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1Formulas and methods
Time value of money
Future value
FV = PV·(1 + i)n
Present value
PV = FV/(1 + i)n
Several periods per year
i = r/m, N = m·n
Annuity, present value
PV = PMT·[1 − (1 + i)−n]/i
Annuity, future value
FV = PMT·[(1 + i)n − 1]/i
Method
Draw a timeline with every cash flow and its timing.
Match the rate to the period: a monthly rate for monthly payments.
Use FV = PV·(1 + i)ⁿ for single amounts and the annuity formulas for equal payments.
Check the sign and the order of magnitude of the answer.
NPV & IRR
Net present value
NPV = −C0 + Σ CFt/(1 + r)t
Equal cash flows
NPV = −C0 + CF·[1 − (1 + r)−n]/r
Internal rate of return
the r at which NPV = 0
Decision
accept when NPV > 0 (or IRR > required return)
Method
List all cash flows with their year; the investment at year 0 is negative.
Discount each cash flow: CFt/(1 + r)t.
Add them up to get the NPV. Positive means the project earns more than r.
For the IRR, find the rate that makes NPV zero by trial or interpolation.
Bond pricing & yield
Bond price
P = C·(1 − (1 + y)−n)/y + F/(1 + y)n
Semi-annual
C/2, y/2 and 2n periods
Current yield
C/P
Price and yield
yield up → price down
Method
Find the coupon per period and the yield per period.
Price = present value of the coupons (an annuity) + present value of the face value.
For semi-annual coupons use half the coupon, half the yield and twice the periods.
Check: if the yield is above the coupon rate, the price is below face value.
CAPM & WACC
CAPM
re = rf + β·(rm − rf)
WACC
E/V·re + D/V·rd·(1 − T)
Firm value
V = E + D
Break-even analysis
Contribution margin
CM = p − v
Break-even quantity
QBE = FC/(p − v)
Target profit
Q = (FC + profit)/(p − v)
Profit
π = (p − v)·Q − FC
Margin of safety
(Q − QBE)/Q
2Practice problems
1.Time value of moneyMedium
A property is expected to earn net rent of €12 000 next year. The rent is expected to grow by 2.5% per year forever. The required return is 5.5% per year. Find the value PV of the property today.
C1 = €12 000g = 2.5%r = 5.5%
PV = €
2.Time value of moneyHard
A mortgage of €200 000 is repaid with equal monthly payments over 30 years at 2.4% per year, compounded monthly. How much is still owed just after the payment at the end of year 10? Find the outstanding balance B.
P = €200 0002.4% / 12N = 360k = 120
B = €
3.NPV & IRRMedium
A project costs €200 000 today. It generates €8 000 at the end of the first year, and the cash flow then grows by 4% per year forever. The cost of capital is 9%. Find the net present value NPV.
C0 = €200 000CF1 = €8 000g = 4%r = 9%
NPV = €
4.NPV & IRRHard
Project A costs €20 000 and returns €11 500, €8 000, €4 000 at the end of years 1 to 3. Project B costs €25 000 and returns €7 000, €10 000, €13 500. Find the crossover rate r* at which both projects have the same NPV, in percent.
A bond with a face value of €1 000 pays a 2% annual coupon in two half-yearly payments and matures in 11 years. The yield to maturity is 8% per year. Find the price P of the bond.
F = €1 000coupon = 2%YTM = 8%n = 11
P = €
6.Bond pricing & yieldHard
A bond trades at €905 with a yield to maturity of 4% (annual compounding) and a Macaulay duration of 11 years. Use the modified duration to estimate the new price P if the yield falls by 75 basis points.
P0 = €905y = 4%D = 11Δy = −75 bp
P = €
7.CAPM & WACCMedium
A company has equity worth €6 000 000 and debt worth €2 000 000. Its cost of equity is 10%, its pre-tax cost of debt is 4.5% and the tax rate is 25%. Find the WACC.
A company has equity with a market value of €15 000 000 and a cost of equity of 10%. Its debt consists of 4 000 bonds (face value €1 000, annual coupon 7%, 8 years to maturity) that trade at €915 each. The tax rate is 30%. Find the WACC, using the yield to maturity of the bonds as the pre-tax cost of debt.
A product can be made in two ways. Method A has fixed costs of €20 000 per year and a variable cost of €20 per unit. Method B, more automated, has fixed costs of €35 000 per year and a variable cost of €17 per unit. At what yearly volume Q do both methods cost the same?
FA = €20 000vA = €20FB = €35 000vB = €17
Q = units
10.Break-even analysisHard
A company sells 10 000 units per month at €24 each, with a variable cost of €4 per unit and fixed costs of €100 000 per month. The variable cost rises by €4 per unit and the price stays the same. How many units Q must now be sold per month to keep the same profit?
Q = 10 000p = €24v = €4 → €8F = €100 000
Q = units
3Solutions
1.Time value of money
Answer: PV = 400000 €
Time value of money: money today is worth more than the same amount later, because it can earn interest. With interest rate i per period, an amount grows as FV = PV·(1 + i)n. A series of equal payments (an annuity) is valued by adding up each payment, which gives the annuity formulas.
