Statistics 2: Statistical Inference: cram pack

Formula sheets, the key method steps for every topic and 10 practice problems, with full solutions at the back.

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1Formulas and methods

Normal distribution

z-score
z = (x − μ)/σ
Below x
P(X < x) = Φ(z)
Above x
P(X > x) = 1 − Φ(z)
Between
Φ(z2) − Φ(z1)
Percentile
x = μ + z·σ

Method

  1. Convert the value to a z-score: z = (x − μ)/σ.
  2. Look up Φ(z), the area to the left of z.
  3. For the area to the right use 1 − Φ(z); for an interval subtract the two left areas.
  4. For a percentile, work backwards: find z for the area, then x = μ + z·σ.

Confidence intervals

σ known
x̄ ± z·σ/√n
σ unknown
x̄ ± t·s/√n, df = n − 1
Critical z
90%: 1.645, 95%: 1.96, 99%: 2.576
Sample size
n = (z·σ/E)², rounded up

Method

  1. Decide between z (population σ known) and t (only the sample s, with n − 1 degrees of freedom).
  2. Find the critical value for the confidence level.
  3. Margin of error: E = critical value × standard deviation/√n.
  4. Interval: x̄ ± E.

Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

z-test for a mean
z = (x̄ − μ0)/(σ/√n)
t-test for a mean
t = (x̄ − μ0)/(s/√n), df = n − 1
Two-sided at 5%
reject H0 if |z| > 1.96
Confidence interval
x̄ ± z·σ/√n

Method

  1. State H₀ and H₁ and decide whether the test is one- or two-sided.
  2. Calculate the test statistic: (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n), or with s and t.
  3. Compare with the critical value, or find the p-value.
  4. Reject H₀ if the statistic is beyond the critical value (p below α), and state the conclusion in words.

Linear regression & correlation

Sums of squares
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = Σx² − (Σx)²/n, Sxy = Σxy − ΣxΣy/n
Slope
b = Sxy/Sxx
Intercept
a = ȳ − b·x̄
Correlation
r = Sxy/√(SxxSyy)
Residual
e = y − ŷ

Chi-square tests

Test statistic
χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E
Goodness of fit
E = n·p, df = k − 1 − (estimated parameters)
Independence
E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1)
Critical values (α = 0.05)
df 1: 3.841, 2: 5.991, 3: 7.815, 4: 9.488
Decision
reject H0 if χ² > χ²crit

2Practice problems

1.Normal distributionMedium
−3−2−10123zshaded area between −z and z = 0.8501

Drag z so that the shaded area between −z and z under the standard normal curve is 0.8501. Find z to two decimals.

A = 0.8501
z =
2.Normal distributionHard
μ = 250x = ?10%

The bag weights are normally distributed with mean 250 g and standard deviation 5 g. Find the value x below which 10% of them lie (the 10th percentile).

μ = 250σ = 5P = 10%
x = g
3.Confidence intervalsMedium
n = 9, s = 4LU = ?x̄ = 31E95%

A sample of 9 items has mean 31 and standard deviation s = 4. The population is roughly normal. Find the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval for the mean.

n = 9x̄ = 31s = 495%t(8) = 2.306
upper limit =
4.Confidence intervalsHard
n = 20Lσ = ?s = 6.295%

The diameters of 20 machined shafts have a sample standard deviation of 6.2 µm. Assuming the diameters are normally distributed, find the upper limit σ of the 95% confidence interval for the population standard deviation. With df = 19, 2.5% of the χ² distribution lies below 8.907 and 2.5% lies above 32.852.

n = 20s = 6.2 µmχ² = 8.907, 32.852
σ = µm
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
−2.5712.571t = ?df = 5

6 employees take a typing test before and after a training course. For each person the difference d = after − before (words per minute) is recorded. The mean difference is 2.65 and the standard deviation of the differences is 1.8. Find the paired test statistic t for H₀: μd = 0.

n = 6d̄ = 2.65sd = 1.8
t =
6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
z −2.57602.576

A sample of 81 measurements has mean 117.9. The population standard deviation is 8. Find the upper limit U of the 99% confidence interval for the mean.

x̄ = 117.9σ = 8n = 8199%
U =
7.Linear regression & correlationMedium
xy186220702279249826103xy20256080100

The table gives 5 paired observations of x = temperature in °C and y = ice creams sold. Their sums are given. Find Pearson's correlation coefficient r from these sums.

n = 5Σx = 110Σy = 412Σx² = 2460Σy² = 35198Σxy = 9284
r =
8.Linear regression & correlationHard
xy143356574782910111110xy51050100x = 6

The table gives 6 paired observations of x = hours studied and y = exam score. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. Predict ŷ for x = 6.

