Statistics 2: Statistical Inference: cram pack

Formula sheets, the key method steps for every topic and 10 practice problems, with full solutions at the back.

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1Formulas and methods

Normal distribution

z-score
z = (x − μ)/σ
Below x
P(X < x) = Φ(z)
Above x
P(X > x) = 1 − Φ(z)
Between
Φ(z2) − Φ(z1)
Percentile
x = μ + z·σ

Method

  1. Convert the value to a z-score: z = (x − μ)/σ.
  2. Look up Φ(z), the area to the left of z.
  3. For the area to the right use 1 − Φ(z); for an interval subtract the two left areas.
  4. For a percentile, work backwards: find z for the area, then x = μ + z·σ.

Confidence intervals

σ known
x̄ ± z·σ/√n
σ unknown
x̄ ± t·s/√n, df = n − 1
Critical z
90%: 1.645, 95%: 1.96, 99%: 2.576
Sample size
n = (z·σ/E)², rounded up

Method

  1. Decide between z (population σ known) and t (only the sample s, with n − 1 degrees of freedom).
  2. Find the critical value for the confidence level.
  3. Margin of error: E = critical value × standard deviation/√n.
  4. Interval: x̄ ± E.

Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

z-test for a mean
z = (x̄ − μ0)/(σ/√n)
t-test for a mean
t = (x̄ − μ0)/(s/√n), df = n − 1
Two-sided at 5%
reject H0 if |z| > 1.96
Confidence interval
x̄ ± z·σ/√n

Method

  1. State H₀ and H₁ and decide whether the test is one- or two-sided.
  2. Calculate the test statistic: (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n), or with s and t.
  3. Compare with the critical value, or find the p-value.
  4. Reject H₀ if the statistic is beyond the critical value (p below α), and state the conclusion in words.

Linear regression & correlation

Sums of squares
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = Σx² − (Σx)²/n, Sxy = Σxy − ΣxΣy/n
Slope
b = Sxy/Sxx
Intercept
a = ȳ − b·x̄
Correlation
r = Sxy/√(SxxSyy)
Residual
e = y − ŷ

Chi-square tests

Test statistic
χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E
Goodness of fit
E = n·p, df = k − 1 − (estimated parameters)
Independence
E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1)
Critical values (α = 0.05)
df 1: 3.841, 2: 5.991, 3: 7.815, 4: 9.488
Decision
reject H0 if χ² > χ²crit

2Practice problems

1.Normal distributionMedium
400 kg404 kgT = X₁ + … + X₁₆?

The masses of bags of cement are independent and normal with mean 25 kg and standard deviation 0.5 kg. Find the probability P that the total mass of 16 of them is below 404 kg. Round z to two decimals.

μ = 25 kgσ = 0.5 kgn = 16< 404 kg
P =
2.Normal distributionHard
380420460500540580620hbottom 90%

The battery lifetimes are normally distributed with mean 500 h and standard deviation 40 h. Drag the cut-off so the shaded bottom 90% is to the left of it. Find the cut-off x.

μ = 500 hσ = 40 h90%
x = h
3.Confidence intervalsMedium
n = 12, s = 18LUx̄ = 106E = ?90%

A sample of 12 items has mean 106 and standard deviation s = 18. The population is roughly normal. Find the margin of error E of a 90% confidence interval for the mean.

n = 12x̄ = 106s = 1890%t(11) = 1.796
E =
4.Confidence intervalsHard
σ = 36, n = ?x̄ − Ex̄ + Ex̄E = 295%

The population standard deviation is 36. How large a sample n do you need so that a 95% confidence interval for the mean has a margin of error of at most 2?

σ = 36E = 295%
n =
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
t −1.99801.998

A sample of 64 students has a mean score of 501.4 and a sample standard deviation of 4. Find the test statistic t for H₀: μ = 500.

