Statistics 2: Statistical Inference: cram pack

Formula sheets, the key method steps for every topic and 10 practice problems, with full solutions at the back.

New problemsBack to the course

In the print window, choose “Save as PDF” to keep a copy on your device.

1Formulas and methods

Normal distribution

z-score
z = (x − μ)/σ
Below x
P(X < x) = Φ(z)
Above x
P(X > x) = 1 − Φ(z)
Between
Φ(z2) − Φ(z1)
Percentile
x = μ + z·σ

Method

  1. Convert the value to a z-score: z = (x − μ)/σ.
  2. Look up Φ(z), the area to the left of z.
  3. For the area to the right use 1 − Φ(z); for an interval subtract the two left areas.
  4. For a percentile, work backwards: find z for the area, then x = μ + z·σ.

Confidence intervals

σ known
x̄ ± z·σ/√n
σ unknown
x̄ ± t·s/√n, df = n − 1
Critical z
90%: 1.645, 95%: 1.96, 99%: 2.576
Sample size
n = (z·σ/E)², rounded up

Method

  1. Decide between z (population σ known) and t (only the sample s, with n − 1 degrees of freedom).
  2. Find the critical value for the confidence level.
  3. Margin of error: E = critical value × standard deviation/√n.
  4. Interval: x̄ ± E.

Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

z-test for a mean
z = (x̄ − μ0)/(σ/√n)
t-test for a mean
t = (x̄ − μ0)/(s/√n), df = n − 1
Two-sided at 5%
reject H0 if |z| > 1.96
Confidence interval
x̄ ± z·σ/√n

Method

  1. State H₀ and H₁ and decide whether the test is one- or two-sided.
  2. Calculate the test statistic: (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n), or with s and t.
  3. Compare with the critical value, or find the p-value.
  4. Reject H₀ if the statistic is beyond the critical value (p below α), and state the conclusion in words.

Linear regression & correlation

Sums of squares
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = Σx² − (Σx)²/n, Sxy = Σxy − ΣxΣy/n
Slope
b = Sxy/Sxx
Intercept
a = ȳ − b·x̄
Correlation
r = Sxy/√(SxxSyy)
Residual
e = y − ŷ

Chi-square tests

Test statistic
χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E
Goodness of fit
E = n·p, df = k − 1 − (estimated parameters)
Independence
E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1)
Critical values (α = 0.05)
df 1: 3.841, 2: 5.991, 3: 7.815, 4: 9.488
Decision
reject H0 if χ² > χ²crit

2Practice problems

1.Normal distributionMedium
−3−2−10123zshaded area to the right of z = 0.8133

Drag z so that the shaded area under the standard normal curve, to the right of z, is 0.8133. Find z to two decimals.

A = 0.8133
z =
2.Normal distributionHard
μ = 32x = ?80%

The delivery times are normally distributed with mean 32 min and standard deviation 6 min. Find the value x below which 80% of them lie (the 80th percentile).

μ = 32σ = 6P = 80%
x = min
3.Confidence intervalsMedium
μ₁ − μ₂0LUx̄₁ − x̄₂E = ?90%

The battery life of two phone models is compared. Model 1: 60 phones, mean 69 h, known standard deviation 16 h. Model 2: 60 phones, mean 72.5 h, known standard deviation 3 h. Find the margin of error E of the 90% confidence interval for μ₁ − μ₂.

n₁ = 60x̄₁ = 69 hσ₁ = 16 hn₂ = 60x̄₂ = 72.5 hσ₂ = 3 h90%
E = h
4.Confidence intervalsHard
σ = 12, n = ?x̄ − Ex̄ + Ex̄E = 2.590%

The population standard deviation is 12. How large a sample n do you need so that a 90% confidence interval for the mean has a margin of error of at most 2.5?

σ = 12E = 2.590%
n =
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
t −1.98401.984

A sample of 100 students has a mean score of 199.6 and a sample standard deviation of 5. Find the test statistic t for H₀: μ = 200.

μ₀ = 200x̄ = 199.6s = 5n = 100
t =
6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
μ₀x̄c

A one-sided z test of H₀: μ = 100 against H₁: μ < 100 is done at α = 0.05 with a sample of 64; the standard deviation is known to be 16. In reality the mean is 93. Find the probability of a Type II error β in percent.

μ₀ = 100μ = 93σ = 16n = 64α = 0.05
β = %
7.Linear regression & correlationMedium
xy147251361464563xy245060

The table gives 5 paired observations of x = hours studied and y = exam score. Find Pearson's correlation coefficient r.

n = 5
r =
8.Linear regression & correlationHard
xy254661181210161221xy5105101520x = 11

The table gives 6 paired observations of x = load in kN and y = extension in mm. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. Predict ŷ for x = 11.

n = 6x = 11
ŷ =
9.Chi-square testsMedium
coughno coughTotalsmokers503080non-smokers411960Total9149140

The contingency table shows observed counts. Compute the chi-square statistic χ² for the test of independence between the row and column variables. Do not use a continuity correction.