n = 6x = 6
ŷ =
9.Chi-square testsMedium
busbikecarTotalstudents413044115staff448860Total853852175

The contingency table shows observed counts. For a chi-square test of independence, find the expected count E for the cell “students, bike”.

row total = 115column total = 38N = 175
E =
10.Chi-square testsHard
passfailTotalplant A281240plant B602080plant C621880Total15050200dfα = 0.05α = 0.0113.8416.63525.9919.21037.81511.34549.48813.277511.07015.086612.59216.812714.06718.475815.50720.090916.91921.6661018.30723.209

The table shows observed counts. Test at α = 0.05 whether the two variables are independent (no continuity correction). Compute the test statistic χ², then compare it with the critical value from the table.

N = 2003 × 2α = 0.05
χ² =

3Solutions

1.Normal distribution

Answer: z = 1.44

From an area back to z: Φ(z) is the area to the left of z. For a left-tail area A, find z with Φ(z) = A in the table. A right-tail area A means Φ(z) = 1 − A. A central area A between −z and z leaves (1 − A)/2 in each tail, so Φ(z) = (1 + A)/2. For a value x, use x = μ + zσ.

Area to the left of z

Φ(z) = (1 + 0.8501)/2 = 0.9251

Read the z-table backwards

Find 0.9251 inside the table and read off z.

z = 1.44

Answer

z = 1.44
2.Normal distribution

Answer: x = 243.6 g

Normal distribution: convert a value x to a z-score, z = (x − μ)/σ, which counts standard deviations from the mean. A z-table (or Φ(z)) gives the area to the left of z, which is P(X < x). The area to the right is 1 − Φ(z), and the area between two values is the difference of their two areas.

z for the percentile

Φ(z) = 0.1 → z = −1.282

Back to x

x = 250 + −1.282·5 = 243.59 g

Answer

x = 243.59 g
3.Confidence intervals

Answer: upper limit = 34.07

Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.

Critical value

df = n − 1 = 8, t = 2.306

Margin of error

E = 2.306·4/√9 = 3.075

Interval

31 ± 3.075 → [27.93, 34.07]

Answer

upper limit = 34.07
4.Confidence intervals

Answer: σ = 9.055 µm

Interval for a variance: (n − 1)s²/σ² has a χ² distribution with n − 1 degrees of freedom. The 95% interval for σ² runs from (n − 1)s² divided by the upper χ² value (2.5% above it) to (n − 1)s² divided by the lower χ² value (2.5% below it); the interval for σ is the square root of both limits. It is not symmetric around s.

Sum of squares

(n − 1)s² = 19·6.2² = 730.4

Limits for σ²

730.4/32.852 = 22.23
730.4/8.907 = 82

Limit for σ

σ = √82 = 9.055 µm

Answer

σ = 9.055 µm

95% interval for σ: [4.715, 9.055] µm.

5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: t = 3.606

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Standard error of the mean difference

SE = 1.8/√6 = 0.7348

Test statistic

t = 2.65/0.7348 = 3.606

Answer

t = 3.606

With df = 5, the two-sided 5% critical value is 2.571; |t| is larger, so H₀ is rejected.

6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: U = 120.2

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Margin of error

E = 2.576·8/√81 = 2.29

Interval limit

U = 117.9 + 2.29 = 120.2

Answer

U = 120.2
7.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: r = 0.9842

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Centred sums

Sxy = 9284 − 110·412/5 = 220
Sxx = 2460 − 110²/5 = 40
Syy = 35198 − 412²/5 = 1249

Correlation coefficient

r = 220/√(40·1249) = 0.9842

Answer

r = 0.9842
8.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: ŷ = 77.67

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 36/6 = 6
ȳ = 466/6 = 77.67

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 70
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 478

Regression line

b = 478/70 = 6.829
a = 77.67 − 6.829·6 = 36.7
ŷ = 36.7 + 6.829·x

Prediction

ŷ = 36.7 + 6.829·6 = 77.67

Answer

ŷ = 77.67
9.Chi-square tests

Answer: E = 24.97

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected count

E = 115·38/175 = 24.97

Answer

E = 24.97
10.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ² = 0.8

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected counts

plant A: 30, 10
plant B: 60, 20
plant C: 60, 20

Chi-square statistic

χ² = (28 − 30)²/30 + (12 − 10)²/10 + (60 − 60)²/60 + (20 − 20)²/20 + (62 − 60)²/60 + (18 − 20)²/20
χ² = 0.8

Decision

df = 2, χ²crit = 5.991
0.8 < 5.991

Answer

χ² = 0.8

χ² is below the critical value, so H₀ is not rejected: there is no significant evidence of a relationship.

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