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1Formulas and methods
Time value of money
Future value
FV = PV·(1 + i)n
Present value
PV = FV/(1 + i)n
Several periods per year
i = r/m, N = m·n
Annuity, present value
PV = PMT·[1 − (1 + i)−n]/i
Annuity, future value
FV = PMT·[(1 + i)n − 1]/i
Method
Draw a timeline with every cash flow and its timing.
Match the rate to the period: a monthly rate for monthly payments.
Use FV = PV·(1 + i)ⁿ for single amounts and the annuity formulas for equal payments.
Check the sign and the order of magnitude of the answer.
NPV & IRR
Net present value
NPV = −C0 + Σ CFt/(1 + r)t
Equal cash flows
NPV = −C0 + CF·[1 − (1 + r)−n]/r
Internal rate of return
the r at which NPV = 0
Decision
accept when NPV > 0 (or IRR > required return)
Method
List all cash flows with their year; the investment at year 0 is negative.
Discount each cash flow: CFt/(1 + r)t.
Add them up to get the NPV. Positive means the project earns more than r.
For the IRR, find the rate that makes NPV zero by trial or interpolation.
Bond pricing & yield
Bond price
P = C·(1 − (1 + y)−n)/y + F/(1 + y)n
Semi-annual
C/2, y/2 and 2n periods
Current yield
C/P
Price and yield
yield up → price down
Method
Find the coupon per period and the yield per period.
Price = present value of the coupons (an annuity) + present value of the face value.
For semi-annual coupons use half the coupon, half the yield and twice the periods.
Check: if the yield is above the coupon rate, the price is below face value.
CAPM & WACC
CAPM
re = rf + β·(rm − rf)
WACC
E/V·re + D/V·rd·(1 − T)
Firm value
V = E + D
Break-even analysis
Contribution margin
CM = p − v
Break-even quantity
QBE = FC/(p − v)
Target profit
Q = (FC + profit)/(p − v)
Profit
π = (p − v)·Q − FC
Margin of safety
(Q − QBE)/Q
2Practice problems
1.Time value of moneyMedium
You invest €5 000 at 4% per year with continuous compounding. Find the value FV after 8 years.
PV = €5 000r = 4%t = 8
FV = €
2.Time value of moneyHard
You want €10 000 in 10 years. You save the same amount at the end of every month in an account paying 7.2% per year, compounded monthly. Find the monthly deposit A.
FV = €10 0007.2% / 12N = 120
A = €
3.NPV & IRRMedium
A machine costs €60 000 today. It generates €8 500 at the end of each year for 7 years and can then be sold for €15 000. The cost of capital is 12%. Find the net present value NPV.
C0 = €60 000CF = €8 500S = €15 000n = 7r = 12%
NPV = €
4.NPV & IRRHard
A project costs €200 000 today. Its cash flow is €33 500 at the end of year 1 and grows by 2% per year until the last cash flow at the end of year 6. The cost of capital is 12%. Find the net present value NPV.
C0 = €200 000CF1 = €33 500g = 2%n = 6r = 12%
NPV = €
5.Bond pricing & yieldMedium
You buy a bond with 9 years to maturity (face value €1 000, annual coupon 7%) when its yield to maturity is 9%. One year later, just after receiving the first coupon, you sell it when the yield to maturity is 9.5%. Find your holding period return HPR in percent.
F = €1 000coupon = 7%n = 9y0 = 9%y1 = 9.5%
HPR = %
6.Bond pricing & yieldHard
A bond trades at €925 with a yield to maturity of 3% (annual compounding) and a Macaulay duration of 8.6 years. Use the modified duration to estimate the new price P if the yield rises by 50 basis points.
P0 = €925y = 3%D = 8.6Δy = +50 bp
P = €
7.CAPM & WACCMedium
A share with a beta of 0.6 has a required return of 5.9%. The risk-free rate is 2%. What expected market return rm does CAPM imply?
β = 0.6re = 5.9%rf = 2%
rm = %
8.CAPM & WACCHard
A company has 5 000 000 shares at €21.00 each and 5 000 bonds trading at €980 each. The pre-tax cost of debt is 3.5% and the tax rate is 25.8%. The share’s beta is 0.9, the risk-free rate 3.5% and the market return 8.5%. Find the WACC.
