Statistics 2: Statistical Inference: cram pack

Formula sheets, the key method steps for every topic and 10 practice problems, with full solutions at the back.

New problemsBack to the course

In the print window, choose “Save as PDF” to keep a copy on your device.

1Formulas and methods

Normal distribution

z-score
z = (x − μ)/σ
Below x
P(X < x) = Φ(z)
Above x
P(X > x) = 1 − Φ(z)
Between
Φ(z2) − Φ(z1)
Percentile
x = μ + z·σ

Method

  1. Convert the value to a z-score: z = (x − μ)/σ.
  2. Look up Φ(z), the area to the left of z.
  3. For the area to the right use 1 − Φ(z); for an interval subtract the two left areas.
  4. For a percentile, work backwards: find z for the area, then x = μ + z·σ.

Confidence intervals

σ known
x̄ ± z·σ/√n
σ unknown
x̄ ± t·s/√n, df = n − 1
Critical z
90%: 1.645, 95%: 1.96, 99%: 2.576
Sample size
n = (z·σ/E)², rounded up

Method

  1. Decide between z (population σ known) and t (only the sample s, with n − 1 degrees of freedom).
  2. Find the critical value for the confidence level.
  3. Margin of error: E = critical value × standard deviation/√n.
  4. Interval: x̄ ± E.

Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

z-test for a mean
z = (x̄ − μ0)/(σ/√n)
t-test for a mean
t = (x̄ − μ0)/(s/√n), df = n − 1
Two-sided at 5%
reject H0 if |z| > 1.96
Confidence interval
x̄ ± z·σ/√n

Method

  1. State H₀ and H₁ and decide whether the test is one- or two-sided.
  2. Calculate the test statistic: (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n), or with s and t.
  3. Compare with the critical value, or find the p-value.
  4. Reject H₀ if the statistic is beyond the critical value (p below α), and state the conclusion in words.

Linear regression & correlation

Sums of squares
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = Σx² − (Σx)²/n, Sxy = Σxy − ΣxΣy/n
Slope
b = Sxy/Sxx
Intercept
a = ȳ − b·x̄
Correlation
r = Sxy/√(SxxSyy)
Residual
e = y − ŷ

Chi-square tests

Test statistic
χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E
Goodness of fit
E = n·p, df = k − 1 − (estimated parameters)
Independence
E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1)
Critical values (α = 0.05)
df 1: 3.841, 2: 5.991, 3: 7.815, 4: 9.488
Decision
reject H0 if χ² > χ²crit

2Practice problems

1.Normal distributionMedium
680 kg629.1 kgT = X₁ + … + X₈?

The masses of passengers with luggage are independent and normal with mean 85 kg and standard deviation 12 kg. Find the probability P that the total mass of 8 of them is below 629.1 kg. Round z to two decimals.

μ = 85 kgσ = 12 kgn = 8< 629.1 kg
P =
2.Normal distributionHard
μ = 65x = ?99%

The exam scores are normally distributed with mean 65 points and standard deviation 10 points. Find the value x below which 99% of them lie (the 99th percentile).

μ = 65σ = 10P = 99%
x = points
3.Confidence intervalsMedium
n = 12, sd​ = 1.50LUd̄ = 7.1E = ?99%

The blood pressure of 12 patients is measured before and after a treatment. The differences d = before − after (mmHg) have mean 7.1 and standard deviation 1.5. Find the margin of error E of the 99% confidence interval for the mean difference.

n = 12d̄ = 7.1sd = 1.599%t(11) = 3.106
E = mmHg
4.Confidence intervalsHard
p = 0.5, n = ?p̂ − Ep̂ + Ep̂E = 0.02595%

Nothing is known in advance about the proportion of defective products. How many products n must be inspected so that a 95% confidence interval for the proportion has a margin of error of at most 0.025?

p = 0.5E = 0.02595%
n =
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
t −1.9901.99

A sample of 81 students has a mean score of 501.3 and a sample standard deviation of 5. Find the test statistic t for H₀: μ = 500.

μ₀ = 500x̄ = 501.3s = 5n = 81
t =
6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
z −1.9601.96

A sample of 49 measurements has mean 78.4. The population standard deviation is 15. Find the upper limit U of the 95% confidence interval for the mean.

x̄ = 78.4σ = 15n = 4995%
U =
7.Linear regression & correlationMedium
xy34254675396511741376xy510406080

The table gives 6 paired observations of x = advertising spend in k€ and y = sales in k€. Their sums are given. Find Pearson's correlation coefficient r from these sums.

n = 6Σx = 48Σy = 356Σx² = 454Σy² = 22166Σxy = 3114
r =
8.Linear regression & correlationHard
xy356458557663768xy466065x = 5.5

The table gives 5 paired observations of x = hours studied and y = exam score. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. Predict ŷ for x = 5.5.

n = 5x = 5.5
ŷ =
9.Chi-square testsMedium
no defectminormajorTotalday shift1491740night shift2611340Total40202080

The contingency table shows observed counts. Compute the chi-square statistic χ² for the test of independence between the row and column variables. Do not use a continuity correction.

