Statistics 2: Statistical Inference: cram pack

Formula sheets, the key method steps for every topic and 10 practice problems, with full solutions at the back.

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1Formulas and methods

Normal distribution

z-score
z = (x − μ)/σ
Below x
P(X < x) = Φ(z)
Above x
P(X > x) = 1 − Φ(z)
Between
Φ(z2) − Φ(z1)
Percentile
x = μ + z·σ

Method

  1. Convert the value to a z-score: z = (x − μ)/σ.
  2. Look up Φ(z), the area to the left of z.
  3. For the area to the right use 1 − Φ(z); for an interval subtract the two left areas.
  4. For a percentile, work backwards: find z for the area, then x = μ + z·σ.

Confidence intervals

σ known
x̄ ± z·σ/√n
σ unknown
x̄ ± t·s/√n, df = n − 1
Critical z
90%: 1.645, 95%: 1.96, 99%: 2.576
Sample size
n = (z·σ/E)², rounded up

Method

  1. Decide between z (population σ known) and t (only the sample s, with n − 1 degrees of freedom).
  2. Find the critical value for the confidence level.
  3. Margin of error: E = critical value × standard deviation/√n.
  4. Interval: x̄ ± E.

Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

z-test for a mean
z = (x̄ − μ0)/(σ/√n)
t-test for a mean
t = (x̄ − μ0)/(s/√n), df = n − 1
Two-sided at 5%
reject H0 if |z| > 1.96
Confidence interval
x̄ ± z·σ/√n

Method

  1. State H₀ and H₁ and decide whether the test is one- or two-sided.
  2. Calculate the test statistic: (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n), or with s and t.
  3. Compare with the critical value, or find the p-value.
  4. Reject H₀ if the statistic is beyond the critical value (p below α), and state the conclusion in words.

Linear regression & correlation

Sums of squares
Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = Σx² − (Σx)²/n, Sxy = Σxy − ΣxΣy/n
Slope
b = Sxy/Sxx
Intercept
a = ȳ − b·x̄
Correlation
r = Sxy/√(SxxSyy)
Residual
e = y − ŷ

Chi-square tests

Test statistic
χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E
Goodness of fit
E = n·p, df = k − 1 − (estimated parameters)
Independence
E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1)
Critical values (α = 0.05)
df 1: 3.841, 2: 5.991, 3: 7.815, 4: 9.488
Decision
reject H0 if χ² > χ²crit

2Practice problems

1.Normal distributionMedium
340 kg364 kgT = X₁ + … + X₄?

The masses of passengers with luggage are independent and normal with mean 85 kg and standard deviation 12 kg. Find the probability P that the total mass of 4 of them exceeds 364 kg. Round z to two decimals.

μ = 85 kgσ = 12 kgn = 4> 364 kg
P =
2.Normal distributionHard
μ = 32x = ?90%

The delivery times are normally distributed with mean 32 min and standard deviation 6 min. Find the value x below which 90% of them lie (the 90th percentile).

μ = 32σ = 6P = 90%
x = min
3.Confidence intervalsMedium
n = 16, sd​ = 3.10L = ?Ud̄ = 5E90%

The blood pressure of 16 patients is measured before and after a treatment. The differences d = before − after (mmHg) have mean 5 and standard deviation 3.1. Find the lower limit of the 90% confidence interval for the mean difference.

n = 16d̄ = 5sd = 3.190%t(15) = 1.753
lower limit = mmHg
4.Confidence intervalsHard
σ = 16, n = ?x̄ − Ex̄ + Ex̄E = 195%

The population standard deviation is 16. How large a sample n do you need so that a 95% confidence interval for the mean has a margin of error of at most 1?

σ = 16E = 195%
n =
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsMedium
t −2.06402.064

A sample of 25 students has a mean score of 46.48 and a sample standard deviation of 8. Find the test statistic t for H₀: μ = 50.

μ₀ = 50x̄ = 46.48s = 8n = 25
t =
6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervalsHard
z −1.9601.96

A sample of 100 measurements has mean 498.3. The population standard deviation is 12. Find the lower limit L of the 95% confidence interval for the mean.

x̄ = 498.3σ = 12n = 10095%
L =
7.Linear regression & correlationMedium
xy185221682473279530104xy2025306080100

The table gives 5 paired observations of x = temperature in °C and y = ice creams sold. Find the coefficient of determination r² of the least-squares line.

n = 5
r² =
8.Linear regression & correlationHard
xy262371470578690xy24660708090x = 3.5

The table gives 5 paired observations of x = hours studied and y = exam score. Use the least-squares line ŷ = a + b·x. A new observation (3.5, 75) is made. Find its residual e = y − ŷ.

n = 5(3.5, 75)
e =
9.Chi-square testsMedium
no defectminormajorTotalday shift414125107night shift14112045Total555245152

The contingency table shows observed counts. For a chi-square test of independence, find the expected count E for the cell “day shift, minor”.

row total = 107column total = 52N = 152
E =
10.Chi-square testsHard

A chi-square goodness-of-fit test compares observed counts in 8 categories with fully specified expected proportions (no parameters are estimated from the data). How many degrees of freedom df does the test have?

k = 8
df =

3Solutions

1.Normal distribution

Answer: P = 0.1587

Sums and differences of normal variables: if X and Y are independent and normal, X + Y and X − Y are normal too. Means add or subtract: E(X ± Y) = μX ± μY. Variances always add, also for a difference: Var(X ± Y) = σX² + σY², so σ = √(σX² + σY²). Standard deviations never add directly. The total of n independent items with the same distribution has mean n·μ and standard deviation σ·√n. Then standardise as usual: z = (x − mean)/σ and read Φ(z).

