Statistics 2: Statistical Inference: cram pack

Formula sheets, the key method steps for every topic and 10 practice problems, with full solutions at the back.

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1Formulas and methods

Normal distribution

z-score
z = (x − μ)/σ
Below x
P(X < x) = Φ(z)
Above x
P(X > x) = 1 − Φ(z)
Between
Φ(z2) − Φ(z1)
Percentile
x = μ + z·σ

Method

  1. Convert the value to a z-score: z = (x − μ)/σ.
  2. Look up Φ(z), the area to the left of z.
  3. For the area to the right use 1 − Φ(z); for an interval subtract the two left areas.
  4. For a percentile, work backwards: find z for the area, then x = μ + z·σ.

Confidence intervals

σ known
x̄ ± z·σ/√n
σ unknown
x̄ ± t·s/√n, df = n − 1
Critical z
90%: 1.645, 95%: 1.96, 99%: 2.576
Sample size
n = (z·σ/E)², rounded up

Method

  1. Decide between z (population σ known) and t (only the sample s, with n − 1 degrees of freedom).
  2. Find the critical value for the confidence level.
  3. Margin of error: E = critical value × standard deviation/√n.
  4. Interval: x̄ ± E.

Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

z-test for a mean
z = (x̄ − μ0)/(σ/√n)
t-test for a mean
t = (x̄ − μ0)/(s/√n), df = n − 1
Two-sided at 5%
reject H0 if |z| > 1.96
Confidence interval
x̄ ± z·σ/√n

Method

  1. State H₀ and H₁ and decide whether the test is one- or two-sided.
  2. Calculate the test statistic: (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n), or with s and t.
  3. Compare with the critical value, or find the p-value.
  4. Reject H₀ if the statistic is beyond the critical value (p below α), and state the conclusion in words.

Linear regression & correlation

Sums of squares
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = Σx² − (Σx)²/n, Sxy = Σxy − ΣxΣy/n
Slope
b = Sxy/Sxx
Intercept
a = ȳ − b·x̄
Correlation
r = Sxy/√(SxxSyy)
Residual
e = y − ŷ

Chi-square tests

Test statistic
χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E
Goodness of fit
E = n·p, df = k − 1 − (estimated parameters)
Independence
E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1)
Critical values (α = 0.05)
df 1: 3.841, 2: 5.991, 3: 7.815, 4: 9.488
Decision
reject H0 if χ² > χ²crit

2Practice problems

1.Normal distributionMedium
−3−2−10123zshaded area to the right of z = 0.9838

Drag z so that the shaded area under the standard normal curve, to the right of z, is 0.9838. Find z to two decimals.

A = 0.9838
z =
2.Normal distributionHard
μ = 178x = ?90%

The heights of adult men are normally distributed with mean 178 cm and standard deviation 7 cm. Find the value x below which 90% of them lie (the 90th percentile).

μ = 178σ = 7P = 90%
x = cm
3.Confidence intervalsMedium
n = 9, s = 6.5L = ?Ux̄ = 47.5E99%

A sample of 9 items has mean 47.5 and standard deviation s = 6.5. The population is roughly normal. Find the lower limit of the 99% confidence interval for the mean.

n = 9x̄ = 47.5s = 6.599%t(8) = 3.355
lower limit =
4.Confidence intervalsHard
μ₁ − μ₂, t(10) = 2.2280L = ?Ux̄₁ − x̄₂E95%

Two fertilisers are tested. Plot group 1: 5 plots, mean yield 96.5 kg, standard deviation 6.5 kg. Plot group 2: 7 plots, mean 94.5 kg, standard deviation 2 kg. Assume equal variances (pooled t, df = n₁ + n₂ − 2). Find the lower limit of the 95% confidence interval for μ₁ − μ₂.

n₁ = 5x̄₁ = 96.5s₁ = 6.5n₂ = 7x̄₂ = 94.5s₂ = 295%t(10) = 2.228
lower limit = kg
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
−2.0642.064t = ?df = 24

Two teaching methods are compared. Group 1: 10 students, mean score 66.5, standard deviation 7. Group 2: 16 students, mean score 71.7, standard deviation 9.5. Assume equal population variances and use the pooled two-sample t test. Find the test statistic t for H₀: μ₁ = μ₂, taking the difference as x̄₁ − x̄₂ (group 1 minus group 2).

n₁ = 10x̄₁ = 66.5s₁ = 7n₂ = 16x̄₂ = 71.7s₂ = 9.5
t =
6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
z −2.57602.576

A sample of 49 measurements has mean 500.1. The population standard deviation is 8. Find the upper limit U of the 99% confidence interval for the mean.

x̄ = 500.1σ = 8n = 4999%
U =
7.Linear regression & correlationMedium
xy344443545647746849xy468444648