N = 802 × 3
χ² =
10.Chi-square testsHard

A chi-square goodness-of-fit test checks whether counts in 5 categories follow a Poisson distribution whose mean is estimated from the same data. How many degrees of freedom df does the test have?

k = 5
df =

3Solutions

1.Normal distribution

Answer: P = 0.06681

Sums and differences of normal variables: if X and Y are independent and normal, X + Y and X − Y are normal too. Means add or subtract: E(X ± Y) = μX ± μY. Variances always add, also for a difference: Var(X ± Y) = σX² + σY², so σ = √(σX² + σY²). Standard deviations never add directly. The total of n independent items with the same distribution has mean n·μ and standard deviation σ·√n. Then standardise as usual: z = (x − mean)/σ and read Φ(z).

Distribution of the total

μT = 680 kg, σT = 12·√8 = 33.94 kg

Standardise

z = (629.1 − 680)/33.94 = −1.5

Probability

P = Φ(−1.5) = 0.06681

Answer

P = 0.06681
2.Normal distribution

Answer: x = 88.26 points

Normal distribution: convert a value x to a z-score, z = (x − μ)/σ, which counts standard deviations from the mean. A z-table (or Φ(z)) gives the area to the left of z, which is P(X < x). The area to the right is 1 − Φ(z), and the area between two values is the difference of their two areas.

z for the percentile

Φ(z) = 0.99 → z = 2.326

Back to x

x = 65 + 2.326·10 = 88.26 points

Answer

x = 88.26 points
3.Confidence intervals

Answer: E = 1.345 mmHg

Interval for a difference: estimate ± critical value × standard error. For two independent means with known σ: SE = √(σ₁²/n₁ + σ₂²/n₂) and z. With equal unknown variances: pooled s_p and t with n₁ + n₂ − 2 degrees of freedom. For paired data, work with the differences: d̄ ± t·s_d/√n.

Critical value

df = 11, t = 3.106

Margin of error

E = 3.106·1.5/√12 = 1.345

Answer

E = 1.345 mmHg
4.Confidence intervals

Answer: n = 1537

Confidence interval for a proportion: p̂ ± z·√(p̂(1 − p̂)/n), where p̂ = x/n. To reach a margin E you need n ≥ z²·p(1 − p)/E², rounded up; without a prior estimate use p = 0.5, which gives the largest n.

Solve for n

n = 1.96²·0.5·0.5/0.025² = 1537

Round up

n = 1537

Answer

n = 1537
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: t = 2.34

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Standard error

SE = 5/√81 = 5/9 = 0.5556

Test statistic

t = (501.3 − 500)/0.5556 = 2.34

Answer

t = 2.34
t0.025; df = 80 = 1.99

|t| > 1.99, so H₀ is rejected at the 5% level (two-sided).

6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: U = 82.6

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Margin of error

E = 1.96·15/√49 = 4.2

Interval limit

U = 78.4 + 4.2 = 82.6

Answer

U = 82.6
7.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: r = 0.9843

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Centred sums

Sxy = 3114 − 48·356/6 = 266
Sxx = 454 − 48²/6 = 70
Syy = 22166 − 356²/6 = 1043

Correlation coefficient

r = 266/√(70·1043) = 0.9843

Answer

r = 0.9843
8.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: ŷ = 61.85

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 25/5 = 5
ȳ = 302/5 = 60.4

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 10
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 29

Regression line

b = 29/10 = 2.9
a = 60.4 − 2.9·5 = 45.9
ŷ = 45.9 + 2.9·x

Prediction

ŷ = 45.9 + 2.9·5.5 = 61.85

Answer

ŷ = 61.85
9.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ² = 13.6

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected counts

day shift: 40·40/80 = 20, 40·20/80 = 10, 40·20/80 = 10
night shift: 40·40/80 = 20, 40·20/80 = 10, 40·20/80 = 10

Chi-square statistic

χ² = (14 − 20)²/20 + (9 − 10)²/10 + (17 − 10)²/10 + (26 − 20)²/20 + (11 − 10)²/10 + (3 − 10)²/10
χ² = 13.6

Answer

χ² = 13.6

df = 2. At α = 0.05 the critical value is 5.991, so H₀ (independence) is rejected.

10.Chi-square tests

Answer: df = 3

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Degrees of freedom

df = 5 − 1 − 1 = 3

Answer

df = 3

ExamProblems · examproblems.com/courses/statistics-2-inference