Distribution of the total

μT = 340 kg, σT = 12·√4 = 24 kg

Standardise

z = (364 − 340)/24 = 1

Probability

P = 1 − Φ(1) = 0.1587

Answer

P = 0.1587
2.Normal distribution

Answer: x = 39.69 min

Normal distribution: convert a value x to a z-score, z = (x − μ)/σ, which counts standard deviations from the mean. A z-table (or Φ(z)) gives the area to the left of z, which is P(X < x). The area to the right is 1 − Φ(z), and the area between two values is the difference of their two areas.

z for the percentile

Φ(z) = 0.9 → z = 1.282

Back to x

x = 32 + 1.282·6 = 39.69 min

Answer

x = 39.69 min
3.Confidence intervals

Answer: lower limit = 3.641 mmHg

Interval for a difference: estimate ± critical value × standard error. For two independent means with known σ: SE = √(σ₁²/n₁ + σ₂²/n₂) and z. With equal unknown variances: pooled s_p and t with n₁ + n₂ − 2 degrees of freedom. For paired data, work with the differences: d̄ ± t·s_d/√n.

Critical value

df = 15, t = 1.753

Margin of error

E = 1.753·3.1/√16 = 1.359

Interval

5 ± 1.359 → [3.641, 6.359]

Answer

lower limit = 3.641 mmHg
4.Confidence intervals

Answer: n = 984

Confidence interval for a mean: x̄ ± margin of error. With a known population σ the margin is z·σ/√n; with only the sample standard deviation s, use t with n − 1 degrees of freedom: t·s/√n. Critical values: z = 1.645 (90%), 1.96 (95%), 2.576 (99%). To get a margin E or smaller, you need n ≥ (z·σ/E)², rounded up.

Solve for n

n = (1.96·16/1)² = 983.4

Round up

A sample size is a whole number, and rounding down would make the margin too large.

n = 984

Answer

n = 984
5.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: t = −2.2

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Standard error

SE = 8/√25 = 8/5 = 1.6

Test statistic

t = (46.48 − 50)/1.6 = −2.2

Answer

t = −2.2
t0.025; df = 24 = 2.064

|t| > 2.064, so H₀ is rejected at the 5% level (two-sided).

6.Hypothesis tests & confidence intervals

Answer: L = 495.9

Testing a mean: the test statistic measures how many standard errors the sample mean lies from the value claimed in H₀: z = (x̄ − μ₀)/(σ/√n) when σ is known, t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) when it is estimated from the sample. A confidence interval is x̄ ± (critical value)·(standard error).

Margin of error

E = 1.96·12/√100 = 2.352

Interval limit

L = 498.3 − 2.352 = 495.9

Answer

L = 495.9
7.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: r² = 0.9722

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 120/5 = 24
ȳ = 392/5 = 78.4

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 90
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 393
Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² = 1765

Coefficient of determination

r² = 393²/(90·1765) = 0.9722

Answer

r² = 0.9722

About 97.22% of the variation in y is explained by the line.

8.Linear regression & correlation

Answer: e = 3.95

Least-squares regression: with x̄ and ȳ the means, Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)², Syy = Σ(y − ȳ)² and Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ), the line ŷ = a + b·x has slope b = Sxy/Sxx and intercept a = ȳ − b·x̄, so it always passes through (x̄, ȳ). Pearson's correlation coefficient r = Sxy/√(Sxx·Syy) lies between −1 and 1; r² is the fraction of the variation in y explained by the line.

Means

x̄ = 20/5 = 4
ȳ = 371/5 = 74.2

Sums of squares and products

Sxx = Σ(x − x̄)² = 10
Sxy = Σ(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 63

Regression line

b = 63/10 = 6.3
a = 74.2 − 6.3·4 = 49
ŷ = 49 + 6.3·x

Predicted value

ŷ = 49 + 6.3·3.5 = 71.05

Residual

e = 75 − 71.05 = 3.95

Answer

e = 3.95

The point lies above the line.

9.Chi-square tests

Answer: E = 36.61

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Expected count

E = 107·52/152 = 36.61

Answer

E = 36.61
10.Chi-square tests

Answer: df = 7

Chi-square tests: compare observed counts O with the counts E expected under H₀ using χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E. Goodness of fit: E = n·p for each category, df = k − 1 (minus one more for each parameter estimated from the data). Independence in an r × c table: E = row total × column total / grand total, df = (r − 1)(c − 1). Reject H₀ when χ² exceeds the critical value for the chosen α.

Degrees of freedom

df = 8 − 1 = 7

Answer

df = 7

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