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1Formulas and methods
Time value of money
Future value
FV = PV·(1 + i)n
Present value
PV = FV/(1 + i)n
Several periods per year
i = r/m, N = m·n
Annuity, present value
PV = PMT·[1 − (1 + i)−n]/i
Annuity, future value
FV = PMT·[(1 + i)n − 1]/i
Method
Draw a timeline with every cash flow and its timing.
Match the rate to the period: a monthly rate for monthly payments.
Use FV = PV·(1 + i)ⁿ for single amounts and the annuity formulas for equal payments.
Check the sign and the order of magnitude of the answer.
NPV & IRR
Net present value
NPV = −C0 + Σ CFt/(1 + r)t
Equal cash flows
NPV = −C0 + CF·[1 − (1 + r)−n]/r
Internal rate of return
the r at which NPV = 0
Decision
accept when NPV > 0 (or IRR > required return)
Method
List all cash flows with their year; the investment at year 0 is negative.
Discount each cash flow: CFt/(1 + r)t.
Add them up to get the NPV. Positive means the project earns more than r.
For the IRR, find the rate that makes NPV zero by trial or interpolation.
Bond pricing & yield
Bond price
P = C·(1 − (1 + y)−n)/y + F/(1 + y)n
Semi-annual
C/2, y/2 and 2n periods
Current yield
C/P
Price and yield
yield up → price down
Method
Find the coupon per period and the yield per period.
Price = present value of the coupons (an annuity) + present value of the face value.
For semi-annual coupons use half the coupon, half the yield and twice the periods.
Check: if the yield is above the coupon rate, the price is below face value.
CAPM & WACC
CAPM
re = rf + β·(rm − rf)
WACC
E/V·re + D/V·rd·(1 − T)
Firm value
V = E + D
Break-even analysis
Contribution margin
CM = p − v
Break-even quantity
QBE = FC/(p − v)
Target profit
Q = (FC + profit)/(p − v)
Profit
π = (p − v)·Q − FC
Margin of safety
(Q − QBE)/Q
2Practice problems
1.Time value of moneyMedium
You invest €3 000 at a nominal rate of 3.6% per year, compounded monthly. Find the value FV of the investment after 5 years.
PV = €3 0003.6% / 12n = 5
FV = €
2.Time value of moneyHard
You save €500 at the end of every month for 30 years. The account pays 6% per year, compounded monthly. How much have you saved at the end? Find FV.
A = €5006% / 12N = 360
FV = €
3.NPV & IRRMedium
An investment of €20 000 gives these cash flows at the end of years 1 to 4: €5 000, €8 000, €9 000, €4 000. The cost of capital is 8%. Find the net present value NPV.
A project costs €50 000 and returns €28 500, €33 500 at the end of years 1 to 2. Find its internal rate of return IRR in percent.
CF0 = −50 000CF1 = 28 500CF2 = 33 500
IRR = %
5.Bond pricing & yieldMedium
A bond with a face value of €1 000 pays an annual coupon of 3% and matures in 6 years. Its yield to maturity changes from 3.5% to 5.5%. By how much ΔP does the bond price change?
F = €1 000coupon = 3%n = 6y1 = 3.5%y2 = 5.5%
ΔP = €
6.Bond pricing & yieldHard
A bond trades at €1 080 with a yield to maturity of 6% (annual compounding) and a Macaulay duration of 6.2 years. Use the modified duration to estimate the new price P if the yield rises by 50 basis points.
P0 = €1 080y = 6%D = 6.2Δy = +50 bp
P = €
7.CAPM & WACCMedium
A company has a debt-to-equity ratio (at market values) of 0.4. Its cost of equity is 10%, its pre-tax cost of debt is 3% and the tax rate is 28%. Find the WACC.
D/E = 0.4re = 10%rd = 3%T = 28%
WACC = %
8.CAPM & WACCHard
A company has 4 000 000 shares trading at €40.50; the book value of its equity is €97 200 000. It just paid a dividend of €2.20 per share, and dividends grow by 4% per year. Its debt has a market value of €81 000 000 and a pre-tax cost of 3%. The tax rate is 28%. Find the WACC, using the dividend growth model for the cost of equity.
A company sells 1 880 units at €14 each. The variable cost is €6 per unit and fixed costs are €12 000. Find the degree of operating leverage DOL at this sales level.
Q = 1 880p = €14v = €6F = €12 000
DOL =
10.Break-even analysisHard
A product sells for €50 per unit, with a variable cost of €45 per unit and fixed costs of €6 000 per year. Budgeted sales are 1 800 units. Find the margin of safety MS as a percentage of budgeted sales.