The table gives 6 paired observations of x = advertising spend in k€ and y = sales in k€. Find the coefficient of determination r² of the least-squares line.

n = 6
r² =
8.Linear regression & correlationHard
xy1283415517589691182xy510406080ŷ = 75

The table gives 6 paired observations of x = advertising spend in k€ and y = sales in k€. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. For which value x does the line predict ŷ = 75?

n = 6ŷ = 75
x =
9.Chi-square testsMedium
lowmediumhighTotalurban10181745rural45232189Total554138134

The contingency table shows observed counts. For a chi-square test of independence, find the expected count E for the cell “rural, high”.

row total = 89column total = 38N = 134
E =
10.Chi-square testsHard

A chi-square goodness-of-fit test compares observed counts in 7 categories with fully specified expected proportions (no parameters are estimated from the data). How many degrees of freedom df does the test have?

k = 7
df =

3Solutions

1.Normal distribution

Answer: z = −2.14

From an area back to z: Φ(z) is the area to the left of z. For a left-tail area A, find z with Φ(z) = A in the table. A right-tail area A means Φ(z) = 1 − A. A central area A between −z and z leaves (1 − A)/2 in each tail, so Φ(z) = (1 + A)/2. For a value x, use x = μ + zσ.

Area to the left of z

Φ(z) = 1 − 0.9838 = 0.0162

Read the z-table backwards

Find 0.0162 inside the table and read off z.

z = −2.14

Answer

z = −2.14
2.Normal distribution

Answer: x = 187 cm

Normal distribution: convert a value x to a z-score, z = (x − μ)/σ, which counts standard deviations from the mean. A z-table (or Φ(z)) gives the area to the left of z, which is P(X < x). The area to the right is 1 − Φ(z), and the area between two values is the difference of their two areas.

z for the percentile

Φ(z) = 0.9 → z = 1.282

Back to x

x = 178 + 1.282·7 = 186.97 cm

Answer

x = 186.97 cm
3.Confidence intervals

Answer: lower limit = 40.23

Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.

Critical value

df = n − 1 = 8, t = 3.355

Margin of error

E = 3.355·6.5/√9 = 7.269

Interval

47.5 ± 7.269 → [40.23, 54.77]

Answer

lower limit = 40.23
4.Confidence intervals

Answer: lower limit = −3.731 kg

Interval for a difference: estimate ± critical value × standard error. For two independent means with known σ: SE = √(σ₁²/n₁ + σ₂²/n₂) and z. With equal unknown variances: pooled s_p and t with n₁ + n₂ − 2 degrees of freedom. For paired data, work with the differences: d̄ ± t·s_d/√n.

Pooled standard deviation

sp² = (4·6.5² + 6·2²)/10 = 19.3
sp = 4.393

Margin of error

E = 2.228·4.393·√(1/5 + 1/7) = 5.731

Interval

2 ± 5.731 → [−3.731, 7.731]

Answer

lower limit = −3.731 kg
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: t = −1.492

Hypothesis test: the test statistic = (estimate − value under H₀)/(standard error under H₀). The p-value is the probability, assuming H₀ is true, of a statistic at least as extreme as the one observed: the area in one tail for a one-sided H₁, twice the tail area for a two-sided H₁. Reject H₀ when p ≤ α.

Pooled variance

sp² = (9·7² + 15·9.5²)/24 = 74.78
sp = 8.648

Standard error

SE = 8.648·√(1/10 + 1/16) = 3.486

Test statistic

t = (66.5 − 71.7)/3.486 = −1.492

Answer

t = −1.492

With df = 24, the two-sided 5% critical value is 2.064; |t| is smaller, so H₀ is not rejected.

6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: U = 503

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Margin of error

E = 2.576·8/√49 = 2.944

Interval limit

U = 500.1 + 2.944 = 503

Answer

U = 503
7.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: r² = 0.7935

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 33/6 = 5.5
ȳ = 274/6 = 45.67

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 17.5
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 18
Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² = 23.33

Coefficient of determination

r² = 18²/(17.5·23.33) = 0.7935

Answer

r² = 0.7935

About 79.35% of the variation in y is explained by the line.

8.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: x = 9.91

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 36/6 = 6
ȳ = 329/6 = 54.83

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 70
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 361

Regression line

b = 361/70 = 5.157
a = 54.83 − 5.157·6 = 23.89
ŷ = 23.89 + 5.157·x

Solve for x

x = (75 − 23.89)/5.157 = 9.91

Answer

x = 9.91
9.Chi-square tests

Answer: E = 25.24

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected count

E = 89·38/134 = 25.24

Answer

E = 25.24
10.Chi-square tests

Answer: df = 6

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Degrees of freedom

df = 7 − 1 = 6

Answer

df = 6

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