β = 0.9rf = 3.5%rm = 8.5%rd = 3.5%T = 25.8%
WACC = %
9.Break-even analysisMedium
A company sells 3 000 units at €14 each. The variable cost is €4 per unit and fixed costs are €10 000. Find the degree of operating leverage DOL at this sales level.
Q = 3 000p = €14v = €4F = €10 000
DOL =
10.Break-even analysisHard
A product sells for €45 per unit, with a variable cost of €30 per unit and fixed costs of €12 000 per year. Budgeted sales are 960 units. Find the margin of safety MS as a percentage of budgeted sales.
F = €12 000p = €45v = €30budget = 960
MS = %
3Solutions
1.Time value of money
Answer: FV = 6886 €
Time value of money: money today is worth more than the same amount later, because it can earn interest. With interest rate i per period, an amount grows as FV = PV·(1 + i)n. A series of equal payments (an annuity) is valued by adding up each payment, which gives the annuity formulas.
Exponent
r·t = 0.04·8 = 0.32
e0.32 = 1.377
Future value
FV = 5 000·1.377 = €6 885.64
Answer
FV = €6 885.64
2.Time value of money
Answer: A = 57.14 €
Time value of money: money today is worth more than the same amount later, because it can earn interest. With interest rate i per period, an amount grows as FV = PV·(1 + i)n. A series of equal payments (an annuity) is valued by adding up each payment, which gives the annuity formulas.
Net present value: discount every cash flow back to today with the required rate of return r, then add them up: NPV = Σ CFₜ/(1 + r)ᵗ. A project with NPV > 0 earns more than r and adds value. The internal rate of return (IRR) is the rate at which NPV = 0.
Net present value: discount every cash flow back to today with the required rate of return r, then add them up: NPV = Σ CFₜ/(1 + r)ᵗ. A project with NPV > 0 earns more than r and adds value. The internal rate of return (IRR) is the rate at which NPV = 0.
NPV is negative, so the project earns less than the required return.
5.Bond pricing & yield
Answer: HPR = 6.144 %
Bond pricing: a bond’s price is the present value of its cash flows, discounted at the yield to maturity (YTM): the coupons form an annuity and the face value is paid back at maturity. P = C·(1 − (1 + y)⁻ⁿ)/y + F/(1 + y)ⁿ. When the yield is above the coupon rate the bond trades below face value, and the other way round.
Duration: the Macaulay duration is the weighted average time at which a bond pays its cash flows, with the present values of the cash flows as weights: D = Σ t·PVₜ/P. The modified duration D/(1 + y) estimates the percentage price change for a small change in yield: %ΔP ≈ −Dmod·Δy.
Modified duration
Dmod = 8.6/1.03 = 8.35
Estimated price change
%ΔP ≈ −8.35·(0.005) = −4.175%
P ≈ 925·(1 − 0.04175) = €886.38
Answer
P = €886.38
Duration is a linear estimate; for large yield changes convexity makes the true price a little higher.
7.CAPM & WACC
Answer: rm = 8.5 %
Cost of capital: CAPM gives the return shareholders require: re = rf + β·(rm − rf). The weighted average cost of capital mixes equity and debt by their market values: WACC = E/V·re + D/V·rd·(1 − T), with V = E + D. Interest is tax-deductible, hence the (1 − T).
Market risk premium
rm − rf = (5.9% − 2%)/0.6 = 6.5%
Market return
rm = 2% + 6.5% = 8.5%
Answer
rm = 8.5%
8.CAPM & WACC
Answer: WACC = 7.759 %
Cost of capital: CAPM gives the return shareholders require: re = rf + β·(rm − rf). The weighted average cost of capital mixes equity and debt by their market values: WACC = E/V·re + D/V·rd·(1 − T), with V = E + D. Interest is tax-deductible, hence the (1 − T).
Operating leverage: fixed costs make profit react more strongly than sales. The degree of operating leverage DOL = contribution margin/operating profit tells you that a 1% change in sales changes profit by DOL %. It is very high just above break-even and falls as sales grow.
Total contribution margin
CM = 3 000·(14 − 4) = €30 000
Operating profit
Π = 30 000 − 10 000 = €20 000
DOL
DOL = 30 000/20 000 = 1.5
Answer
DOL = 1.5
10.Break-even analysis
Answer: MS = 16.67 %
Cost-volume-profit: each unit sold earns a contribution margin, price minus variable cost per unit. Profit = Q·(p − v) − F, where F is the fixed cost. At the break-even point profit is zero, so Q = F/(p − v).