of error

E = 2.576·1.483 = 3.821

Interval

−14 ± 3.821 → [−17.82, −10.18]

Answer

lower limit = −17.82 h

The interval does not contain 0, so the means differ significantly.

4.Confidence intervals

Answer: n = 941

Confidence interval for a proportion: p̂ ± z·√(p̂(1 − p̂)/n), where p̂ = x/n. To reach a margin E you need n ≥ z²·p(1 − p)/E², rounded up; without a prior estimate use p = 0.5, which gives the largest n.

Solve for n

n = 2.576²·0.15·0.85/0.03² = 940.1

Round up

n = 941

Answer

n = 941
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: t = −3.102

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Standard error

SE = 10/√36 = 10/6 = 1.667

Test statistic

t = (44.83 − 50)/1.667 = −3.102

Answer

t = −3.102
t0.025; df = 35 = 2.03

|t| > 2.03, so H₀ is rejected at the 5% level (two-sided).

6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: L = 100.3

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Margin of error

E = 1.645·20/√100 = 3.29

Interval limit

L = 103.6 − 3.29 = 100.3

Answer

L = 100.3
7.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: r² = 0.8954

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 21/6 = 3.5
ȳ = 129/6 = 21.5

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 17.5
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = −25.5
Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² = 41.5

Coefficient of determination

r² = −25.5²/(17.5·41.5) = 0.8954

Answer

r² = 0.8954

About 89.54% of the variation in y is explained by the line.

8.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: e = −2.7

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 120/5 = 24
ȳ = 515/5 = 103

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 90
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 486

Regression line

b = 486/90 = 5.4
a = 103 − 5.4·24 = −26.6
ŷ = −26.6 + 5.4·x

Predicted value

ŷ = −26.6 + 5.4·19.5 = 78.7

Residual

e = 76 − 78.7 = −2.7

Answer

e = −2.7

The point lies below the line.

9.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ² = 2.694

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected counts

men: 40·45/100 = 18, 40·55/100 = 22
women: 60·45/100 = 27, 60·55/100 = 33

Chi-square statistic

χ² = (22 − 18)²/18 + (18 − 22)²/22 + (23 − 27)²/27 + (37 − 33)²/33
χ² = 2.694

Answer

χ² = 2.694

df = 1. At α = 0.05 the critical value is 3.841, so H₀ (independence) is not rejected.

10.Chi-square tests

Answer: df = 3

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Degrees of freedom

df = (2 − 1)·(4 − 1) = 3

Answer

df = 3

ExamProblems · examproblems.com/courses/statistics-2-inference