F = €6 000p = €50v = €45budget = 1 800
MS = %
3Solutions
1.Time value of money
Answer: FV = 3591 €
Time value of money: money today is worth more than the same amount later, because it can earn interest. With interest rate i per period, an amount grows as FV = PV·(1 + i)n. A series of equal payments (an annuity) is valued by adding up each payment, which gives the annuity formulas.
Time value of money: money today is worth more than the same amount later, because it can earn interest. With interest rate i per period, an amount grows as FV = PV·(1 + i)n. A series of equal payments (an annuity) is valued by adding up each payment, which gives the annuity formulas.
You paid in €180 000 yourself; the rest is interest.
3.NPV & IRR
Answer: NPV = 1573 €
Net present value: discount every cash flow back to today with the required rate of return r, then add them up: NPV = Σ CFₜ/(1 + r)ᵗ. A project with NPV > 0 earns more than r and adds value. The internal rate of return (IRR) is the rate at which NPV = 0.
Present value of each cash flow
CF0 = −20 000
CF1/(1 + 0.08)1 = 5 000/1.08 = 4 629.63
CF2/(1 + 0.08)2 = 8 000/1.166 = 6 858.71
CF3/(1 + 0.08)3 = 9 000/1.26 = 7 144.49
CF4/(1 + 0.08)4 = 4 000/1.36 = 2 940.12
Add them up
NPV = €1 572.95
Answer
NPV = €1 572.95
NPV is positive, so the project earns more than the required return.
4.NPV & IRR
Answer: IRR = 15.17 %
Net present value: discount every cash flow back to today with the required rate of return r, then add them up: NPV = Σ CFₜ/(1 + r)ᵗ. A project with NPV > 0 earns more than r and adds value. The internal rate of return (IRR) is the rate at which NPV = 0.
Bracket the IRR
NPV falls as the rate rises, so the IRR lies between a rate with positive NPV and one with negative NPV.
NPV(15%) = 113.42
NPV(20%) = −2 986.11
Narrow down
Linear interpolation gives a first estimate; repeating it (or a calculator's IRR function) gives the exact rate.
Bond pricing: a bond’s price is the present value of its cash flows, discounted at the yield to maturity (YTM): the coupons form an annuity and the face value is paid back at maturity. P = C·(1 − (1 + y)⁻ⁿ)/y + F/(1 + y)ⁿ. When the yield is above the coupon rate the bond trades below face value, and the other way round.
Duration: the Macaulay duration is the weighted average time at which a bond pays its cash flows, with the present values of the cash flows as weights: D = Σ t·PVₜ/P. The modified duration D/(1 + y) estimates the percentage price change for a small change in yield: %ΔP ≈ −Dmod·Δy.
Modified duration
Dmod = 6.2/1.06 = 5.849
Estimated price change
%ΔP ≈ −5.849·(0.005) = −2.925%
P ≈ 1080·(1 − 0.02925) = €1 048.42
Answer
P = €1 048.42
Duration is a linear estimate; for large yield changes convexity makes the true price a little higher.
7.CAPM & WACC
Answer: WACC = 7.76 %
Cost of capital: CAPM gives the return shareholders require: re = rf + β·(rm − rf). The weighted average cost of capital mixes equity and debt by their market values: WACC = E/V·re + D/V·rd·(1 − T), with V = E + D. Interest is tax-deductible, hence the (1 − T).
Weights from D/E
E/V = 1/(1 + 0.4) = 0.7143
D/V = 0.4/(1 + 0.4) = 0.2857
WACC
WACC = 0.7143·10% + 0.2857·3%·(1 − 0.28) = 7.76%
Answer
WACC = 7.76%
8.CAPM & WACC
Answer: WACC = 7.153 %
Cost of capital: CAPM gives the return shareholders require: re = rf + β·(rm − rf). The weighted average cost of capital mixes equity and debt by their market values: WACC = E/V·re + D/V·rd·(1 − T), with V = E + D. Interest is tax-deductible, hence the (1 − T).
Operating leverage: fixed costs make profit react more strongly than sales. The degree of operating leverage DOL = contribution margin/operating profit tells you that a 1% change in sales changes profit by DOL %. It is very high just above break-even and falls as sales grow.
Total contribution margin
CM = 1 880·(14 − 6) = €15 040
Operating profit
Π = 15 040 − 12 000 = €3 040
DOL
DOL = 15 040/3 040 = 4.947
Answer
DOL = 4.947
10.Break-even analysis
Answer: MS = 33.33 %
Cost-volume-profit: each unit sold earns a contribution margin, price minus variable cost per unit. Profit = Q·(p − v) − F, where F is the fixed cost. At the break-even point profit is zero, so Q = F/(p − v).