Time value of money: money today is worth more than the same amount later, because it can earn interest. With interest rate i per period, an amount grows as FV = PV·(1 + i)n. A series of equal payments (an annuity) is valued by adding up each payment, which gives the annuity formulas.
Monthly payment
i = 0.002, N = 360
A = 200 000·0.002/(1 − (1 + 0.002)−360) = €779.88
Present value of the remaining payments
Whatever is still owed must be exactly paid off by the remaining payments.
N − k = 360 − 120 = 240
B = 779.9·(1 − (1 + 0.002)−240)/0.002 = €148 536.43
Answer
B = €148 536.43
3.NPV & IRR
Answer: NPV = −40000 €
Net present value: discount every cash flow back to today with the required rate of return r, then add them up: NPV = Σ CFₜ/(1 + r)ᵗ. A project with NPV > 0 earns more than r and adds value. The internal rate of return (IRR) is the rate at which NPV = 0.
Value of the cash flows
PV = 8 000/(0.09 − 0.04) = 160 000.00
NPV
NPV = 160 000.00 − 200 000 = −€40 000.00
Answer
NPV = −€40 000.00
NPV is negative, so the project earns less than the required return.
4.NPV & IRR
Answer: r* = 8.445 %
Crossover rate: the discount rate at which two projects have the same NPV. It is the IRR of the difference in their cash flows (B − A). Below it the project with the later, larger cash flows has the higher NPV; above it the other one wins.
Difference in cash flows
ΔCF0 = −25 000 − (−20 000) = −5 000
ΔCF1 = 7 000 − 11 500 = −4 500
ΔCF2 = 10 000 − 8 000 = 2 000
ΔCF3 = 13 500 − 4 000 = 9 500
IRR of the difference
NPVΔ(8%) = 89.42
NPVΔ(9%) = −109.34
r* = 8.445%
Answer
r* = 8.445%
Check: at 8.445% both NPVs are €543.37.
5.Bond pricing & yield
Answer: P = 566.5 €
Bond pricing: a bond’s price is the present value of its cash flows, discounted at the yield to maturity (YTM): the coupons form an annuity and the face value is paid back at maturity. P = C·(1 − (1 + y)⁻ⁿ)/y + F/(1 + y)ⁿ. When the yield is above the coupon rate the bond trades below face value, and the other way round.
Per period
C = €10.00, i = 0.04, N = 22
Present value of the coupons
€10.00·(1 − 0.422)/0.04 = €144.51
Present value of the face value
€1 000·0.422 = €421.96
Price
P = €566.47
Answer
P = €566.47
The yield is above the coupon rate, so the bond sells at a discount.
6.Bond pricing & yield
Answer: P = 976.8 €
Duration: the Macaulay duration is the weighted average time at which a bond pays its cash flows, with the present values of the cash flows as weights: D = Σ t·PVₜ/P. The modified duration D/(1 + y) estimates the percentage price change for a small change in yield: %ΔP ≈ −Dmod·Δy.
Modified duration
Dmod = 11/1.04 = 10.58
Estimated price change
%ΔP ≈ −10.58·(−0.0075) = 7.933%
P ≈ 905·(1 + 0.07933) = €976.79
Answer
P = €976.79
Duration is a linear estimate; for large yield changes convexity makes the true price a little higher.
7.CAPM & WACC
Answer: WACC = 8.344 %
Cost of capital: CAPM gives the return shareholders require: re = rf + β·(rm − rf). The weighted average cost of capital mixes equity and debt by their market values: WACC = E/V·re + D/V·rd·(1 − T), with V = E + D. Interest is tax-deductible, hence the (1 − T).
Weights
V = €8 000 000, E/V = 0.75, D/V = 0.25
WACC
WACC = 0.75·10% + 0.25·4.5%·(1 − 0.25) = 8.344%
Answer
WACC = 8.344%
8.CAPM & WACC
Answer: WACC = 9.207 %
Cost of capital: CAPM gives the return shareholders require: re = rf + β·(rm − rf). The weighted average cost of capital mixes equity and debt by their market values: WACC = E/V·re + D/V·rd·(1 − T), with V = E + D. Interest is tax-deductible, hence the (1 − T).
Cost-volume-profit: each unit sold earns a contribution margin, price minus variable cost per unit. Profit = Q·(p − v) − F, where F is the fixed cost. At the break-even point profit is zero, so Q = F/(p − v).
Equal total costs
20 000 + 20Q = 35 000 + 17Q
Solve for Q
Q = (35 000 − 20 000)/(20 − 17) = 5 000
Answer
Q = 5 000 units
Below this volume method A is cheaper; above it the automated method B is cheaper.
10.Break-even analysis
Answer: Q = 12500 units
Cost-volume-profit: each unit sold earns a contribution margin, price minus variable cost per unit. Profit = Q·(p − v) − F, where F is the fixed cost. At the break-even point profit is zero, so Q = F/(p − v).