N = 1402 × 2
χ² =
10.Chi-square testsHard
yesnoTotalline 1223860line 2194160line 36931100Total110110220dfα = 0.05α = 0.0113.8416.63525.9919.21037.81511.34549.48813.277511.07015.086612.59216.812714.06718.475815.50720.090916.91921.6661018.30723.209

The table shows observed counts. Test at α = 0.05 whether the two variables are independent (no continuity correction). Compute the test statistic χ², then compare it with the critical value from the table.

N = 2203 × 2α = 0.05
χ² =

3Solutions

1.Normal distribution

Answer: z = −0.89

From an area back to z: Φ(z) is the area to the left of z. For a left-tail area A, find z with Φ(z) = A in the table. A right-tail area A means Φ(z) = 1 − A. A central area A between −z and z leaves (1 − A)/2 in each tail, so Φ(z) = (1 + A)/2. For a value x, use x = μ + zσ.

Area to the left of z

Φ(z) = 1 − 0.8133 = 0.1867

Read the z-table backwards

Find 0.1867 inside the table and read off z.

z = −0.89

Answer

z = −0.89
2.Normal distribution

Answer: x = 37.05 min

Normal distribution: convert a value x to a z-score, z = (x − μ)/σ, which counts standard deviations from the mean. A z-table (or Φ(z)) gives the area to the left of z, which is P(X < x). The area to the right is 1 − Φ(z), and the area between two values is the difference of their two areas.

z for the percentile

Φ(z) = 0.8 → z = 0.8416

Back to x

x = 32 + 0.8416·6 = 37.05 min

Answer

x = 37.05 min
3.Confidence intervals

Answer: E = 3.457 h

Interval for a difference: estimate ± critical value × standard error. For two independent means with known σ: SE = √(σ₁²/n₁ + σ₂²/n₂) and z. With equal unknown variances: pooled s_p and t with n₁ + n₂ − 2 degrees of freedom. For paired data, work with the differences: d̄ ± t·s_d/√n.

Point estimate

x̄₁ − x̄₂ = 69 − 72.5 = −3.5

Standard error

SE = √(16²/60 + 3²/60) = 2.102

Margin of error

E = 1.645·2.102 = 3.457

Answer

E = 3.457 h

The interval does not contain 0, so the means differ significantly.

4.Confidence intervals

Answer: n = 63

Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.

Solve for n

n = (1.645·12/2.5)² = 62.35

Round up

A sample size is a whole number, and rounding down would make the margin too large.

n = 63

Answer

n = 63
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: t = −0.8

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Standard error

SE = 5/√100 = 5/10 = 0.5

Test statistic

t = (199.6 − 200)/0.5 = −0.8

Answer

t = −0.8
t0.025; df = 99 = 1.984

|t| < 1.984, so H₀ is not rejected at the 5% level (two-sided).

6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: β = 3.18 %

Power of a test: power = 1 − β is the probability of rejecting H₀ when it is false. Find the cutoff x̄c from μ₀ and z_α, then compute the probability of landing beyond x̄c using the true mean: z = (x̄c − μ)/(σ/√n).

Critical sample mean

SE = 16/√64 = 2
x̄c = 100 − 1.645·2 = 96.71

z under the true mean

z = (96.71 − 93)/2 = 1.855

Type II error

power = P(Z < 1.855) = 96.82%
β = 100% − 96.82% = 3.18%

Answer

β = 3.18%
7.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: r = 0.9247

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 15/5 = 3
ȳ = 286/5 = 57.2

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 10
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 45
Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² = 236.8

Correlation coefficient

r = 45/√(10·236.8) = 0.9247

Answer

r = 0.9247
8.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: ŷ = 18.18

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 42/6 = 7
ȳ = 71/6 = 11.83

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 70
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 111

Regression line

b = 111/70 = 1.586
a = 11.83 − 1.586·7 = 0.7333
ŷ = 0.7333 + 1.586·x

Prediction

ŷ = 0.7333 + 1.586·11 = 18.18

Answer

ŷ = 18.18
9.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ² = 0.5128

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected counts

smokers: 80·91/140 = 52, 80·49/140 = 28
non-smokers: 60·91/140 = 39, 60·49/140 = 21

Chi-square statistic

χ² = (50 − 52)²/52 + (30 − 28)²/28 + (41 − 39)²/39 + (19 − 21)²/21
χ² = 0.5128

Answer

χ² = 0.5128

df = 1. At α = 0.05 the critical value is 3.841, so H₀ (independence) is not rejected.

10.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ² = 26.77

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected counts

line 1: 30, 30
line 2: 30, 30
line 3: 50, 50

Chi-square statistic

χ² = (22 − 30)²/30 + (38 − 30)²/30 + (19 − 30)²/30 + (41 − 30)²/30 + (69 − 50)²/50 + (31 − 50)²/50
χ² = 26.77

Decision

df = 2, χ²crit = 5.991
26.77 > 5.991

Answer

χ² = 26.77

χ² is above the critical value, so H₀ is rejected: the variables appear to be related.

ExamProblems · examproblems.com/courses/statistics-2-inference