μ₀ = 500x̄ = 501.4s = 4n = 64
t =
6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
z −2.57602.576

A sample of 64 measurements has mean 101.7. The population standard deviation is 8. Find the lower limit L of the 99% confidence interval for the mean.

x̄ = 101.7σ = 8n = 6499%
L =
7.Linear regression & correlationMedium
xy33954775896711751383xy510406080

The table gives 6 paired observations of x = advertising spend in k€ and y = sales in k€. Find Pearson's correlation coefficient r.

n = 6
r =
8.Linear regression & correlationHard
xy2941862583210391246xy5102040x = 11

The table gives 6 paired observations of x = load in kN and y = extension in mm. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. Predict ŷ for x = 11.

n = 6x = 11
ŷ =
9.Chi-square testsMedium
lowmediumhighTotalurban15352373rural11281655Total266339128

The contingency table shows observed counts. For a chi-square test of independence, find the expected count E for the cell “urban, low”.

row total = 73column total = 26N = 128
E =
10.Chi-square testsHard
dfα = 0.05α = 0.0113.8416.63525.9919.21037.81511.34549.48813.277511.07015.086612.59216.812714.06718.475815.50720.090916.91921.6661018.30723.209

A chi-square test of independence is carried out on a contingency table with 2 rows and 6 columns (not counting the totals). Using the table, find the critical value χ²crit at significance level α = 0.05.

α = 0.05
χ²crit =

3Solutions

1.Normal distribution

Answer: P = 0.9772

Sums and differences of normal variables: if X and Y are independent and normal, X + Y and X − Y are normal too. Means add or subtract: E(X ± Y) = μX ± μY. Variances always add, also for a difference: Var(X ± Y) = σX² + σY², so σ = √(σX² + σY²). Standard deviations never add directly. The total of n independent items with the same distribution has mean n·μ and standard deviation σ·√n. Then standardise as usual: z = (x − mean)/σ and read Φ(z).

Distribution of the total

μT = 400 kg, σT = 0.5·√16 = 2 kg

Standardise

z = (404 − 400)/2 = 2

Probability

P = Φ(2) = 0.9772

Answer

P = 0.9772
2.Normal distribution

Answer: x = 551 h

From an area back to z: Φ(z) is the area to the left of z. For a left-tail area A, find z with Φ(z) = A in the table. A right-tail area A means Φ(z) = 1 − A. A central area A between −z and z leaves (1 − A)/2 in each tail, so Φ(z) = (1 + A)/2. For a value x, use x = μ + zσ.

Area to the left

Φ(z) = 0.9

z from the table

z ≈ 1.28

Back to the original units

x = 500 + 1.28·40 = 551 h

Answer

x = 551 h
3.Confidence intervals

Answer: E = 9.332

Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.

Critical value

df = n − 1 = 11, t = 1.796

Margin of error

E = 1.796·18/√12 = 9.332

Answer

E = 9.332
4.Confidence intervals

Answer: n = 1245

Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.

Solve for n

n = (1.96·36/2)² = 1245

Round up

A sample size is a whole number, and rounding down would make the margin too large.

n = 1245

Answer

n = 1245
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: t = 2.8

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Standard error

SE = 4/√64 = 4/8 = 0.5

Test statistic

t = (501.4 − 500)/0.5 = 2.8

Answer

t = 2.8
t0.025; df = 63 = 1.998

|t| > 1.998, so H₀ is rejected at the 5% level (two-sided).

6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: L = 99.12

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Margin of error

E = 2.576·8/√64 = 2.576

Interval limit

L = 101.7 − 2.576 = 99.12

Answer

L = 99.12
7.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: r = 0.9986

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 48/6 = 8
ȳ = 369/6 = 61.5

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 70
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 313
Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² = 1404

Correlation coefficient

r = 313/√(70·1404) = 0.9986

Answer

r = 0.9986
8.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: ŷ = 42.74

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 42/6 = 7
ȳ = 169/6 = 28.17

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 70
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 255

Regression line

b = 255/70 = 3.643
a = 28.17 − 3.643·7 = 2.667
ŷ = 2.667 + 3.643·x

Prediction

ŷ = 2.667 + 3.643·11 = 42.74

Answer

ŷ = 42.74
9.Chi-square tests

Answer: E = 14.83

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected count

E = 73·26/128 = 14.83

Answer

E = 14.83
10.Chi-square tests

Answer: χ²crit = 11.07

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Degrees of freedom

df = (2 − 1)·(6 − 1) = 5

Table

χ²crit(df = 5, α = 0.05) = 11.070

Answer

χ²crit = 11.070

Reject H₀ if the computed χ² is larger than this value.

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